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Geomagnetic Storm ! X-Flare

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by W5TXR, Oct 29, 2021.

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  1. KW0U

    KW0U Ham Member QRZ Page

    My very modest 100W and a dipole in Minnesota were doing okay on 20 during the contest, with some Europeans. Then the flare hit. Nothing till later Sunday afternoon when DX began to return and I could work into the Caribbean f0r new prefixes. Amazingly I worked the HD8 post-contest well after dark. There's always hope for a good QSO even when the predictions aren't so great.
     
  2. N1FM

    N1FM Ham Member QRZ Page

    ANOTHER SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Sunspot AR2887 erupted again on Nov. 1st (0145 UT), producing an M1-class solar flare (just beneath X class) at 1:46 UT and a large plasma wave. The USAF is reporting Type II radio emissions which likely come from the shock front of a CME moving ~600 km/s through the sun's atmosphere. Waiting to confirm a possible Earth-directed component. Stay tuned for more spaceweather fun!

    [​IMG]

    M1 class flare at R1 level at 1:46 UT on November 1, 2021.

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux


    NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

    Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 01 2021 0145 UTC.

    NOAA predicts a 35% chance of radio blackout between Nov. 1 and Nov. 3.

    [​IMG]


     
    KN4ULD and KD2HAM like this.
  3. W0JKT

    W0JKT Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    We have quite accurate satellite data from many positions monitoring and outward from the sun. The X1 flare (smallest of the X category) did occur as measured by the data. What seems to be the difficulty is estimates of how fast the solar wind will carry the shockwave, and at what angle it will hit or miss earth (a very tiny target) as well as how it interacts with the magnetic field of the earth.

    Our best solar scientists post their estimates of K values and timing for each CMA event. They widely disagree on how bad it will be on the teeny tiny earth as the massive shock wave moves out. With the X1 last week some were predicting up to 1900km/s (never got over about 400 or so) and KP up to 7. They submit their research guesstimates at the CME Research Scorecard at https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, one of the foremost experts looks at the various predictions especially from NOA, NASA etc which often disagree and try and make a scientific judgment of what is likely to happen and explain it in detail for us non-solar science folks might understand. She often talks about how unpredictable it is but probably this or that.

    Science is still in its early stages to understand and predict. But we have accurate sensors on satellites that are providing accurate data at the moment. It is the predictions of future effects and how they will impact our tiny earth and the exact path of the shock wave that is not accurately predictable yet.
     
  4. W0JKT

    W0JKT Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Tamitha just did an hour update on Patron. Scientists are baffled what slowed and weakened the X1 flare that took about 4 days to hit the earth and was very much weakened as "structures" somehow got in its way (the non-technical description).

    A few more recent flares but much lower. We know it was X1 when exploded from the sun, we have the halo/huge eruption showing pictures from satellites, etc but we do not fully understand why it turned out to be a minor event by the time it got to earth. The space experts have never seen this happen like this and will be studied extensively to try and learn from.

    We need to learn more since with X flares can have serious effects on earth such as heart pacemakers might reset, power grids go down as have in the past by induced currents, danger to space crafts (my slow orbits and have to adjust), the risk to frequent fliers and pilots (greatest risk at high latitudes.... etc. And anyone on the moon - the moon landing- was lucky there were no solar storms since not protected by radiation hardly at all vs. on earth.

    The current earth magnetic fields going a bit crazy and if flows go Southward for long could have HF disruptions but good Northern Lights going further south. If flux lines go North good for hams bad for Aurora. Currently going a bit crazy as magnetic fields compressing and expanding back and forth with the solar wind pushing protons but as it closes in same polarity fields, of course, repel.. etc.... Very complex but interesting science as more of our technology can get interrupted by what the Sun does and how it affects mankind.
     
    N3RYB likes this.
  5. KC7JNJ

    KC7JNJ Ham Member QRZ Page

    Space X got in the way and slowed it down:p
     
    N3RYB likes this.
  6. DO1FER

    DO1FER Ham Member QRZ Page

    Why the Sun produced a barrel burst isnt easy or not to explain. But here I think that the results of the project "Parker Solar Probe" are able to give a direction sign. Especially in understanding the magnectic fields with its random and incalculable turns on their way through the solar system.
     
    W0JKT likes this.
  7. W9VTT

    W9VTT Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    hook, line ,and sinker
     
    W1REN likes this.
  8. AA8GK

    AA8GK Ham Member QRZ Page

    WELCOME TO THE MADNESS THAT IS HAM RADIO!!!!!!!
     
    DO1FER likes this.
  9. N1FM

    N1FM Ham Member QRZ Page

    The fascinating science of prediction is still evolving. The best indicator of band conditions is always the same. Turn on the radio!
     
    WL7PM likes this.
  10. WL7PM

    WL7PM Ham Member QRZ Page

    I will add: " Call CQ "
    There's a LOT more Propagation than there are signals to propagate.
     
    1 person likes this.

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