If we see a Northern Aurora down here it will be Tin hat time ! World's largest Solar Telescope atop Haleakala on Maui comes on line in November and should give some really improved and detailed data, G3SEA/KH6
Dr. Skovs forecasts are often very good and on the point. What happened the last time on the Sun was real chaotic. She tried her best. And what happened last weekend, concerning to the G3 of the Sun, was just a bad barrel burst by the Sun. Much people awaited something that never got real. That was not to preview.
My very modest 100W and a dipole in Minnesota were doing okay on 20 during the contest, with some Europeans. Then the flare hit. Nothing till later Sunday afternoon when DX began to return and I could work into the Caribbean f0r new prefixes. Amazingly I worked the HD8 post-contest well after dark. There's always hope for a good QSO even when the predictions aren't so great.
ANOTHER SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Sunspot AR2887 erupted again on Nov. 1st (0145 UT), producing an M1-class solar flare (just beneath X class) at 1:46 UT and a large plasma wave. The USAF is reporting Type II radio emissions which likely come from the shock front of a CME moving ~600 km/s through the sun's atmosphere. Waiting to confirm a possible Earth-directed component. Stay tuned for more spaceweather fun! M1 class flare at R1 level at 1:46 UT on November 1, 2021. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 01 2021 0145 UTC. NOAA predicts a 35% chance of radio blackout between Nov. 1 and Nov. 3.
We have quite accurate satellite data from many positions monitoring and outward from the sun. The X1 flare (smallest of the X category) did occur as measured by the data. What seems to be the difficulty is estimates of how fast the solar wind will carry the shockwave, and at what angle it will hit or miss earth (a very tiny target) as well as how it interacts with the magnetic field of the earth. Our best solar scientists post their estimates of K values and timing for each CMA event. They widely disagree on how bad it will be on the teeny tiny earth as the massive shock wave moves out. With the X1 last week some were predicting up to 1900km/s (never got over about 400 or so) and KP up to 7. They submit their research guesstimates at the CME Research Scorecard at https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/ Dr. Tamitha Skov, one of the foremost experts looks at the various predictions especially from NOA, NASA etc which often disagree and try and make a scientific judgment of what is likely to happen and explain it in detail for us non-solar science folks might understand. She often talks about how unpredictable it is but probably this or that. Science is still in its early stages to understand and predict. But we have accurate sensors on satellites that are providing accurate data at the moment. It is the predictions of future effects and how they will impact our tiny earth and the exact path of the shock wave that is not accurately predictable yet.
Tamitha just did an hour update on Patron. Scientists are baffled what slowed and weakened the X1 flare that took about 4 days to hit the earth and was very much weakened as "structures" somehow got in its way (the non-technical description). A few more recent flares but much lower. We know it was X1 when exploded from the sun, we have the halo/huge eruption showing pictures from satellites, etc but we do not fully understand why it turned out to be a minor event by the time it got to earth. The space experts have never seen this happen like this and will be studied extensively to try and learn from. We need to learn more since with X flares can have serious effects on earth such as heart pacemakers might reset, power grids go down as have in the past by induced currents, danger to space crafts (my slow orbits and have to adjust), the risk to frequent fliers and pilots (greatest risk at high latitudes.... etc. And anyone on the moon - the moon landing- was lucky there were no solar storms since not protected by radiation hardly at all vs. on earth. The current earth magnetic fields going a bit crazy and if flows go Southward for long could have HF disruptions but good Northern Lights going further south. If flux lines go North good for hams bad for Aurora. Currently going a bit crazy as magnetic fields compressing and expanding back and forth with the solar wind pushing protons but as it closes in same polarity fields, of course, repel.. etc.... Very complex but interesting science as more of our technology can get interrupted by what the Sun does and how it affects mankind.
Why the Sun produced a barrel burst isnt easy or not to explain. But here I think that the results of the project "Parker Solar Probe" are able to give a direction sign. Especially in understanding the magnectic fields with its random and incalculable turns on their way through the solar system.
The fascinating science of prediction is still evolving. The best indicator of band conditions is always the same. Turn on the radio!
