Bright Regions Enter & Big Filament Launch in the Earth-Strike Zone | Space Weather News 08.23.2021

Good to see you again on QRZ.com Dr. TS. Love your excitement and good news. Thanks

 

will there be another Carrington Event 1859 ? that one happened at the height of solar cycle 10.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
Less severe storms occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported. The March 1989 geomagnetic storm knocked out power across large sections of Quebec. On 23 July 2012 a "Carrington-class" solar superstorm (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, solar EMP) was observed; its trajectory narrowly missed Earth.
The event of 774 is the strongest spike over the last 11,000 years in the record of cosmogenic isotopes. carbon-14.
The event of 774 did not cause catastrophic consequences for life on Earth, but had it happened in modern times, it might have produced catastrophic damage to modern technology, particularly to communication and space-borne navigation systems. In addition, a solar flare capable of producing the observed isotopic effect would pose considerable risk to astronauts.
The common paradigm is that the event was caused by a solar particle event (SPE), or a consequence of events as often happen, from a very strong solar flare, perhaps the strongest ever known but still within the Sun's abilities. According to a summary of the state of knowledge on radiocarbon dating in 2020, the spike is thought to have been caused by an extreme solar proton event. Another discussed scenario of the event origin, involving a gamma-ray burst, appears unlikely, because the event was also observed in isotopes 10 Be and 36 Cl.

 

Great summary! I wish you had posted this in the EMP thread.

 

roger wilco, copy&pasted

 

Next up, Will Krakatoa erupt Friday? Will Vesuvius cover Pompeii next week? Will the ice shield cover Minnesota before Sept 1?

Bringing up the Carrington event is just sensationalism. There is nothing that would suggest any such thing should happen.

Stop feeding the gullible.

 

brilliant as always thank you tamitha...

 

Why do you say this? Giant whooshing sound as the point of the original post goes flying over your head:. Things like that do happen. And likely will again.

 

Dr Skov is awesome with truly universal appeal.

 

Paper published by Nature (leading primary science journal):

Published: 20 February 2019
Probability estimation of a Carrington-like geomagnetic storm
David Moriña, Isabel Serra, Pedro Puig & Álvaro Corral

QUOTE:
the probability of occurrence on the next decade [2019-2029] of an extreme event of a magnitude comparable or larger than the well-known Carrington event of 1859 is explored, and estimated to be between 0.46% and 1.88% (with a 95% confidence), a much lower value than those reported in the existing literature.
UNQUOTE
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38918-8

The probability of a Carrington event in the next ten years is quite low. The probability of it happening next week and being predictable is even lower.

INVERSE Probability: 98.12% to 99.54% probability that no Carrington event will happen in the next ten years.

The whooshing sound is in other heads. Go hide under your bed! Stop the fear mongering.

 

Ok great, that contributes to the discussion.

 

Yeah but you're dealing with such a fearful society they will close the entire world with those kind of odds of survival.

 

If a massive flare erupts, it is possible for the astronauts to quickly evacuate the ISS, shut it down and return to earth via spacecraft to avoid the massive radiation that would experience by remaining in orbit?

 

Quick Google search tells us nothing can possibly go wrong. https://www.space.com/8883-space-station-crew-safe-sun-wrath-flare-strikes.html

 

Maybe they will find Jimmy Hoffa body, just saying.