Maybe there's hope for cycle 25?

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by W5UAA, Aug 1, 2020.

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  1. W5UAA

    W5UAA Ham Member QRZ Page

    TerminatorSeparation.jpg

    Five scientists associated with National Center for Atmospheric Research, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Maryland Department of Astronomy, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, School of Engineering and Innovation are making a bold prediction about Solar Cycle 25.

    In the June 27, 2020 document titled “Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude” they write:

    “... we deduce that sunspot cycle 25 will have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude.”

    Their prediction is based on the use of the discrete "Hilbert transform" to explore the relationship between magnetic activity cycle band overlap (via terminator separation) and the amplitude of (resulting) sunspot cycles. (All of which I'm completely unfamiliar with.)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert_transform

    They predict with 95% confidence that the cycle 25 amplitude will fall between 153 and 305 spots. This would be in the top five of those observed. There method predicts that SC25 will probably be among the strongest solar cycles ever observed, and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (116 spots) and most likely stronger than the previous.

    Their prediction model differs from most others prediction models. These other prediction models assume magnetic fields are dynamically passive with respect to the large-scale flows, or are “frozen-in,” using magnetohydrodynamical terminology.

    Conversely, an explanation for the hemispherically synchronized, rapid, “triggering” of mid- and high-latitude magnetic flux emergence following termination events at the solar equator, requires that the magnetic bands of the Hale magnetic cycle are strong and are dynamically important relative to the flows.

    Currently, very early indications of the spot pattern are appearing at higher than average latitudes. Historically, high latitude spot emergence has been associated with the development of large amplitude sunspot cycles.

    Is this a false hope for the coming sun spot cycle? Time will tell.

    If you want to read how they came about making this prediction, you can check out the details at:

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf
     
    NJ1S, KW4BY, KA0VNV and 16 others like this.
  2. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    This must surely sound confusing to those who have seen all the dire, negative predictions of a dead Cycle 25.

    Let me use a simple analogy--

    Imagine a waveform form of three out-of-phase frequency components. You measure the overall wave and not the individual components. Note that slight translations in phase of one or two of the frequencies has a profound effect on the overall waveform: it can make it with minimum amplitude; it can produce a moderate Q but hi amplitude peak instead.

    That is similar to what is happening here.

    Nothing magic about a (fractional)Hilbert Transform ( a type of fractal analysis BTW) or a Mellin transform for that matter. Its the phasing of the components that is unknown and creating such a variety of potential outcomes--and thus the great unknown of Cycle 25:)

    What we call the Sunspot Cycle, is a naive x vs y plot of what's going on, and its the additional aspects that drive the prediction, not sunspot numbers versus time. That X vs y is a nice way to look at it but not a good way to predict.

    73
    Chip W1YW
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2020
    KX9DX, KM6DYO, KC7ES and 4 others like this.
  3. AJ5J

    AJ5J Ham Member QRZ Page

    Still works for me. I've been suffering from a vitamin Dx deficiency for what seems like eons.
     
    AD4ZU, N4IY, W4YBO and 17 others like this.
  4. K6VOX

    K6VOX XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    That seems on par with the current Covid-19 predictions.......
     
    KF4ZKU, NY6P, WA8MEA and 6 others like this.
  5. 2E0RLR

    2E0RLR Ham Member QRZ Page

    All I can say I hope they are correct on this one!

    I have been saying for months following Tamitha that the predictions for SS25 were complete rubbish!
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2020 at 6:20 AM
  6. YO3GFH

    YO3GFH XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Like agent Mulder used to say, I want to believe!
    :)
     
    AD4ZU, KF4ZKU, W5HEH and 2 others like this.
  7. KN6CSB

    KN6CSB Ham Member QRZ Page

    Until I can work DX with 5 watts and a wet string like the old stories say, I won't believe a thing :p:eek:
     
    AD4ZU, K5PSN, KF4ZKU and 18 others like this.
  8. G3SEA

    G3SEA Ham Member QRZ Page

    Nice to have some sort of positive outlook on a very complex subject.
    The lads atop Haleakala on Maui will be keeping an eye out on these developments with the World's Biggest Solar Telescope.
    G3SEA/KH6 :cool:
     
    G0KDT and AJ5J like this.
  9. G4OBB

    G4OBB Ham Member QRZ Page

    Fingers and Toes crossed eh chaps?
     
    KF4ZKU, NX6ED, AJ5J and 2 others like this.
  10. HA3FLT

    HA3FLT Ham Member QRZ Page

    I can't judge the probabilities but I'm sure you all know Dr. Zharkova and her "double dynamo" theory...

    Just to put this new study in perspective, Dr. Zharkova says that we are on the verge of a new grand minimum. Its exact effect on the climate is also unclear, but they speak about a major cooling, a small ice age, etc. - I don't follow them.

    Dr. Zharkova states that her model covers 97 percent of the real data of Sun's activity we collected so far. I think the researchers of this area take her seriously, because they give 5 percent to the occurence of happening such a minimum soon as a consensus.

    Since this paper states it is 95 percent accurate as well, I'm really curious how big score it is going to hit there...
     

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