A Bright Region Fizzles & A Dark Hole Looms: Solar Storm Forecast 04-05-2018

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by KB7TBT, Apr 5, 2018.

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  1. W1VT

    W1VT Ham Member QRZ Page

    I'm in the 3B7A and 4B4B online logs--that will make 320 countries--now within a dozen countries to make Honor Roll!

    I find it hard to justify investing in an costly beam and tower when I can work new countries with simple dipoles at 35 feet strung between trees!

    Zak W1VT
    G3SEA, W1YW and W0PV like this.
  2. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    I didnt take it 'personal"(ly) (sic).

    And no, its not just a matter of opinion. Kindly understand when you imply things are magic and great with propagation, it makes many newbies feel inadequate when they don't experience the same thrill or luck. Level with them.

    Propagation is not about positive attitude. It is about dissociation of NOx molecules and evanescing electron densities. That is highly deleterious--hence miserable/horrible-- for the foreseeable future. Try 2023.

    Contests are a shining exception. Without contests you might as well put the rig in storage for 95% of the time.
    G3SEA likes this.
  3. W4MHZ

    W4MHZ Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Goodness, thanks for correcting my grammar there. Lots of big words in that post for a simple noob to try to wrap his head around. It is probably better to just tell the noobs that the lower bands will be working better now that we are nearing a solar minimum.

    That said, if you sincerely feel like leaving the bands till 2023, I won't complain or try to stop you.

    Contests are a sometimes shining example of what people on the Internet call "epeen". It really depends upon the contestor, I suppose. I don't contest and I don't bother those who do. More power to anyone who wants to do it though.

    I can't for the life of me understand why it is such a big deal for you. It's probably got something to do with score keeping though. I've had to fill out and send about a hundred and forty QSL cards since last fall. There has not been a single day in that time I could not have had a QSO if I had wanted it. So as far as this illiterate bumpkin is concerned propagation is just fine...

    So, it might not be a matter of opinion for you but it surely is a matter of opinion for me. You have a really fine day working through this looking for more grammar errors. ;)
    • ;)
  4. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    No, not a matter of opinion.

    Contesters are FB.

    Stop trying to mislead newbies.

    An SFI less than 75 indicates POOR propagation conditions.

    In winter months, there are rare quiet times on 75M and 160M where propagation is fair for some long haul DX. Now, it really is stinko and will continue that way into the Fall. If you have high power and 10 dBi or better antennas at goodly heights, the Es season on 6M often proves fruitful--- but fleeting. I just got my GI4 card for a QSO from 2015. Country 51.

    But conditions right now are horrible and are a FAIR representation of what to expect in general.

    Not 5 sigma exceptions and miracles.

    So, to take your cue, I will happily wait until 2023, or possibly forever, for any QSO with W4MHz.
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2018
  5. W4MHZ

    W4MHZ Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    "Contesters are FB." -- That's more or less what I said. I said I don't do it but more power to them.

    Goodness one would think someone put you in charge of the entire conversation. Now then, why would you ascribe to me some nefarious intent? I'm neither trying to mislead anyone nor trying to throw the fear of a world wide propagation disaster into them. Practically speaking what the noobs need to be told is that they will need to look for their DX on lower frequencies than they do when they have ripping good conditions. That's really it. Everything is going to go down an octave or so for a few years. It's not the end of the world. It's not a reason to panic. It isn't even all that bad. It is different. That's all. Just different.

    Tonight, right now if I want to run my little 3 watt 40m rig up I can talk to the fellow calling CQ as I write this. I'm in Virginia and he is in New York. For me that would be NVIS on a dipole at 3 watts into New York. Forty meters is open right now. So there are QSOs to be had... You are doom and glooming it.

    In a different life I learned that beating my breast about problems I could not change was generally counter productive. I am not going to tell noob operators how bad things are, not because I want to mislead them, rather I want to encourage them. So I'm going to tell them that it can be done and if they ask me how it can be done I'm going to give the exactly the advice you would give someone who wanted to make a link when solar conditions were favoring lower frequencies.

    The problem you have with me is simple. You want to make me describe the problem in your terms and I'm not co-operating. You have a nice day now. It is probably best for us to take a break and let others run this show for a little while.

    The problem with "scientific" indicators is mostly how they are interpreted by scientists who are just barely competent enough to learn them but not quite competent enough to actually understand the larger picture. You see, propagation is an analog thing, not a digital thing.
  6. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Working 3B7A on 160M was tough in these POOR propagation times.

    In better prop conditions it would be about as hard as working the EA8's...well, a tad bit harder maybe.

    You can't WISH magic prop conditions. Or use anecdotal examples as typical.
  7. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    I take great pride in being such a scientist. I think I not only get the picture, but deconvolve it to razor sharpness.
  8. W4MHZ

    W4MHZ Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Actually running 3 watts NVIS into NY from VA on 40 is trivially easy on any evening, has been for six months. That said, I get your point. Like I said we are just talking about the problem in different terms. Working anything in WSPR mode is cheating though :) (Don't get all bent out of shape over that, it's just a joke.)
    W1YW likes this.
  9. W4MHZ

    W4MHZ Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    73 ;)
    W1YW likes this.
  10. W9BJS

    W9BJS Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    This is GREAT Stuff...Thank You
    W1YW likes this.

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