Ham Talk Live! Episode 199 - State of the Hobby Survey

See ya there!

 

The last line of this is true, the rest is conjecture. To claim that the "vast majority" of ham licensees are under 50 is somewhat incredulous to most of us involved in the hobby to any extent.

When we consider that the median age in the USA is around 38 years old, and that includes children, it is easy to understand that ham radio operators average age will skew much higher than that, since the number of children under ten with licenses is very small compared with the number of hams ages 55-64. And the number of people in both of those age groups are similar (0-10 and 55-64).

While the survey may not be entirely accurate, I think it is relatively close, as far as age distribution. As a VE team member, I see far more people getting licensed above 50 than below 50. Far more. Same thing holds for people I personally know in amateur radio. At age 64, I tend to be one of the younger people participating, although there are a fair number from 45-64 also involved. The percent of hams I know that are under age 45 is probably around 20%, which is about what the above graph indicates.

The fact that you print something here in red does not make it true, it just makes it printed in red.

 

And the fact that you vented your own opinion means its just that--a single person's opinion.

Go dig out data bases in LINKEDIN; ULS w/birthdays (yes, they exist from prior years); ULS with new licensees; QRZed with hits; set up your sampling, define your selection biases, and do the work.

Not conjecture.

BUT--given the nonsense that N8RMA et al have dealt with, why would I possibly want my wife to answer drunken death threats on the phone --for example--when I report such a survey?

You think N8RMA is making that up about death threats and assorted abuse?

Nope.

I have dealt with that kind of stupid hostility a dozen times over 25 years.

Try inventing fractal antennas...and seeing the reaction from SOME hams...

No good deed goes unpunished.

N8RMA has done a a huge service. This thread has honed in on one of those huge issues: WHO WE ARE, versus HOW WE SEE OURSELVES.

 

I am not going to do those things because it is not that important to me. But when I see someone trying to pass off pure conjecture as gospel truth, I may say something.

I don't know what the average age of ham operators is, but my guess is that it is much higher than 50, based on the fact that the average age for all Americans is 38+, and that includes children under the age of ten, very few of which are licensed. Combine that with the fact of personal knowledge, and I think it is accurate.

Does anyone on here (other than Chip) actually think that the average age of hams is under 50?

 

Again, we are back to MR.SPOCK : "HOW DO YOU FEEL?"



Who cares?

You are not going to do those things because you are using your own single sample as a generalized extrapolation to the whole.

Of course, that's your opinion, which is fine.

The reality is that the data bases exist to make these analyses; I have done so in a limited sample with some selection biases, and that any decent MBA type can do this to greater accuracy if someone WANTS to.

The majority of licensed Part 97 folks are under 50.

The majority of 'new' licensees since 2010 give no trackable evidence for on the air activity.

Use it or lose it.

73
Chip W1YW

 

What evidence do you have that suggests that the majority of hams are under 50? I am wondering why you have this belief.

 

I mean, really... SEE #108!

Sterling's pie chart is for PEOPLE WHO RESPONDED TO THE SURVEY. It has a huge selection bias against those that are not radio-active, and do not follow QRZed or other ham internet outlets.

That is not a PUT DOWN of the survey, it's just pointing out that it is a self-selecting result: a selection bias. It IS a good indication of who is actually USING their Part 97 privileges, IMO.

 

Well, wherever these younguns under 50 hang out, it ain't on HF CW, in this single person's opinion.

 

They 'hang with the HT on the closet door --waiting for a reason to use it. IF they even have an HT...

 

Post 108 doesn't offer any evidence, it's a call for someone to go and do some research. My question to you is what propels your belief that hams are a majority under 50 years old? Did you do some research, and if so is it available? Do you think there are hoards of hams out there in there 20's and 30's?

I have never seen any research or indication that hams have a median age of under 50, and frankly, it defies common logic just based on known demographics of the American population as a whole, and ham radio ops in general.

I agree that the survey is "self selecting", but that doesn't mean that it is inherently wrong. It certainly could be a barometer of the demographics of hams, and I believe that it is. It doesn't have to be 100% accurate to do that, but you are suggesting that the survey is grossly out of touch with hams ages.

 

IMO, this is an extremely helpful post, to show where you are coming from.

Thanks for posting it!

In a phrase, IMO, your position is 'hams are OLD HOBBY horses'...

I can move on now, knowing your,IMO, biases prevent me from taking your opinion with cred on this matter.

Others may have different opinions and that's AOK with me.

 

Very little reliable data exists about actual age distributions of radio amateurs.

A year ago the average age of ARRL members was stated as 68 years, but the age distribution of the 80% of US amateurs that are non-members is largely unknown.

Few national societies want to talk about these issues, and
data usually has to be derived from census and other official sources.

Two examples may be shown here; the first is the the German distributions among their about 61000 amateurs, the second the Swedish distribution among the slightly more than 12000 amateurs.
















The above charts come from both official sources and census data, and are believed to be representative for Western Europe.

It should be noted that in both countries have about 25 years of various "youth programmes" been tried, without any measurable reductions in the average ages.

My own opinion is that amateur radio has passed its "sell by date" with a considerable margin, and the Authorities sooner or later will seize the opportunity to get rid of amateur radio by attrition when the average age reaches 75 or so.

73/
Karl-Arne
SM0AOM

 

Well,

That's useless.

Here's why.

The US GROWTH in licensing is anomalous compared to your German and Swedish samples.

That's because a large fraction of new and recent US hams are 'public safety' or 'just in case' hams, which do not seem to have counterpart percentages in other countries. This has been going on here, especially, in the last 10 years.

Those hams are usually brought in by agency or municipal affiliation and are far below retirement age. They are the ones that place the bell curve around 50 rather than 60+, IN THE US...

The fact that they are inactive is not to be interpreted that Part 97 licensees are geriatricksters..

IN THE US, the problem is NOT that the majority of hams are ELDERLY, but that an alarming percentage of licensees are not, or never have been , radio-active. THAT'S what can kill off the Part 97 service, not demographics.

Oh--and calling it a HOBBY....

Hey--if you are willing to have hams call you up in the middle of the night with threats, then go get your LINKEDIN, Zed, and ULS (past and present) samples and see yourself.

 

As I understand it "Whackerism" has become heavily represented in the US amateur numbers, which is something we have been spared from in my part of the world.

Since there are well functioning public safety communications implemented, Authorities usually see radio amateurs for what they are; over-age, over-weight and under-performing hobbyists...

No "sales pitches" in the world can change this.

73/
Karl-Arne
SM0AOM

 

Actually we are well past the 'whackerism' phase.

As I said, many groups, usually government affiliated (local, state, federal) actively encourage their employees to get ham licensees . These are (often) people who use their 'ICOMS' professionally, and extend now to ham HT's. These aren't whackers, but they do not get on the air, in general.

I've met many of these type of hams at APCO. They dont fit your asserted list of pejoratives.

They are definitely not hobbyists.