SOHO LASCO C2 2-11-16 22:36 UTC The latest LASCO C2 image this date shows a faint CME reflection in the coronal sphere. It appears this halo may indicate a portion of the event listed above may be Earthbound. The primary wave should be visible in the coming hours. The next DSN communications period today will occur from 0300 to 0600 UTC at DS Antenna 45 located in Canberra Australia. Depp Space Network Now: http://eyes.nasa.gov/dsn/dsn.html SOHO Deep Space Network schedule Created Thu 2016/02/11 11:30:04 UT WK DOY WDY DATE BOT EOT ANT --------------------------------------- 06 043 Fri 2016/02/12 03:00 - 06:00 D45 06 043 Fri 2016/02/12 07:15 - 10:05 D65 06 043 Fri 2016/02/12 14:30 - 18:45 D24 Latest LASCO C2 Images: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi...&NumImg=30&Types=instrument=LASCO:detector=C2 Latest LASCO C3 Images: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi...&NumImg=30&Types=instrument=LASCO:detector=C3
SDO AIA 304 2-12-16 10:43:43 UTC SDO IMSAL AIA 094-335-193 2-12-16 11:07 UTC Referring to the previous posts.....&....Second eruption from Region 2497. Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 Feb 12 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2497 (N13W13, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest flares of the period, an M1 flare at 12/1047 UTC and a C8/1f flare at 11/2103 UTC. Associated with the C8 flare were Type II and Type IV radio sweeps (est. shock speed of 483 km/s) as well as a partial-halo CME. CME analysis is currently in progress, however preliminary results indicate an arrival early on 15 February.
SWPC WSA ENLIL 2-17-16 17:19 UTC Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 Feb 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # .24 hr Summary... The 11 Feb CME has been analyzed and modeled. The results suggest the onset late on 14 Feb to early on 15 Feb. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with active conditions possible, on day one (13 Feb). Day two (14 Feb) is expected to reach minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to the onset of the anticipated 11 Feb CME late in the day. Minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are expected to continue into day three (15 Feb) as CME effects persist.
Latest Update: Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt Issued: 2016 Feb 15 1948 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays # Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours #--------------------------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 700 Issue Time: 2016 Feb 15 1110 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Feb 15: G1 (Minor) Feb 16: None (Below G1) Feb 17: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern
Solar Storm Update: Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt Issued: 2016 Feb 17 2348 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays # Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours #--------------------------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06 Serial Number: 395 Issue Time: 2016 Feb 17 2308 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2016 Feb 17 2307 UTC Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Left image: STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 2-19-16 13:05:30 UTC Right image: GOES 13 SXI PTHNA @ 0.4 seconds 2-19-16 13:40:00 UTC The STEREO image from the far side of the sun is showing the trailing area of CH (Coronal Hole) #56 (Oval). The leading edge of this region can be seen in the GOES image on the right as it rotates into Earth view. The GOES image shows CH#55 (oval) which has effected Earth's magnetic field the past few days. The image also shows solar sunspot regions 2501, 2502, and 2503. SWPC forecaster Carr shows CH#56 in the latest synoptic map (below) as a positive polarity region with a confidence factor of 3 out of a possible maximum of 4. CH#55 has a confidence factor of 4. The map also shows the event probabilities for each sunspot region. It appears the week ahead will be focused on the effects (if any) from CH#55 and any possible CME's from filament surface eruptions.
SWPC forecaster Spencer has updated CH#56 from a confidence level of 3 to 4 and divided the region into three regions adding CH#57 (see previous post). Effects of these regions may start in about3 or 4 days (2-23 or 2-24). Any propagation disturbances may effect emergency radio traffic for Hurricane Winston in the Fiji Islands region. See: https://forums.qrz.com/index.php?threads/2016-hurricanes-and-tropical-storms.507833/#post-3756261
GOES 13 SXI PTHNA @0.4 seconds 3-3-16 15:24:00 UTC A short filament eruption CME has been observed in this SXI and SDO AIA 304 imagery in the area circled above that started around 14:00 UTC this date. This region is very close to the Earth-Sun centerline and may have a small portion that is Earth directed. In SDO imagery it appears the majority of the material may be projected slightly behind and below Earth orbit. Projected arrival time (if determined) could be available after further study late today.
Referring to the previous post and G1 Watch 3-6-16: Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 Mar 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at very low levels with only B-class activity. Region 2510 (N05E43, Cro/beta) was predominantly stable, but did produce the largest flare of the period, a B5 flare at 03/1550 UTC. Region 2506 (S07W60, Hsx/Alpha) continued to decay, losing nearly all of its intermediate and trailer spots. The remaining numbered regions were unremarkable and inactive. Between 03/1500-1700 UTC, an approximately 6 degree filament centered near S05E02 disappeared as observed in GONG/H-alpha imagery. Further analysis will continue as other updated imagery becomes available to determine if a CME was associated with this event. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Geospace Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels early on day one (04 Mar). An increase to unsettled to active levels is expected late on day one due to the approaching CIR. Geomagnetic response is expected to continue at predominantly unsettled levels, with an isolated period of active levels on day two (05 Mar) due to the to the arrival of a CIR and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions are likely to escalate for a brief period later in the day of day three (06 Mar) due to CH HSS effects.
SDO AIA 304 3-5-16 21:14:07 UTC Solar equator is in the center (left-right) of this image. Region 2506 was under eruption when this image was taken by SDO. An arching filament eruption on the western edge has been visible for several hours. The flare may create a radio burst. Region 2514 is located in the upper left. Coronal Hole (CH) #60 is just left of 2506. The effects of this region should reach Earth during the coming day. Further information should be available over the next day.
Referring to the previous post, a CME appears to have been created in conjunction with the flare. Due to the location of this event, an Earth directed component may not be likely. Further SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery should be available in coming hours.
Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt Issued: 2016 Mar 06 2250 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays # Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours #--------------------------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: WARK07 Serial Number: 64 Issue Time: 2016 Mar 06 2245 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected Valid From: 2016 Mar 06 2243 UTC Valid To: 2016 Mar 07 0500 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
SOHO LASCO C2 3-6-16 23:36:00 UTC Note: Images from the LASCO C2 imager have been unavailable since 3-9-16 at 03:43 UTC. Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 Mar 11 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at background levels until around 11/0400 UTC when an enhancement likely caused by a CME from 06 Mar was observed. Solar wind speeds were steady near 320-350 km/s until 11/0400 UTC when a steady increase to end-of-period values near 400 km/s was observed. IMF total field (Bt) values steadily increased from 4 nT to 26 nT after 11/0400 UTC and Bz reached -25 nT briefly late in the period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (11-12 Mar) due to continued CME effects followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (11 Mar) due to the effects of a likely CME. Quiet to active levels are expected on day two (12 Mar) due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (13 Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides. SDO AIA 304 3-6-16 14:43:55 UTC Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt Issued: 2016 Mar 11 1503 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays # Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours #--------------------------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06 Serial Number: 398 Issue Time: 2016 Mar 11 1441 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2016 Mar 11 1441 UTC Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
SDO AIA 304 3-12-16 21:29:07 UTC A moderate filament eruption is underway at the time of this post. Due to the location, there is a possibility of plasma being sent Earthbound. More on this later as additional images become available. PS: Update the SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph is sending images!
SDO AIA 304 3-16-16 06:43:43 UTC Region 2519 (circle) Region 2522 Right (West) limb eruption ACE RTSW 3-16-16 12:16:07 UTC Near region 2519 appears to have erupted about the same time as region 2522. There was both an electron and proton enhancement with the Type II Radio Emission from region 2522. Region 2519 may have also produced a CME visible in SDO imagery at the same time. Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2016 Mar 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 2521 (N17W30, Dao/beta) produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/1538 UTC, as well as a couple of B-class flares. Region 2522 (N15W85, plage) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2 flare at 16/0646 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (853 km/s est. shock speed) at 16/0645 UTC. A CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 16/0700 UTC, likely associated with the C2 flare activity. Analysis is underway to determine if there is an Earth-directed component and potential impacts at Earth if there is. Region 2519 (N05W12, Cso/beta) exhibited weak decay as it lost the majority of its trailer and intermediate spots. Region 2523 (S10W15, Cro/beta) was numbered during the period, but was quiet and stable. .Forecast... Minor storming (G1-Minor) conditions are likely on day one (16 Mar) due to continuing CH HSS influences, coupled with periods of prolonged southward Bz component. By day two (17 Mar), the CH HSS influences are expected to begin to wane, resulting in primarily unsettled to active geomagnetic response. Day three (18 Mar) is expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels as CH HSS effects diminish.
