G1 Minor Storm Alert posted by SWPC 7-30-15 2022 UTC. <see previous post> SWPC Article: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g1-minor-geomagnetic-storms-likely-31-july-and-01-august Space Weather Message Code: WARK05 Serial Number: 1034 Issue Time: 2015 Jul 30 2022 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2015 Jul 30 2020 UTC Valid To: 2015 Jul 31 0600 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day one (30 Jul). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected initially on two (31 Jul) until late in the period when conditions are expected to increase to G1 (minor) storm levels due to CIR and CH HSS effects. G1 levels are expected again on day three (01 Aug) as CH HSS influences continue.
The right edge of the image above is the north/south center line of the sun. Region 2394 is located to the left and is now pointing at Earth. Any eruption from this region would be Earth directed. On the left side of this image a a very long and high filament. This region will rotate to the center line in the next 4 days (8-8-15). Should this filament erupt between 8-6 to 8-10 it could send a great deal of material towards Earth. Image: SDO AIA 171 8-4-15 10:41:47 UTC
This plot from the IPS shows the relative global HF T-Index. This plot updates when viewed. More information: http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/6/1
These SDO images are of region 2396 as it rotates past the Earth-Sun line this date. The region has a C = 85%, M = 35%, X = 5%, P = 1% chance of creating a SWE.
Images: Left SDO AIA 193 8-11-15 19:25:06 UTC Right WSA-ENLIL 8-11-15 The left image is coronal hole CH 88 as it approaches the Sun-Earth center line. This region will produce a solar wind stream that will reach Earth around mid-day 8-15-15 and peak mid-day 8-16-15. The CH is located just south of the solar equator (top of image is very close to the equatorial line). Due to this southerly location, the bulk of the stream will pass below the Earth. The WSA-ENLIL pinwheel shows the two STEREO spacecraft on the left, the sun in the middle, and the Earth on the right as if viewed from directly above or below. The right hand plot shows the sun on the left and the Earth (center) from directly behind orbital travel as if on a flat surface (ecliptic). The north pole is at the top and the south pole is at the bottom of the small dot which represents Earth. The two plots show the passing of the stream on 8-16-15. The strongest portions on the stream will pass below the south pole.
The images above are an example of what is called a Hyder Flare that erupted this date at about 1300 UTC. Coronal Hole 88 is in the upper left corner of both images. The left edge of both images is the north/south center line of the sun with the top edges being very close to the solar equatorial line. The top image shows the area of the eruption (large oval). Some of the material ejected from the eruption can bee seen in the smaller oval as it exits the surface. The eruption is not associated with region 2396 which will exit the visible surface in the coming hours. The area in the larger oval in the upper image also shows the bright "seismic waves" created by the eruption which appears as brighter than the surrounding area in this wavelength of light. The lower image shows the magnetic turbulence in the region. Due to the location of this SWE it appears most of this eruption will not be Earth directed, but could still generate additional Earth geomagnetic disturbances in the coming hours. As soon as calculations are completed visit the SWPC WSA-ENLIL for further updates: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction
SDO AIA 193 8-13-15 15:41:30 UTC SDO AIA IMSAL 211, 193, 171 8-13-15 15:22 UTC WSA-ENLIL 8-13-15 1300 UTC The two SDO images above show Cor0nal Hole 88 (CH 88). It is currently located west of the Earth-Sun center line (See previous posts). The forecast effects from this region on Earth are shown in the WSA-ENLIL plot. Earth will past through this stream starting at 8-15-15 0000 UTC. The mid-point will be about 8-17-15 at 1200 UTC and end about 8-20-15 at 0000 UTC. The stream should peak in intensity by 8-16-15 at 0000 UTC. These dates and times do not reflect effects (if any) from yesterdays CME noted in the previous post. In the WSA-ENLIL plot it appears the majority of the strongest portion of the coronal stream will pass below Earth. The solar wind speed will be very low (350 to 400 km/s) which on Earth would be a long duration low level rain storm. Adding all of this up equals about 120 hours of poor HF communications with the added possibility of energetic plasma particles from a CME all mixed together.
The latest WSA-ENLIL calculations indicate the CME that occurred on 8-12-15 (see previous posts) will arrive at Earth on 8-16-15 at about 0600 UTC and mix with the solar stream.
The SDO experienced several hours of missing images from about 8-14-15 0800 to 1100 UTC. During that period the area in oval A above erupted. CH 88 is directly above this region. In addition, the region in oval B started to erupt at the time this image was taken. That makes a total of 3. Review the first post in this thread.
SDO HMI HARP 8-15-15 1200 UTC GOES 15 SXI 12:52:15 UTC PTHK 0.4 The center of both of the above is the north/south and east/west coordinates with regions 2398. 2399, 2400, and 2401 visible. SDO/HARP regions 4358 (NOAA Region 2401 lower left SE corner) and HARP 4333 (upper right NE corner) produced simultaneous solar flares at about 1230 UTC. This does not appear to be related to the previous SWE's.
I agree. Conditions were indeed good for VHF DX recently. I was able to work the astronauts at our Moon Base BR-549 when they had a break to operate their ham gear they took along.
It appears old region 2399 is making a return appearance. It is about the size of Earth and has an active X-Ray profile. It is located about 16 degrees south on the eastern limb. SWPC Forecast... G1 (Minor) storm conditions are forecast to persist into day one (18 Aug) under continued CH HSS influence and a combination of CMEs from two separate filament eruptions of 14 Aug. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist on day two (19 Aug) due to possible lingering effects from the CMEs and weakening CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (20 Aug) as CME and CH HSS effects wane. Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares (Below R1-Minor) for the next three days (18-20 Aug) primarily due to Region 2401 and the area of enhanced X-ray flux along the SE limb.
SDO AIA IMSAL 171-211-304 8-21-15 1037-1038 UTC GOES 15 8-21-15 02:08:15 UTC There have been no Class M or X solar flares since old region 2381 fired off a couple of rounds on July 6, 2015 (see previous posts). New region 2403 fired off two low level M class events over the past 13 hours. The lower image from the GOES 15 SXI Imager shows the first event that occurred shortly before the image was taken last evening. GOES 13 is currently the default satellite and is available through the SWPC at this hour. The upper image is a composite of three images taken by the SDO between 1037 and 1038 today 8-21-15 of the latest event that started at about 0941 and lasted well past 1000 UTC. You can see the seismic shock waves near the top as they fan out from the center. I like to call this a "Radio Tsunami". The latest event produced at least three bands of sweep radio emissions: 0941 to 0943 at 2695 MHz 0946 to 0946 at 245 MHz 0959 to 1001 from 25 to 136 MHz It appears the latest event may have produced a CME, the bulk of which should pass behind and slightly the Earth orbital pathway. This will be studied during the coming hours and updated as LASCO coronal images become available.
STEREO Ahead EUVI 304 8-23-15 11:00:26 UTC --------------- SDO AIA 304 8-23-15 12:24:19 UTC The two images above show the sun on the far side (STEREO) and the Earth side (SDO) at the times indicated. The white horizontal line is the solar equator. The white vertical lines in the center of each image is the north/south center line. In the SDO image this line points directly at Earth. The short vertical line is a reference point for absolute solar longitude (0 to 360 degrees). At 0600 8-23-15 this point was 108.68 degrees. This point is located at the extreme left edge of the SDO image and extreme right edge of the STEREO image. It takes about 25 days for the sun to make 1 rotation at the equator and about 35 days for one rotation at either the north or south poles. Using the above information and some basic math, we can see what the coming days may have in store. For example in the SDO image the bright spot south of the equator is region 2403 which is pointing at Earth and effecting our communications currently. To the right (west) of 2403 is Coronal Hole (CH) 91 and to the left (east) is CH 93. These two regions will effect the solar wind in the coming days. If you divide 25 days by 2 this equals 12.5 days which is the time it takes a region to travel 1/2 the solar surface at the equator. If you divide 12.5 by 2 this equals 6.25 days or 150 hours. This would be the time it takes 2403 to rotate from the current location to the extreme right (west) edge at from time the image was taken. In looking at both images there are also a large filament in the upper left (SDO) and upper right (STEREO) images. This filament extends from the Earth side to the far side. The bottom line is to look forward to much of the same activity over the course of the next two weeks as the sun moves towards an early solar minimum. Decreased sunspot counts, more filaments, and weaker SWE's are all clue's.
SDO HMI 8-24-15 1230 UTC This mornings M5 class flare can be seen in the upper image as it starts to erupt. Using the Earth as a ruler, we can get an idea of the size of the event in relation to the entire 2403 region. The Earth is 12,756.32 kilometers (7,926.41 miles) in diameter. The area of the eruption is very close to the north/south center line. In the lower image you can see the magnetic "tug-of-war".
