It appears that the newer hams find the FT8/FT4/JS8CALL options make for quick gratification of the DX urge. And, that's exciting and cool. At some point, those new ops discover that maybe, they want to go portable to a park or mountain top, without lugging around the computer equipment needed to use those modes. And, they might develop the urge to have conversations while away from the home computer equipment. They then discover that Morse code via CW is not only a cool challenge, but an effective way to travel lightly, and accomplish DX more efficiently than using voice modes like Upper or Lower Side Band emissions. Thus is born, for them, the new journey into using Morse code as a means of discovering new excitement and satisfaction. Your mileage may vary.
Amateur radio is many things to many people, true. The art of Elmering is alive, though. Groups like CWOps, FISTS, and SKCC do a good job in mentoring interested amateur radio enthusiasts. Just like other pursuits of passion, like sail boating, many still find such pursuits worthy of time, effort, money, and promotion.
I run a modest station (100w max ssb) and joined the ham community only three years ago. I am learning morse, but only for the hell of it. Villify me if you will, but I personally think in 50 years (long afte I'm gone) Morse wil be a niche mode. The figures quoted earlier don't lie, unfortunately due to cycle, and technology, SSB is becoming a dying mode. FT8 rules the world whether you love it or hate it. The world and technology moves on. Rob
Computer equipment? You mean a smartphone, which they'll carry anyway just for its GPS/stored map capability, or a tiny 8oz. tablet, like the Samsung Galaxy Tab S4 or 6, whose battery can last for days? Because that's all you need to run most digital modes, including FT8, the most popular HF mode on the planet, at present. A laptop for hiking is a little behind the times (OK - WAY behind the times). And pretty much every modern radio is equipped with a USB/sound card interface, including the new and very portable IC-705 all mode HF/VHF/UHF "Shack in a box" QRP rig. So a little radio, a battery (or NO battery - the phone/tablet and IC-705 all contain their own) and a phone or (better) tablet and paperback sized EFHW-4010 wire antenna is all that's needed. Takes about 1/5th of a backpack to store, maybe less. Look online for tutorials. And stories by hikers doing this. Drop the CW key and the weight difference is negligable, as is size. And you can still run CW via the phone or tablet, if you like. Isn't there a survivalist/hiker/camper fellow who shows up regularly marching out in all weather with much more gear than this, who has a podcast that advertises on QRZ? Gentlemen - time to move into the 21st Century. CW is anything but dead - plenty of users still enjoy CW. And so should you if this is a mode you like and are skilled at. But the pool is shrinking. Despite the fun pastime of collecting keys, not too many CW operators still use them in favor of auto-keyed CW. Ironic. Doing this can be thought of as a "poor man's" version of FT8, manually read.
People love to gab. Talking is intrinsic to being a human (here's a fun thought exercise: https://www.bu.edu/wcp/Papers/OApp/OAppEgon.htm) Talking will never die. The Sun goes through cycles of activity. Even with no sunspot activity, there remain bands on which SSB communications always work. I'm not talking about VHF and higher frequencies, but on the shortwave and mediumwave frequencies. That has been proven--it is incontrovertible that during the extended sunspot cycle minimum between Cycle 23 and Cycle 24, propagation exists and supports even SSB communications. We learned a lot about propagation during that period. This truth is so profound, that the US Government -- military, specifically -- is allocating a vast amount of resources to new research. I live close to a military base, around which exist major corporate entities with teams of programmers, scientists, and other key player, dedicated to space weather forecasting, research, and how that impacts not just satellite communications, but… wait for it…. HF. HF is a big thing—especially voice comms, and interest in leveraging HF in every possible way is growing stronger in this decade. I interviewed for a job as a programmer for one of the teams dealing with space weather forecasting and HF propagation logistics, but I lacked a particular degree/educational requirement and did not end up on that team. This opportunity revealed to me how intrinsic HF is becoming in the arsenal of our military. This is just one supporting anecdote to the truth that voice and HF will stay married. It is dystopian fantasy that nature will devolve in such a way as to become a radio-hostile environment. Science does not support such a dire outlook. Even if global warming melts the polar caps, the ionosphere will still exist, and propagation will remain a core aspect of shortwave communications. Since talking will never conceivably cease being a distinguishing human existential activity, and because radio will always be a fundamental means of throwing one's voice far distances in the endeavor of making meaningful connections with other humans, I do not foresee SSB becoming a dying mode. I do see improvements in SDR, analog-to-digital conversion, and so on. Speech and radio both are human innovations that set humans apart from all the other animals. Humans will not devolve into mute, dumb animals. Progress, that's the pursuit of humans. But, speech and methods to extend the power and audience of the speaker will only improve, not disappear. Hello, smart phone. Some fun side-topic references: https://code7700.com/communications_hf.htm https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Weirdly-Quiet-Sun-May-Get-Even-Quieter-and-BTW-Earth-Still-Warming
I stand corrected, regarding the lugging around of computer equipment. Smart phones really have revolutionized portable ham radio. I applaud that. And the Raspberry/Arduino developments and their integrations with portable operations. Very cool. I do not think that FT8 is the most popular mode on the planet. That case cannot be made. If we count all of the licensed amateurs existing around the world and tallied the mode that they use most often, I don't think the FT8 mode comes out on top in terms of daily use. Yes, there is a very large active group, but they are just a group among the many. Tallying the modes used by every ham alive and active is impossible, though. Just like it is impossible to accurately count every SSB, Olivia, PSK31, MT63, etc., etc., modes in operation at every single moment in every day of the week. The spotting networks do not accurately measure modes not technically in the receiving arsenal of decoders at the receiver. We have a LONG way to go before we have a full network, world-wide, of decoders that can acurately track every mode, including voice modes, on HF.
You miss the point in my opinion. CW is not just a mode. It is a hobby unto itself. Ditching a key in favor of a phone or tablet would be like an equestrian ditching his horse for a motorbike. The key--and the skills involved in sending by hand and receiving by ear--is the whole point.
Bravo - nicely explained. Sail boats are loved because of the skill and art of sailing--the whole point.
Especially this sailing https://goldengloberace.com/ggr/ Sailors are allowed to use SSB, CW, provided they're licenced, and RadioFax, which was available at the time of the first edition, but NO ROUTEING at all. Some cheated in the previous race.
Ever since I got my Extra last year, I've wanted to learn CW. Just last month I completed my first CW Ops class and I am thrilled! Early days of course but I am excited to really learn the language of Morse code.
It might not be dead quite yet, but that's because we have a ton of people who learned CW for the test...they had to. When these people start retiring and becoming SK, will CW still be alive? I don't know. I highly doubt the number of people learning CW is going to be anywhere close to the number needed to replace these folks, but who knows? I learned CW to an extent simply because I wanted to. It isn't something I use regularly, outside of a contest here and there, but with the guys using 50+ wpm and refusing to slow down, I don't even find myself doing that anymore.
