Solar Cycle 25 "heating up faster than expected"

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by K5XS, Aug 3, 2021.

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  1. K5XS

    K5XS Ham Member QRZ Page


    Issued by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, the official forecast calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak in July 2025. However, a better fit to current data shows Solar Cycle 25 peaking in October 2024. This is just outside the 8-month error bars of the Panel's forecast.

    July 2021 was a remarkable month. Solar Cycle 25 crossed multiple thresholds, including its first X-flare and, at one point, 6 sunspots on the solar disk. The last time so many sunspots were seen at the same time was Sept. 2017.

    W3OY, N4FZ, PD0MUX and 11 others like this.
  2. M0YRX

    M0YRX Ham Member QRZ Page

    30 November 2020 20201130_HMIIF.jpg
    N4FZ and M1WML like this.
  3. N3EG

    N3EG Ham Member QRZ Page

    And my predictions are for a crazy wide spread double peak. Check out the photo above - almost nothing in the northern hemisphere. It will lag behind the south by a few years. Double peak = longer cycle activity, lower smoothed sunspot numbers. Cycle 24 would have been 50% higher if the peaks had lined up.
    N4FZ, GM4JPZ, K7SKE and 1 other person like this.
  4. M1WML

    M1WML Ham Member QRZ Page

    Facebook page been set up fot the upcoming solarcycle 25..
    N4FZ and 5B4API like this.
  5. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    The SFI remains at historical lows for the (now 1 year plus) onset of a new cycle. SFI's in the 70s are essentially feeble for the HF bands.

    Today, for example, the SFI is 73. Yuk.

    I keep on saying I will get the rig up and crackin when the SFI hits 95+. Which it did for a few hours a month ago:-(

    Yes, I will expect the usual comments about there is lots of DX around, but let's get real: poor conditions shouldn't suggest the anecdotes when we are looking for the trend:)

    Your opinion may differ.

    Chip W1YW
    OH1DY, N4FZ, N9MB and 8 others like this.
  6. KA1YBS

    KA1YBS XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    I am definitely excited about the cyclical changes coming to the bands, HOWEVER...

    Forecast, Schmorecast!

    I did mobile HF during the 2009 minimum, and hit VK land from New Hampshire with 100w while driving on Rt. 3 in Nashua...

    Just get on the air, the ether may surprise you.

    73 de KA1YBS
    SM6WWK, N7SBU, W0AMT and 18 others like this.
  7. W7UUU

    W7UUU Principal Moderator Lifetime Member 133 Administrator Volunteer Moderator Platinum Subscriber Life Member QRZ Page

    "Yep - that's a fine looking piece of candy. No question. But I don't believe the sugar content is high enough yet so I'm just going to wait a bit longer before I taste it again" ;)

    AA5BK, VE3EEI, K9VT and 7 others like this.
  8. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    I know it sounds cynical. It's just that there is so much on FT8 now, and so little DX prop otherwise for CW and SSB, that I don't want to feel discouraged when getting OTA. I am sure at least some others feel that way. Wish I didn't.

    Nothing an SFI of 100+ won't fix!

    Chip W1YW
    N4FZ, F8WBD, PU2OZT and 3 others like this.
  9. N1IPU

    N1IPU Ham Member QRZ Page

    Last week there was two massive releases on the other side of the sun. Once they rotated into view the areas were quiet. Don't know how long our luck will hold as the current sheet passes through. I do notice that propagation is fickle in comparison to earlier cycles and with our weakening magnetic field it may be hard to judge in the future. If your not up on the latest science take a gander at
    Whatever happens with this cycle it will be interesting.
    RZ1O, IZ0IRH and M1WML like this.
  10. KA0HCP

    KA0HCP XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    AA5BK, N6XJP, WA5VGO and 8 others like this.

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