Here's a comparison between the rise of Cycle 24 and the rise of Cycle 25. I tried to align them as best I could.
A good post from K5XS (imo) however the earlier peak from the data may only be because they are still trying to fit to the original amplitude forcast. This seems to be a rehash of something Lisa Upton ( predicted SC25 to be only 90% of SC24 ) put out sometime ago and besides the earlier maxmium date to the limit of their forcast the amplitude has also risen to the higher error range.It just appears to be laying the foundations for abit of ass covering later on IF SC25 is going to be in excess of 159 which based on the SSN comparison of SC10_24_25 wouldn't be an unrealistic figure . The Sun does what it wants not what humans predict.
Some people are always looking for that dose of Hopium shot into their veins. They can't survive without others feeding them sugar coated stories that make them feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Fact is humans existence is extremely miniscule compared to the Sun's age thus making it highly unlikely man can predict with any certainty of what will transpire. Just get on the air and be radio-active.
Holy words my friend. Not fried air but sausages! You have to stay on the radio for a long time, listen a lot, hone your technique, always train your ears which are the best filter, experiment and keep the soldering iron always on, not just be a button presser 73 Peppe
Yes, the majority do not take into account the weakening magnetic field. All bets are off when you add that in as we have no experience with it to factor in. A lot of unknowns coming on fast.
There have been a few teaser openings but, by in large, that SFI has remained low. I have experienced some surprises including being on the air during that X flare and seen a few DX contacts. Overall, propagation loves to be fickle so until the winter months return and I can be a night owl on the top band again, I will hunt for the openings. All good cheer and good DX
Nope. Never stopped being active daily on 12m, and many days of the week on 10m throughout the period. I don't agree with the sensationalist OP, but nevertheless, the old idea of bands being closed when the cycle is low is very clearly now dead. Main thing that keeps bands quieter is herd mentality and clinging onto those old ideas. Try sending a signal on an empty band, get a reply, then spot it on the cluster. Within minutes, your 'christmas tree' will light up nicely...
I guess this is good news. don't see much change here in Vermont, I mean a little bit. Seems like there is more CW on 40 now.
Don't take down your 160 to 40 meter antennas yet, HI Good DX K0UO Rhombic Antenna Farm is located at the Kansas QTH with over Two miles of Wire in the Air & On the Air, “The RF Gotta-Go-Somewhere"!
NASA: Solar Activity Forecast for Next Decade The forecast for this solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the last one, reaching its maximum in 2025. Irina Kitiashvili, a researcher with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Center, in California’s Silicon Valley, combined observations from two NASA space missions – the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory – with data collected since 1976 from the ground-based National Solar Observatory. Her method differs from other prediction tools in terms of the raw material for its forecast. Previously, researchers used the number of sunspots to represent indirectly the activity of the solar magnetic field. The new approach takes advantage of direct observations of magnetic fields emerging on the surface of the Sun – data which has only existed for the last four solar cycles. Mathematically combining the data from the three sources of Sun observations with the estimates of its interior activity generated a forecast designed to be more reliable than using any of those sources alone. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20190028769/downloads/20190028769.pdf https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20190028646/downloads/20190028646.pdf Bio Irina is a research fellow at NASA Ames Research Center. Her research pursuits include realistic-type numerical simulations of solar and stellar MHD phenomena, and prediction of solar activity using data assimilation methods. After earning a Ph.D. from Moscow State University, Russia, she worked as a research scientist at Engelgardt Astronomical Observatory, Kazan University. She worked as a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University’s Center for Turbulence Research, operated jointly with NASA, and then as a physical sciences research associate at Stanford’s W.W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory. Research Interests Irina’s current research interests include: developing numerical simulations of the solar and stellar dynamics and magnetism based on first-principle physics modeling and analysis of observational spectro-polarimetric data from NASA’s SDO mission, using massive parallel supercomputer systems. She is also interested in data assimilation approaches, which represent the synergy of dynamo models and observations, for prediction of solar activity and cycles. Her recent projects include investigations of magnetic self-organization in the turbulent plasma of the solar convection zone, the formation of compact magnetic structures (sunspots and pores), magnetized vortex tubes, plasma eruptions and local turbulent dynamo processes. She is also interested in the visualization and analysis of large datasets. See selected publications Contact Info: irina.n.kitiashvili@nasa.gov
https://www.nasa.gov/msfcsolar , NASA most likely (50%) stands at 143 (v2) for a predicted maximum amplitude atm although this will be updated around Thursday with July's data.
