Referring to the previous post, another flare and CME was observed on the left edge of the circled area at about 3-16-16 19:11:55 UTC visible in SDO AIA 304 imagery. Another event occurred south of this area. These events do not appear to be Earth directed at this time. Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 Mar 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels due to a C2 flare from the vicinity of spotless Region 2522 (N14W85), which was rotating towards the NW limb. The flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep (853 km/s estimated shock speed) at 16/0645 UTC. An associated CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at 16/0700 UTC. Analysis of all available imagery suggested the CME did not have any Earth-facing component. A WSA-Enlil run was accomplished and confirmed the CME will not impact Earth. Region 2519 (N05W17, Dso/beta) lost its eastern trailer spots, while an opposite polarity penumbral spot developed just south of the primary leader spot. This created an area of minor N-S aligned magnetic shear and a slightly enhanced magnetic gradient across the region. This minor increased instability likely contributed to the regions production of a B4 flare at 16/1955 UTC and several additional enhancements as observed in GOES SXI imagery. Region 2521 (N17W37, Cro/beta) underwent decay over the period and was inactive. Region 2523 (S10W22, Bxo/beta) was inactive and nearly decayed completely. New NOAA SWPC Region 2524 (N14E69, Hsx/alpha) was assigned to a spot that rotated into view, likely associated with an active region that was expected to rotate into view. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery during the period. .Forecast... Active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are expected early on day one (17 Mar) in response to continuing CH HSS influences. Geomagnetic response is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels as the day progresses and CH HSS effects begin to weaken. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (18 Mar) as CH HSS effects continue to diminish. Day three (19 Mar) is expected to see a return to quiet levels due to a lack of recurrent or transient solar wind features.
Left image: STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 3-17-16 00:50:30 UTC (sun far side) Right image: GOES 13 SXI PTHNA @ 0.4 seconds 3-17-16 00:44:00 UTC The oval area as seen in the STEREO A image shows a region which appears to be an extension of the leading edge (GOES image end of arrow) of Coronal Hole (CH) #65. The region rotates from the left image to the right. The area on the far side extends well below the equator and should rotate into Earth view in 24 to 36 hours (3-18-16 UT). The leading edge of CH #65 may have a strong influence starting about 3-20-16 which could last until 3-30-16 or longer with strong solar winds.
SDO Colorized Intensitygram HMI QLC 3-17-16 01:45:00 UTC The bottom edge of image is the solar equator at the eastern limb The latest SDO HMI is indicating a second sunspot following newly numbered region 2524. This new region is about to rotate into view in the coming hours and appears to be larger in area that 2524. Both may have the same region number. This region appears very active in other imagery. They would reach the Earth-Sun centerline about 3-23-16. We will need a larger size calendar to show all dates and times of coming events.
SDO AIA 304 3-31-16 00:43:55 UTC A small filament eruption has occurred in the south west region of the visible solar surface this date. Based on the location, there is a very small chance of any Earth directed material from this event. Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 Mar 31 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # .Forecast... Geomagnetic activity is expected be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar) due to continued, but waning CH HSS effects. Day two (01Apr) is expected to experience predominantly quiet levels, until late in the day when unsettled to active levels are likely due to responses to a disturbed IMF from the pending SSBC and approaching CIR. Day three (02Apr) is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storming levels for a few isolated periods due to geomagnetic responses to the CIR and negative polarity CH HSS.
SWEOC.org GRAPE Project http://www.sweoc.org/GRAPE.html (Chart above updates every few days or as possible when viewed) STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 3-31-16 01:55:30 UTC Sunspot counts continue to decline. STEREO Ahead imaging indicates almost no new regions are about to rotate into Earth view in the coming 5 or 6 days. It is possible that the count could reach 0 (zero). Usually, a zero count is registered if the total observed count is less than 10. Sunspot Count = 12 The GOES X-Ray Flux today is A 5.6 (lowest level is A0.0). 10.7 cm Radio Flux at Penticton Canada today is 84 (solar min is about 66).
Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 Apr 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at very low levels with no flare activity. Region 2526 (S05W22, Hsx/alpha) is the only spot group on the Earth-facing visible disk. The regions magnetic gradient remained weak with no shear. <see post #244> A nearly 10 degree long, curved filament centered near S25W65 erupted along a SW vector between 31/0020-0110 UTC as visible in GONG-H/alpha and SDO AIA imagery. The associated CME, first visible at 31/0125 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C-2 imagery, was modeled and showed a clear miss to the west and south of Earths orbit. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with only a slight chance for C-class flares all three days (01-03 Apr). Analysis of STEREO-A/EUV imagery did not reveal any active regions within a few days of rotating onto the Earth-facing disk, therefore, Region 2526 remains the most likely source. Geo-space Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet most of day one (01 Apr). Late in the day, the geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active due to the arrival of an expected SSBC and CIR. Day two (02 Apr) is likely to reach G1-Minor storming levels, with a chance for an isolated period of G2-Moderate storming due to influences from the CIR and subsequent CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for G1-Minor storming is expected on day three (03 Apr), due to continued CH HSS effects.
GOES 13 SXI PTHK @ 0.4 seconds 4-1-16 03:00:15 UTC GOES 15 SXI PTHK @ 0.4 seconds 4-1-16 03:16:15 UTC Region 2526 is located just right (west) of center disk Low X-Ray levels are making images darker including this 0.4 second exposure from GOES 13 and 15. There are several examples for reference in earlier posts that show a "brighter" image which indicates a stronger X-Ray level. Latest: 4-1-16 @ 0225 UTC Sunspot Count = 11 The GOES X-Ray Flux: A 3.7 10.7 cm Radio Flux at Penticton Canada: 82
Bottom edge of image is the solar equator - Eastern limb Earth shown to scale (35 x 35 pixels) It appears old region 2524 (N14 degrees) is coming into view and should be numbered new region 2530 later today. At this angle this region is almost 4 times the diameter of Earth (7,917.5 x4 = 31,670 miles) north to south. There appears to be another cluster beyond the leading edge. The SDO AIA 171 image (upper left) is showing the relative magnetic field and a large "crater of plasma" surrounding the new region. This region should reach a geo-effective location (center) about 4-14-16.
Left image: SDO AIA 304 4-10-16 11:13:31 UTC Right image: SDO AIA 171 4-10-16 10:40:35 UTC Oval is showing a filament eruption Square is showing region 2529 Note: The Kepler Observatory is currently in emergency mode. The Deep Space Network is supporting communications and as such some images from other spacecraft may be delayed during this effort. More information: http://www.nasa.gov/feature/mission-manager-update-kepler-spacecraft-in-emergency-mode The two images above are showing a filament eruption earlier this date which started around 10:00 UTC. This region may have discharged a small amount of material towards Earth. This event will be studied during the coming hours. Since the emergence of region 2529 there have been many radio bursts in the 245 MHz band. The latest on 4-10-16 started at 0026 and ended at 0408 UTC (almost 4 hours in duration). Note: The QRZ editor does not support the tab/column function. You can view Radio Burst List at: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/lists/radio/radio_bursts.txt Product: radio_bursts.txt Created: 2016 Apr 10 1310 UT # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Send comments and questions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # Updated every 30 minutes. # # Radio Bursts in Last 45 days # 10cm (2695MHz) Bursts >=100% above background, # 245MHz Bursts > 100 flux units, # 245MHz Radio Noise Storms, # Type II, and Type IV Sweep Frequency Bursts. # Peak Flux Solar Wind # Date Start Max End Obs Q Type Freq or Sweep Speed Reg# #------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2016 04 10 0026 0408 0418 LEA G RNS 245 310 2016 04 10 0125 0125 0125 PAL G RBR 245 100 2016 04 10 0249 0250 0300 PAL G RBR 245 190 2016 04 09 0009 0637 0823 LEA G RNS 245 470 2016 04 09 0032 0032 0032 PAL G RBR 245 170 2016 04 09 0122 0122 0122 PAL G RBR 245 200 2016 04 09 0153 0154 0154 PAL G RBR 245 160 2016 04 09 0236 0236 0238 PAL G RBR 245 240 2016 04 09 0241 0241 0241 PAL G RBR 245 180 2016 04 09 0249 0249 0249 PAL G RBR 245 260 2016 04 09 0307 0307 0307 PAL G RBR 245 140 2016 04 09 0311 0311 0314 PAL G RBR 245 220 2016 04 09 0347 0347 0347 PAL G RBR 245 150 2016 04 09 0354 0356 0356 PAL G RBR 245 130 2016 04 09 0359 0404 0413 PAL G RBR 245 460 2016 04 09 0419 0419 0420 PAL G RBR 245 140 2016 04 09 0501 0502 0502 SVI G RBR 245 170 2016 04 09 0911 0911 0911 LEA G RBR 245 140 2016 04 09 0913 0913 0914 LEA G RBR 245 140 2016 04 09 0930 0930 0930 LEA G RBR 245 270 2016 04 09 0938 0938 0940 LEA G RBR 245 150 2016 04 09 0952 0953 0953 LEA G RBR 245 140 2016 04 09 1122 1122 1122 SAG G RBR 245 150 2016 04 09 1636 1636 1636 PAL G RBR 245 160 2016 04 09 2253 2253 2253 LEA G RBR 245 110 2529 2016 04 09 2301 2302 2302 LEA G RBR 245 110 2016 04 09 2323 2323 2323 LEA G RBR 245 100 2016 04 09 2325 2325 2325 LEA G RBR 245 100 2016 04 08 0749 0749 0749 LEA G RBR 245 140 2016 04 08 1217 1217 1217 SVI G RBR 245 110 2016 04 08 1219 1220 1220 SVI G RBR 245 370 2016 04 08 1225 1227 1227 SVI G RBR 245 120 2016 04 08 1225 1441 2213 SAG G RNS 245 650 2016 04 08 1314 1314 1314 SVI G RBR 245 180 2016 04 08 1317 1319 1319 SVI G RBR 245 380 2016 04 08 1341 1344 1347 SVI G RBR 245 550 2016 04 08 1354 1355 1357 SVI G RBR 245 380 2016 04 08 1411 1411 1411 SVI G RBR 245 120 2016 04 08 1433 1434 1434 SVI G RBR 245 340 2016 04 08 1436 1436 1437 SVI G RBR 245 200 2016 04 08 1440 1441 1442 SVI G RBR 245 680 2016 04 08 1450 1452 1452 SVI G RBR 245 220 2016 04 08 1522 1522 1523 SVI G RBR 245 210 2016 04 08 1640 1641 1642 PAL G RBR 245 480 2016 04 08 1646 1646 1647 PAL G RBR 245 150 2016 04 08 1653 1655 1656 PAL G RBR 245 500 2016 04 08 1659 1701 1701 PAL G RBR 245 250 2016 04 08 1729 1729 1729 PAL G RBR 245 110 2016 04 08 1738 1740 1746 PAL G RBR 245 210 2016 04 08 1758 1758 1759 PAL G RBR 245 230 2016 04 08 1811 1811 1811 PAL G RBR 245 230 2016 04 08 1838 1838 1838 PAL G RBR 245 290 2016 04 08 2026 2026 2026 PAL G RBR 245 110 2016 04 08 2103 2103 2103 PAL G RBR 245 100 2016 04 08 2146 2146 2146 PAL G RBR 245 100 2016 04 08 2203 2203 2203 PAL G RBR 245 100 2016 04 08 2212 2212 2213 PAL G RBR 245 220 2016 04 08 2243 2243 2243 PAL G RBR 245 150 2016 04 08 2257 2257 2257 LEA G RBR 245 150 2016 04 08 2317 2317 2317 PAL G RBR 245 110 2016 04 08 2328 2328 2328 PAL G RBR 245 100 2016 04 08 2334 2335 2338 PAL G RBR 245 310 2016 04 08 2346 2346 2346 PAL G RBR 245 310
Referring to the previous post: Note: Region 2529 should reach an Earth directed location about 4-14-16. Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low this period due to a long-duration C1 flare observed at 11/0202 UTC from Region 2529 (N09E34, Ehi/beta). Region 2529 exhibited some intermediate spot growth and maintained a simple bi-pole magnetic configuration. New Region 2530 (N16W05, Cao/beta) emerged on this disk this period and was quiet and stable. An approximately 10 degree long filament, centered near N18E29, was observed erupting at about 10/1000 UTC. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NNE limb beginning at 10/1100 UTC. CME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, suggests a possible weak, glancing blow at Earth mid to late 13 April. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (11-13 Apr). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels this period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one through late on day two (11-12 Apr) under a nominal solar wind environment. Active levels are expected late on day two increasing to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms by day three (13 Apr). This is due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible weak glancing blow from the 10 Apr CME mid to late on 13 Apr.
SOHO LASCO C2 4-12-16 05:00:00 UTC Mission Manager Update: Kepler Recovered from Emergency and Stable Mission operations engineers have successfully recovered the Kepler spacecraft from Emergency Mode (EM). On Sunday morning, the spacecraft reached a stable state with the communication antenna pointed toward Earth, enabling telemetry and historical event data to be downloaded to the ground. The spacecraft is operating in its lowest fuel-burn mode. The mission has cancelled the spacecraft emergency, returning the Deep Space Network ground communications to normal scheduling. http://www.nasa.gov/feature/mission-manager-update-kepler-recovered-from-emergency-and-stable Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 Apr 12 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Region 2529 (N09E22, Eki/beta) produced multiple low level C-class flares throughout the period. Despite this increase in activity, Region 2529 showed indications of slight decay in its intermediate spots and slowed growth in its larger leader spot. Region 2530 (N15W17, Cso/beta) was absent of significant flare activity while displaying signs of slight decay. <visible in LASCO image above> Other activity included two CMEs off of the south and east limbs that combined to produce a partial halo CME signature. Activity is first visible in LASCO/C2 imagery at 12/0224 UTC. A Type II (215 km/s) radio sweep occurred beginning at 12/0153 UTC and is believed to be associated with this event. Forecaster analysis determined that it is far-sided activity as there is a large filament eruption visible in STEREO EUVI imagery near the same times.
Image: SDO AIA 304 4-18-16 00:43:19 UTC Region 2529 is currently located on the right (west) just north of the equator which appears to be the source of several events in the past few hours. Note Alert Event times in the messages below. The flare reached a preliminary magnitude of M6.7 at 00:20:00 UT. It appears a CME is in progress but due to the location may not be Earth directed. When these events end visit the SWEOC-SWPC Radio Burst log: http://sweoc.org/Daily_Radio_Bursts.html SWEOC-SWPC Alert Log: http://sweoc.org/Alerts_and_Warnings.html Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt Issued: 2016 Apr 18 0148 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays # Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours #--------------------------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4 Serial Number: 525 Issue Time: 2016 Apr 18 0053 UTC ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission Begin Time: 2016 Apr 18 0034 UTC www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2 Serial Number: 1042 Issue Time: 2016 Apr 18 0052 UTC ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2016 Apr 18 0030 UTC Estimated Velocity: 1869 km/s www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R Serial Number: 683 Issue Time: 2016 Apr 18 0049 UTC SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Begin Time: 2016 Apr 18 0023 UTC Maximum Time: 2016 Apr 18 0024 UTC End Time: 2016 Apr 18 0024 UTC Duration: 1 minutes Peak Flux: 120 sfu Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 102 sfu www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5 Serial Number: 143 Issue Time: 2016 Apr 18 0044 UTC SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5 Begin Time: 2016 Apr 18 0014 UTC Maximum Time: 2016 Apr 18 0029 UTC End Time: 2016 Apr 18 0039 UTC X-ray Class: M6.7 Location: N10W62 NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF Serial Number: 260 Issue Time: 2016 Apr 18 0027 UTC ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5 Threshold Reached: 2016 Apr 18 0026 UTC NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.
NOAA/SWPC 10.7 cm Progression Chart last updated 4-4-2016. Today's 10.7 cm Flux has again reached 77 for the second day. This is a smoothed data chart. Sunspot count is at 22. For more info on the Solar Sunspot Cycle, 10.7 cm, and AP progression: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts
Image: SWPC Synoptic Map 5-6-16 1545 UTC Image: SDO AIA 211 5-6-16 22:24:36 UTC Circle and Inset: Coronal Hole (CH #78) Square: Region 2541 It appears negative polarity CH #78 may effect Earth from 5-6-16 2300 to 5-8-16 1200 UTC. The peak effect around 5-7-14 1900 UTC. Solar winds should peak around 5-9-16 0000 UTC. Region 2541 has about a 10% probability of C level flare activity over the next 12 hours.
Image: SDO HMII QLC 5-15-16 12:41:15 UTC While transiting across the far side of the sun, old region 2537 appears to have grown in size since 4/27/16. It has rotated into better view and is now numbered new region 2546 and is classified as an Alpha (low magnetic strength). It is located about 7 degrees south of the solar equator which could pose a threat to Earth in about 6 days (May 31). This region is about 250 times the size of Earth. Old region 2533 should rotate into view just north of 2546 in a day or so along the eastern limb. Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 May 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels this period due to C-class flare activity. Region 2543 (S05W70, Cro/beta) produced two C4 flares at 14/1519 UTC and 15/0409 UTC which were the largest events observed this period. Region 2544 (N20W08, Dao/beta-gamma) underwent growth this period and increased in magnetic complexity while the remaining active regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
