Amateur Radio Newsline headlines for Ham Nation. March 18, 2020.

You are not offending anyone. We stand in solidarity with Italians, against the virus!

 

Here's the CDC website (below). The 'huge' jump in numbers is caused purely by the selection effect of changing the rules on who is 'allowed' to get tested--and availability of swabs and analysis centers. If we used the same bogus 'criteria' from two weeks, ago, the number would be a few hundred, not seven thousand. And the death rate would have been , well, silly-large in addition to being wrong.

If you used today's criteria two weeks back, the number would have probably been roughly 2000. The actual number is probably approaching 100,000 or + ,today, mid March.

Deaths represent likely infections from 2-4 weeks back, roughly end of February.

A good guess is, for a 1% death rate, 10,000 or so infections in the late Feb time frame.

Looking at roughly 1000 deaths by early April based on a 100,000 infected today.

Watch the dumb media panic over the death rate like it was some astronomical change. It's not. It likely has been like this for weeks, only we underestimated the infections.

Needless to say--DON'T BE PART OF THESE STATISTICS! You know what to do...

Anyway, here it is:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

Stay safe

 

Ok Nathan, I understand what is your point of view.
Surely the outbreaks in China have been underestimated by everyone (initially also by the Chinese themselves). Of course if people and governments had been more determined we would not have had many deaths.
This is demonstrated by the fact that the epidemic in Italy originated in places other than Italy and, surely, the silence of the media has generated the current catastrophe. The silence, probably, created by the fear of a financial disaster as happened a few years ago with SARS.
Disaster that, in my opinion, will become reality in the coming months. We hope for a rapid decrease in numbers.
I agree with your invitation to stay safe but it's not easy. All western countries cannot afford to stop. So we find ourselves working by the day (often from home through smart working). It makes me angry to think that still many people and many governments are underestimating the problem.

 

Yes!

Agree!

73
Chip W1YW

 

Amateur operators engineers an electronic builders, might be able to help
Analog ventilator construction Coronavirus | QRZ Forums

https://forums.qrz.com/index.php?threads/analog-ventilator-construction-coronavirus.697201/

 

Years ago I watched it when it was a comedy. Now it's becoming a documentary.

 

Notice that , miraculously, the number jumped from 7000 to almost 9000 in one day.

It's not that the actual NUMBER of infected changed by a nonlinear jump; its that the reporting and 'testing criteria' changed.

Again, as this number levels to the tens of thousands, its not that the number given represents the true number of infected, but only how we sample and report it.

Likely about 10% or less will require medical attention and likely 3-4 percent will require hospitalization. But THAT is a huge number, and the point is to keep the number of seriously affected spread out over time.

We are now accomplishing that with the radical social protocols in place. Which, of course, stink and create their own problems, such as the disintegration of civilization ;-)

There are two things to worry about: corona virus, and corona fear. Right now, the virus is unfortunate, but the fear--played up and doled out and reflected by the press--is outrageous.

 

OK, watch the dribbles of facts slowly emerge, such as:


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/business/coronavirus-ventilators-manufacture-intl/index.html

Unfortunately, we will see a federally mandated/locally enforced SHELTER IN PLACE for everyone over 65 (possibly 60) by MONDAY, so try to be ready for it. IOW, it will go from REQUEST to REQUIREMENT. The objective is to keep us out of the hospital because the hospitals are about to be overflooded with older, seriously ill patients.

 

Below is a tragic and outrageous example of what to expect from corona. I post it because it emphasized the need for 'social distancing', and the time scale from exposure to death is of order 2+ weeks. Thus the 'death' statistics represent exposure/infections from roughly 2 to 3 weeks:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/health/new-jersey-coronavirus-family-members-killed/index.html

Lesson learned: what we do NOW affects the epidemic 2-3 WEEKS from now. That's the delay that's built into the epidemic...as reflected in the 'selection bias' statistics promulgated by the CDC, CNN, etc.

It's stories like this that will lead to the imminent 'shelter in place' REQUIREMENT of us old folks...

 

It's amazing to me that the press will lead with a FEAR story, but miss the PUNCHLINE on the facts...

The assumption in the story is that EVERYONE is medically vulnerable to the corona virus. Of course, to a degree, that is true. But here is the reality:

THE REASON THERE ARE MILLENIALS in the hospital is because there are a HUGE number of infected in that age group --and a tiny fraction end up seriously ill. It does NOT imply that the younger 'get sick' at the same rate as older...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/health/new-jersey-coronavirus-family-members-killed/index.html

So YOUR take away is social distance from MILLENIALS and those under, say, 40, as much as you can, because they are disproportionatedly infected already.

That is MY opinion. Yours may differ.

 

Here is prima facie evidence of deliberate UNDER REPORTING of corona infections by the appropriate DPH and CDC.... From a CNN story..

"After waking up in the middle of the night, Driscoll was struggling to catch her breath and raced to the hospital where she got confirmation that she had Covid-19.

It was a battle inside her body, she says, and nurses could only help her by giving her fluids and medicine for the pain and fever.

"I had to battle out the fever and battle out how I felt," she said.

After spending a few days in the hospital, Driscoll is in quarantine. Her son, who's with her at their home, has some mild symptoms but hasn't been able to get tested."

 

here you can see the situation in Italy by day (the bulletin is updated at about 6:00 pm) ... just to make comparisons on the daily increases:

http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nu...=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4267

 

Yea I get that, however the common flu kills more people around the world each year and has for decades

I hate politics,not trying to delve there... but one interesting thing I noticed we seen hong kong protesters, wuhan virus comes out, protesters gone, now virus comes here

I read yesterday a scientist over in Europe claims he has broken down the virus cell and claims it was man made

so someone has the necessary skills on this bug to save us all

 

Grazie!

 

Kindly pass along a link.

73
Chip W1YW