Solar Alert - wind speeds of 800 km/s expected

I posted the wrong graph....here is the correct one

First storm was picked up by the RF-Seismograph from 19:00 UTC to 06:00 UTC on 80 m, on 40 m, and on 20 m from 23:00 UTC to 06:00UTC.
Also mot the noise increase on 15 m between 03:00 UTC and 07:00 UTC.

 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings

Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 64
Issue Time: 2020 Dec 08 1506 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Dec 09: G1 (Minor) Dec 10: G3 (Strong) Dec 11: G2 (Moderate)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

 

the only thing that matters is

What is the potential impact on this weekend's 10 meter contest ??

 

How fast are the 'normal' solar winds?
How will this affect HF propagation?

Some of the questions many of us have finally were addressed by respondents way down the line. Thanks.

 

Okay, I've unwrapped the tinfoil off of my head!

That said, asides from a temporary HF blackout, what's the usual longer term effects of such an event. While a high solar flux level might be meaningless to radio propagation at the height of a solar storm, can we expect an elevated solar flux for the days following or could it just drop back to pre-storm levels as fast as it rose?

 

.....
" 20 meters Alaska Pacific Net was wide open from Northern California to SouthCentral and Interior Alaska one hour ago, good signals, very low noise.

 

Unless my conversion is wrong, that's about 1.8 million mph. Imagine a spacecraft with solar sails, if it could handle it. I believe the record stands at 165K mph. Also, I wonder if there will be an earthquake as a result?

73,
Matt

 

Tune in to find out.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm

 

Solar wind speed is 423 km/S
75 meter NVIS testing shows signal path from Dillingham to Homer with 5 watts, SSB

 

It looks like NOAA rescinded the forecast or downgraded it to G1 for tomorrow, but things still could get interesting. Unfortunately the solar flux is down...

A

 

Normal solar wind is around 300 km/s to 400 km/s, but what really makes the difference it the density and the alignment of earth magnetic field. Check this out GOES-16 real-time solar wind.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

 

It's 6PM CST in the US and K index is still low. I suspect the estimates of the solar wind speed/CME are off and we'll get hit a bit later on. No, this won't damage your radio. It has a small chance of causing further-south than normal aurora, and maybe some auroral propagation. Normally high K index causes radio blackouts in the HF spectrum, meaning you get little to no skip. Right now I'm seeing some mild degradation of 20 and 30m band. However, I'm also seeing better circuits from Chicago to EU on 40M than usual for this time of day (love FT8 for monitoring propagation). Propagation/space weather is interesting. It's not always what you expect.

I recommend watching Dr. Tamitha Skov's Youtube channel. Particularly the video below, done yesterday about this event, which is very amusing as she meant to record but instead live-streamed her video. She's adorable. Also, has a Ph.D in Geophysics and Space Plasma Physics. One of those people I am in awe of for their brain's horsepower. Well worth supporting her on Patreon as she is a real resource to the ham radio community with her weekly solar weather programs.



Jim KQ9I

 

I bet no one else knows what movie the metal monster at 0:13 in the video is.

 

Man, guyz ... here I am again, crawling out from under that rock I apparently live under. Stereo B is working again? Or is it just one spectrometer? Geez, guyz, I need to get out more!! Thanks for this update!