Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by VE7DXW, Dec 8, 2020.
As of 1500 UTC today, the Z component of the IMF is flipping back and forth but it's not that strong, and the SW dynamic pressure has ramped down. Almost no global storm response. Kp is back to quiet conditions as of 06-09 UTC. So in all, it was quite a weak CME from the ionospheric storm perspective.
However, that is not to say that there is no HF change! Indeed, reports above by KC8UD could be interpreted that a negative phase storm is in play - reduced electron density. Yet the mid-latitude ionograms (e.g. Millstone Hill) show a perhaps 20-25% MORE F region density today compared to yesterday, indicating a positive phase response. So I'd say that if 75 meter links are disrupted, that's a good indication of a primary cause in extra electron density structure - not smooth, but ordered with high and low spots - that would interrupt rays on those 75 meter paths, rather than reduced density.
If another impulse comes along later today, which is still in the NOAA SWPC forecast, this will all change again.
Renewed encouragement: get on the air, and report back like KC8UD!
Should I put on my seat belt?
The second storm came in at 21:15 UTC and all communications ceased, only the 40m and 20 m band was available to 00:00 UTC. 80 m communications resumed after 06:00 UTC. The strong solar wind can be seen at the elevated 15 m noise level and the 10 m noise level from 01:00 UTC to 06:15 UTC.
The bands are back but NOAA is still predicting a G3 storm for today....!
6 pages of comments to a non-event !!??
PSKReporter maps disagree. 80 meter communications continued according to FT8 records unabated throughout this period. The band was not closed completely.
Hardly a "non-event". There's opportunity for hams to learn here: this was forecasted as a fairly significant geomagnetic storm, yet it turned out not to be. Lesson: not all space weather forecasts are correct (kinda like my local news channel). Also, solar physics is hard. Also, a storm that was expected to cause X in fact seems to have caused Y. I find this terribly interesting. I liked the info other's have posted about their observations. There's some HF/Solar weather effect status sites I didn't know about and now I do.
Northern lights a 'big miss,' U.S. space forecaster says | Boston.com
But there was an old WELL in Boston that appeared at that time! Causal!