I remember working DX with 25 watt SSB HTX 100 and A mag mound 10 meter antenna. From the parking lot to Isola Italy, 5/9 both ways , it happens.
I will graciously accept whatever number of sunspots are coaxed out of the new cycle. And adapt to whatever conditions may be.
It's still television. Although many stations moved to UHF for the digital transition, all the VHF channels remained allocated to television. Now that channels 38 through 51 have been removed, many stations had to move back to VHF. Here's the number of full power TV stations by channel. High VHF (channels 7 through 13) are just as populated as UHF channels now. Code: 2 = 11 3 = 8 4 = 9 5 = 22 6 = 10 7 = 67 8 = 67 9 = 59 10 = 65 11 = 64 12 = 58 13 = 70 14 = 34 15 = 72 16 = 63 17 = 69 18 = 65 19 = 69 20 = 71 21 = 71 22 = 77 23 = 75 24 = 79 25 = 61 26 = 66 27 = 71 28 = 66 29 = 65 30 = 55 31 = 66 32 = 61 33 = 61 34 = 64 35 = 58 36 = 92
If this prediction is true, I'll put the IC-7800 on the shelf and and dust off the Ocean Hopper/DX40 and have some fun like I did in SC19.
K1NVY, That sure would be fun to work dx with a 60 plus year old rig but I think as analog mode popularity goes, we are in the minority. Even if the solar #'s hit greater than 200 and we have some real F2 as high as 6 meters, I'm sure that all the activity will still be on 50.313MHZ only because it takes no effort and not many can remember how a microphone or a cw key works.
My solar cycle 25 forecast is for a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 50. But I really hope it's wrong. I don't have allot of years left on the blue marble and I would like to see 6, 10 and 12 meters open up again one last time.
As good hams we should all vow to never take down any antenna unless it needs maintenance, repair, replacement with one better, or the QTH is being changed. "What goes aloft stays aloft" could be our new motto! One can never have too many antennas. Double 73, Jeff PS: I'll also add I do think it's getting better already; a couple of weeks ago I easily worked Scotland and Spain using 50 watts ssb and a Marconi at my usual portable operating spots here on the Gulf. Great signals both ways and if the chap in the Hebrides hadn't been going QRT (after midnight his time) we could have had a long ragchew conditions were so good. The solar flux was still only in the high sixties, too---I was kind of amazed---and now I am hungry for more.
IMO--kindly keep your comments on topic to the OP. This is not a COVID thread and has no relevance to the SC25. Perhaps some quick 'science' comments may assist you-- Science is not belief-based. The SC25 prediction is based on the limited available data. If more data within the multiphasic space was available, there would be no degeneracy or ambiguity on/of the solution. The notion of 'faith' is not one whom the authors nor the OP introduced here. 73 Chip W1YW
I will trust anything Chip has to say . . . I like to be around people a lot smarter and well informed than me.
Was reading the other day about predictions Prior to 24 and 97% of the experts were saying it would be better than cycle 23 and they totally whiffed on that prediction. Several years into 24 they changed their data and PREdiction and pulled down their previous predictions. Not to mention all the other wild predictions from nationally paid experts world wide. Nothing like waiting until the hurricane passes over to tell you how strong the winds are going to be and how good their model was! There are forces at work that they are not as of yet able to measure and other variables so they are really just guessing especially if they get to tell you who is going to win the horse race 1 foot before they cross the finish line. Tune in 5 years from now for my Rasputin like prediction of cycle 25.
Always trust your own ability to make judgements. Just make sure you have enough info to proceed. You know this John MO. Yours may differ. 73 Chip W1YW
I first published the following on February 1, 2008. W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point. Solar minimum will begin later in 2019-2020 and may last longer than any previous solar cycle minimum in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another “Dalton” type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent. During solar minimum 160-30 meters will be okay. 20 meters will be marginal especially on long paths. It's 17-6 meters that will be affected the worst by no sunspot groups. But if the approaching solar minimum is to low and to long then 160 meter propagation conditions may suffer also due to more incoming galactic cosmic rays that over ionize the D layer. I was not part of the scientific consensus for the recent solar cycle 25 forecast. I believe that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than solar cycle 24. Solar cycle 25 may be very weak (SSN <50) much like the Dalton minimum that occurred in the first half of the 1800's.
