From the chart, I'm not seeing it. From the few sunspots and their latitude, it's a possibility. From the hemispheric activity, it's too early to tell if it will be dual-peaked - but from past history, it probably will be. Top 5 after a previous bust? When has that ever happened? Not likely.
We'llsee what it will be, for the rest improve your antenna's if possible and trust more on your operator skill and hope conditions will be good for us.
I've only been a licensed ham since 2014 but I've been in radio since the 80's. I've lived in Alaska and learned all about the HARP project and I understand the science behind good DX and the suns activity. I wonder, if the suns effects on our atmosphere make for good DX, why cant all the hams around the world turn our power output up to the maximum and ionize our atmosphere from within rather than waiting on the sun to do it for us? Just a thought hi, hi...
The McIntosh team bases their work on a new variable that drives the sunspots, the Hale Cycle, not “just” the mathematical tool of the Hilbert Transform. Like most mathematics and statistics, it only assists in the understanding of the data. Unlike most all other analyses and predictions of the Sunspot Cycle, this team uses new theory and data to reach their conclusions. Read the paper...this explanation goes with the graphic posted by the OP: “The Inferred latitude versus time evolution of the magnetic activity bands and termination events of the 22-year Hale cycle over the past 22 years. Top: Hemispheric and total sunspot number of the recent cycles 23 and 24. Vertical lines show the termination events of cycle 22, 23, and (predicted) 24, which are followed by a rapid rise in solar activity. Bottom: A conceptual drawing of the hypothesized activity bands of M2014 that are the underlying structure of the extended solar cycle. The indicated separation between the cycle 22 and 23 terminators provides a predictor for the cycle 24 amplitude, while likewise the separation between the observed cycle 23 terminator and the predicted cycle 24 terminator provides a method to forecast cycle 25.“ “Their prediction is based on the use of the discrete "Hilbert transform" to explore the relationship between magnetic activity cycle band overlap (via terminator separation) and the amplitude of (resulting) sunspot cycles. (All of which I'm completely unfamiliar with.)“ My interview with Dr. McIntosh appears in an upcoming episode of the ICQ Podcast (ICQPodcast.com).
Hi Rod, it’s an audio podcast...usually making the QRZ.com front page...and is located at ICQPodcast.com. I’m just one of a dozen presenters...
My interview with Dr. Scott McIntosh is now scheduled as the feature in the nexpiside of the ICQ Podcast, dropping this Sunday. See ICQPodcast.com...
Hi Mark, If you'll notice, this co-author is in the Time Series Center at the LSE. If you'll think about it, having a scientist who studies and does analytical methods for time series analysis might be a good thing to have on board an analysis of Sunspots, no?
Note from the "official" predictions from back in 2009: "It turns out that none of the models were really correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. NASA’s lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way." https://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/solarcycle24.html Read the paper cited by the OP...and listen to my feature interview with Dr. McIntosh at https://www.icqpodcast.com/download...t-episode-332-exciting-bumper-new-solar-cycle. 73, Frank K4FMH
Update from the team at NCAR that wrote the paper: https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2021/06/11/the-termination-event/
