Bright Regions Enter & Big Filament Launch in the Earth-Strike Zone | Space Weather News 08.23.2021

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by KF7WIS, Aug 25, 2021.

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  1. KF7WIS

    KF7WIS QRZ CEO Administrator Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    <iframe width="560" height="315" src="" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
    W9OOO, KG4BFR, AJ6KZ and 10 others like this.
  2. WX4US

    WX4US XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Good to see you again on QRZ.com Dr. TS. Love your excitement and good news. Thanks
     
    KG4BFR, AJ6KZ, M1WML and 2 others like this.
  3. KF0G

    KF0G Ham Member QRZ Page

    will there be another Carrington Event 1859 ? that one happened at the height of solar cycle 10.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
    Less severe storms occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported. The March 1989 geomagnetic storm knocked out power across large sections of Quebec. On 23 July 2012 a "Carrington-class" solar superstorm (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, solar EMP) was observed; its trajectory narrowly missed Earth.
    The event of 774 is the strongest spike over the last 11,000 years in the record of cosmogenic isotopes. carbon-14.
    The event of 774 did not cause catastrophic consequences for life on Earth, but had it happened in modern times, it might have produced catastrophic damage to modern technology, particularly to communication and space-borne navigation systems. In addition, a solar flare capable of producing the observed isotopic effect would pose considerable risk to astronauts.
    The common paradigm is that the event was caused by a solar particle event (SPE), or a consequence of events as often happen, from a very strong solar flare, perhaps the strongest ever known but still within the Sun's abilities. According to a summary of the state of knowledge on radiocarbon dating in 2020, the spike is thought to have been caused by an extreme solar proton event. Another discussed scenario of the event origin, involving a gamma-ray burst, appears unlikely, because the event was also observed in isotopes 10 Be and 36 Cl.
     
    KI7KCW, KG4BFR, M1WML and 1 other person like this.
  4. K6CLS

    K6CLS Ham Member QRZ Page

    Great summary! I wish you had posted this in the EMP thread.
     
    M1WML likes this.
  5. KF0G

    KF0G Ham Member QRZ Page

    roger wilco, copy&pasted
     
    M1WML likes this.
  6. KA0HCP

    KA0HCP XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Next up, Will Krakatoa erupt Friday? Will Vesuvius cover Pompeii next week? Will the ice shield cover Minnesota before Sept 1?

    Bringing up the Carrington event is just sensationalism. There is nothing that would suggest any such thing should happen.

    Stop feeding the gullible. ;)
     
    N0TTI, PA5COR and M1WML like this.
  7. M1WML

    M1WML Ham Member QRZ Page

    brilliant as always thank you tamitha... ;););)
     
    K5VZD likes this.
  8. K6CLS

    K6CLS Ham Member QRZ Page

    Why do you say this? Giant whooshing sound as the point of the original post goes flying over your head:. Things like that do happen. And likely will again.
     
    M1WML likes this.
  9. 2E0TWD

    2E0TWD Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    Dr Skov is awesome with truly universal appeal.
     
    M1WML likes this.
  10. KA0HCP

    KA0HCP XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Paper published by Nature (leading primary science journal):

    Published: 20 February 2019
    Probability estimation of a Carrington-like geomagnetic storm
    David Moriña, Isabel Serra, Pedro Puig & Álvaro Corral

    QUOTE:
    the probability of occurrence on the next decade [2019-2029] of an extreme event of a magnitude comparable or larger than the well-known Carrington event of 1859 is explored, and estimated to be between 0.46% and 1.88% (with a 95% confidence), a much lower value than those reported in the existing literature.
    UNQUOTE
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38918-8

    The probability of a Carrington event in the next ten years is quite low. The probability of it happening next week and being predictable is even lower.

    INVERSE Probability: 98.12% to 99.54% probability that no Carrington event will happen in the next ten years.

    The whooshing sound is in other heads. Go hide under your bed! Stop the fear mongering.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2021
    CHISE, WA8MEA, HB9EPC and 3 others like this.

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