Parks on the Air (POTA) Announces New Annual Plaque Event

Seems like some folks have their heels dug in.

"Can't we all get along?"

 

Thank you for being a VE, but I don't think that has anything to do with the number of US amateurs.

The AE7Q numbers include licenses in the grace period, and club licenses. That's why the numbers are significantly higher than the ARRL numbers.

Trouble is, when grace-period licenses are included, the effects of changes in growth are delayed by as much as 2 years. The ARRL numbers show a peak back in late November, 2021, and then a decline - but that decline hasn't shown up in the AE7Q totals yet.

Why?

The US population has been steadily growing since records have been kept - just check the census numbers.

The number of US amateurs has grown most of the time since licenses were first required (1912), but there have been times of decline as well.

590,000 US amateurs in 2005? What's your source for that number?

690,000 would be more accurate - and that doesn't include grace-period licenses.

Check out

http://ah0a.org/FCC/Licenses.html

if you don't accept the ARRL numbers.

Yes, Amateur Radio is alive and kicking - nobody says it isn't.

But if you look at the number of current, unexpired FCC-issued amateur licenses held by individuals, our numbers have been declining since late November 2021.

As a VE, you see people getting their licenses and upgrading - but you don't see those who drop out.

Here's some more historical data:

The following numbers have been posted by W5ESE on QRZ.com and elsewhere:

Year Population #Hams Hams as % of US Population
1913 97,225,000 2,000 0.002%
1914 99,111,000 5,000 0.005%
1916 101,961,000 6,000 0.006%
1921 108,538,000 10,809 0.010%
1922 110,049,000 14,179 0.013%
1930 123,202,624 19,000 0.015%
1940 132,164,569 56,000 0.042%
1950 151,325,798 87,000 0.057%
1960 179,323,175 230,000 0.128%
1970 203,211,926 263,918 0.130%
1980 226,545,805 393,353 0.174%
1990 248,709,873 502,677 0.202%
1997 267,783,607 678,733 0.253%
2000 281,421,906 682,240 0.242%
2005 296,410,404 662,600 0.224%
2006 299,291,772 657,814 0.220%
2008 303,000,000 658,648 0.217%
2010 310,425,814 694,313 0.224%
2021 332,556,444 780,526 0.235%
2023 334,451,910 766,395 0.229%

The 2010, 2021 and 2023 figures are from the US population clock

https://www.census.gov/popclock/

and ARRL's FCC license counts from the eham thread.

Some significant-to-US-ham-radio historical events:

1912: Mandatory licensing of all US radio amateurs
1917: US amateur radio shut down because of WW1
1919: US amateur radio reopened after WW1
1920s: Radio broadcasting boom; amateurs pioneer use of short-waves
1929: New regulations require higher quality transmitters and drastically narrow US ham bands. Stock market crashes
1930s: Great Depression
1941: US amateur radio shut down because of WW2
1945: US amateur radio reopened after WW2
1951: Restructuring doubles number of US license classes, Novice, Technician and Extra created
1957: Sputnik launched
1958: 27 MHz cb authorized
1960s: SSB replaces AM as most-popular voice mode on HF amateur bands
1968-69: Incentive licensing rules enacted
1970s: Novice becomes renewable, experience requirement for Extra eliminated. Repeater boom era.
1984: VEC system replaces FCC office testing. CSCEs created.
1990: Medical waivers for 13 and 20 wpm code tests
1991: Technician loses its code test completely
2000: Restructuring closes off 3 license classes and reduces test requirements for other 3.
2007: Code testing completely eliminated for US amateur licenses.
2022: License fees reinstated (April 19)

There are many more events; add your own.

Note how the growth has varied with time, both in percentages and totals. Oddly enough, the period of most-rapid-growth in terms of percentage was the 1930s, when the number of US hams almost tripled, despite the Great Depression.

The 1950s were high-growth time, in part because of the Novice license (started in 1951). This growth is even more remarkable when you consider that the population growth of the 1950s was mostly in the form of the baby boom.

The 1960s saw very slow growth, but were followed by the faster growth of the 1970s, 1980s and most of the 1990s. The 1970s are particularly interesting because they were a time when the economy was terrible and the full effects of incentive licensing (imposed 1968-1969) were most felt. Yet we had tremendous growth then, and onwards to the mid-1990s.

Since 1997 we've seen ups and downs, and we're still behind where we were in 1997 in terms of hams as a percentage of the population. But the numbers are catching up.

Of course the numbers of licensees only tell part of the story. They don't tell how many licensees are active amateurs, in the form of having a station and getting on the air. They don't tell how many hams use a particular band or mode, or how much they operate, work on projects, etc.

FCC doesn't have age data on all licensees so it's impossible to accurately determine the mean or median age of US amateurs. (When you see "average age" figures tossed around, ask how they were derived.)

The license term went to 10 years in 1984, which means there were no expirations at all from 1989 to 1994, and that a ham can drop out yet be carried on the license totals for almost a decade.

There are lots of other factors - housing, economics, sources of population growth (immigration vs. babies), increasing lifespans, cell phones, the internet, and much more.


73 de Jim, N2EY

 

Of course it's a good thing - for most of us.

But some would disagree - here's why:

Some folks WANT the amateur bands to be very lightly used. They want lots of unused spectrum for rag chews and such, completely unencumbered by contests, pileups, operating events, award hunters, etc.

Some folks consider certain frequencies to be "theirs" because they have a "sked" or a "net" on that frequency, and everyone should stay clear.

And so, when ANY new operating event comes along - a contest, an award, a DXpedition, a something-On-The-Air activity, you name it, they're up in arms. How DARE anyone use THEIR frequency!

This attitude isn't new. A classic case is that of W2OY.

Check out this story from K9STH (SK): https://forums.qrz.com/index.php?th...ice-due-to-tariffs.620134/page-6#post-4728546

73 de Jim, N2EY

 

You're forgetting one important fact about the plaque event: It doesn't depend on a gentleman's agreement.

If someone tries to earn a plaque using QSOs made on the WARC bands, those QSOs won't count because the rules don't allow them.

 

@N2EY sorry I think I made an error on the 590 vs 690. Either way, grace periods included, Population in America has/is going up, as is US Licenses has/is going up. Upward trajectory, Japan's "Big Three" are making radios, and a new digital mode comes out every other week.

But hey... if you think the hobby is dying, please sell me your Motorola radios!

 

But if you don't include licenses in the grace period, the number of US amateurs has been going DOWN since late 2021.

That's all good! But the fact is that the number of currently-licensed US amateurs stopped growing more than a year ago. Including grace-period licenses in the total simply delays seeing the trends.

I don't think Amateur Radio is "dying", but I don't think the decline over the past 15 months is a good thing either.

I'd sell you all my Motorola radios if I had any.

73 de Jim, N2EY

 

NO MOTOROLA?! No Spectras, CDM, GTX, ASTROs, XTL/XTM/MT/HTxxxx? Not an XPR? Not a single APX?!?! YOU HEATHEN!

So, I did account for dead hammies and the foolish grace periods. We agree to disagree as I see an upward trend. I like you, even though you are a non-Motorola Heathen; I will not "ignore you" like I do certain know-it-alls!

Sorry I have to get back to pounding brass on 18.141 Mc with 700 watts RF. Got to make sure I can make it across the state! WARC Bands? "Let them eat cake!"

 

It's the Gentlemen and Gentleladies at the top that I worry about not those at the bottom and after the fact.

 

I am not a contest person, I must except the fact there are enough of the minority not the majority that have the driven need to be recognized for whatever they do and they are pushing for contests. OK go ahead and fill the bands with garbage and at some point the FCC will step in and make some strict rule changes nobody will like. To bad the organizers of POTA are going down this rabbit hole.

Well said, I believe the Silent majority agree with you, so do I.

 

This isn't something new. This has been going on for 7 years now. A few things were changed for the plaque event this year and that is the reason for the announcement. Do you have complaints about every contest or just this one in specifically?

 

Or you could do like me and care less….

Busting a pileup into a guy sitting in a park two States away doesn’t challenge me.

Anyway, I would recommend 7.200 for you to blast that 500 w of CW….send Anchors Away.

Have fun.

 

Those yahoos are on right now!

 

I see that you upload your log to QRZ and I also see an entry on 17M. QRZ keeps a record of QSO's, ranks and has leaderboard, and gives out awards for completing specific QSO goals in the same way POTA or SOTA does. Does that mean you were contesting on 17M? Logbook of the World is also similar, so are people logging there also contesting if they upload their logs? I don't think one can claim POTA or SOTA is a contest and not use the same metrics for QRZ logging or similar.

I participate in POTA and SOTA, but I have no idea how many activations I have, how many QSO's I have, or if I have a bunch of awards or not. I have fun operating portable and enjoy the traffic these programs bring to portable operators. I upload my log to confirm QSO's and go about my day.

 

Upload your log to QRZ… then you’ll know.

 

Fair warning (or trigger warning?)….

ARRL DX contest (phone version) is starting. I think it goes all weekend so reserve your spot on the WARC bands now lol.

I'll still chase any portable operators in between the chaos on all bands this weekend.