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The Inevitable Death of Ham Radio

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by AA7BQ, Nov 25, 2004.

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  1. AA7BQ

    AA7BQ QRZ Founder QRZ HQ Staff QRZ Page

    Joe Tomasone (AB2M)
    November 23, 2004

    Yes, yes, I know. You've heard this before. It's been pronounced when
    FM was introduced, screamed from the mountaintops when no-code came to
    be, and continues even today with BPL. However, I have seen some
    disturbing trends lately, and I think that they point towards the slow
    and painful death of the hobby we hold dear. Please, indulge me for a
    moment as I explain.

    Whenever there is any threat to Amateur Radio, be it potential band
    reallocation, Part 15 intrusion, or any other issue that threatens to
    upset the status quo, we hams immediately raise the one sacred,
    (usually) FCC-scaring, blood boiling rallying cry that we have - WE
    PROVIDE EMERGENCY COMMUNICATIONS. We never justify ourselves anymore
    as advancers of the radio art (we'd be hard pressed to do so these
    days), so the only value we can provide to justify our continued
    occupancy of billions of dollars of spectrum is merely emergency
    communications. I believe that very soon, certainly in my lifetime, we
    will be all but out of that game. Allow me to explain.

    I have been a resident of Tampa, FL for the past few years. 2004 will
    certainly be remembered around here for a long time - and should have
    been a shining example of emergency communications saving the day time
    and time again. You didn't hear that this time. Wonder why? I spent
    time in some of the hardest hit areas here in Florida, and what I saw
    from an emergency communications perspective scared me silly. Before
    we tackle that, however, let's go back in time a little:

    1991: A newly licensed ham living in Long Island, NY; I am called up
    to help provide communications in support of Hurricane Bob, which
    would up dealing a glancing blow to the eastern end of the Island. We
    were activated by the local emergency management office, and assigned
    to various government and first responding agencies to allow for
    intercommunication if needed. Fortunately, we were not tasked in my
    immediate area.

    1996: TWA Flight 800 crashes off the coast of Long Island. Hams assist
    the Red Cross in providing communications for mass care operations
    (primarily). This, I will later realize, is the first operation I have
    been involved with in which hams were merely augmenting a cellular
    system that was overloaded for an agency that has radio communication
    equipment of its own but rarely uses due to training and equipment issues.

    2001: 9/11. I am forced by my employer to sit this one out in Florida
    (where I have arrived earlier in the year), but manage to scrape
    together a web-based database to manage the load of volunteers. I
    quickly realize that this, again, is a Red Cross/Salvation Army
    support operation. I never heard of any assistance to FDNY, NYPD, Port
    Authority Police, the EMO, or anything else.

    2004: Four hurricanes in almost as many weeks. Hardly anywhere in
    Florida has not been affected by these storms. People are without
    food, shelter, electricity, water, telephones, cell phones (in many
    cases). Essentially, much of Florida has dialed the clock back 100
    years or so. Tensions are high. The EMOs consider how to prevent civil
    disturbances and looting of incoming food and supplies. Fire
    Departments are going door to door looking for survivors. Driving
    through the main street of a town at night is hazardous at more than
    5mph due to the amount of overhead and downed debris and electrical
    wiring (which probably is dead, but who knows?).

    So, you might ask, how did Amateur Radio respond?

    I'm not sure we did.

    I responded to 3 seriously hit areas: Wauchula (in Central Florida),
    Punta Gorda (in South Florida) and Pensacola (in the Florida Panhandle).

    In Wauchula, we delivered a portable repeater system so that the
    responding agencies could communicate. That sounds like a fine use of
    ham radio - except it was a Forestry repeater, on their frequencies.
    Sure, we hams brought it and deployed it, but anyone familiar with the
    setup could have. The Sheriff's Department lost a huge tower (and thus
    their repeater) in the storm, leaving them with no communications save
    simplex, which didn't even come close to covering their operating
    area. Therefore, deputies in the furthest reaching areas had no
    communications. We were able to move their repeater to another
    location that had a working antenna and saved the day. But once again,
    we did not operate OUR radios, save for local simplex communications
    to get this all accomplished.

    As the EMO had no tasking for us (by now the cellular providers had
    their mobile cell sites around), we left.

    Punta Gorda. Ground Zero for Hurricane Charley. I arrive there a week
    after Charley hits to help relieve the operators from the local area.
    I get there to find no tasking other than Red Cross communications,
    and a Section Manager so starved for something to do - ANYTHING to do
    - that he cooks up a plan to have hams drive around the community
    soliciting health and welfare traffic. Remember, folks, this is a full
    WEEK after the Hurricane. If you haven't gotten a message out to your
    loved ones in a week, you probably don't want to. Again, there's
    little to do - the Red Cross is using Nextels - which are working.

    Pensacola. In the wake of Hurricane Ivan, the call goes out - hams are
    needed - BADLY. I kiss the YL goodbye, load my Jeep, and start out on
    the 8 hour drive. Upon arrival, I am sent to the local Red Cross (here
    we go again) headquarters to relieve operators. There, I meet two hams
    who inform me that they have passed 3 messages in the past 24 hours.
    Three. One ham has extensive damage to his home and, quite frankly,
    this is a better place for him to sleep at the moment. The other ham
    wonders what we are doing there. He departs the next morning.

    In the morning, I am informed that Red Cross operations are moving
    from the Chapter Headquarters to a larger facility in the donated
    basement of a commercial company. I am asked to establish
    communications from there to the EOC. Getting there, I am staggered to
    find that I am expected to provide communications to a building that
    has working telephones, internet access, email, a slew of Nextels that
    are being handed out, and, to add insult to injury, 2 Red Cross comm
    vans with every type of radio known to man (including ham), satellite
    links into the National Red Cross Network, and WiFi.

    I tell the hams running the show at the EOC what the story is - I'm
    providing communications for a building that has more communications
    than I think I have ever seen in one location before. They respond by
    sending a total of 4 more hams to assist. I speak to the local EC and
    tell him that if he doesn't want a boatload of really perturbed hams,
    he'd better find some taskings for us to justify putting out the ARES
    equivalent of an All Points Bulleting screaming for ham help. He
    promises that we will have something to do in the morning.

    I spend a part of the night helping the Red Cross folks set up WiFi so
    that they don't have to run cabling to each workstation for network
    access. I begin to wonder if I could have left my license at home.

    The next morning, we do indeed have a tasking. The Red Cross is making
    a push into the hardest hit local area on the beach near the Gulf of
    Mexico - as close to the landfall point as we're gonna get. (It
    literally is described almost like an offensive against rebels in
    Iraq). Given the amount of sand that was blown over roadways, I am
    chosen along with another of my overnight compatriots for the task
    since we both have 4-wheel drive. We depart, with instructions to meet
    and team up with two other hams at the parking lot of a local
    supermarket just outside the devastated area. There, we are to await
    the Red Cross team that will push Mass Care into this area.

    Upon our arrival, we meet the two hams immediately, and they are NOT
    happy. They've been waiting there for this Red Cross team for HOURS,
    and each time they ask where the Red Cross is, they are told "any time
    now". Seeing us, they quickly decide that we are their relief. They've
    had it, and head home. Net Control doesn't sound too surprised to hear
    that they have abandoned ship.

    My new partner and I wait for three hours. Yes, that's right, THREE
    HOURS. No sign of the Red Cross. During our wait, we take some time to
    take a look at the shopping center in this hard-hit, hurricane ravaged
    area. The supermarket is open. OPEN? We look inside. They have milk.
    MILK? I can't buy milk in TAMPA, and we never came close to being hit
    by Ivan! Further inspection here reveals that they have ice, bread,
    bottled water, and everything that people in a hurricane-ravaged area
    should be waiting in long lines and mugging their fellow citizens for.
    All the while, my cell phone has a great signal, and I am able to make
    and get calls at will. Now, really starting to question our mission
    here, we begin asking Net Control the tough questions: WHERE IS THIS
    TEAM, AND WHAT IS OUR MISSION? A great deal of scurrying is heard over
    in the EOC, and eventually we are told that they don't know where the
    Red Cross team is, but we should await them.

    Sorry. We've been here for three and a half hours, and the team before
    us was waiting almost as long. I snap. I drive back, collect my
    belonging, and without so much as a word, I begin the drive home,
    arriving at 4am, the stomach acid churning in my stomach having proved
    quite adequate to keep me awake for the drive. The other ham (and a
    few others) leave the area as well, ranging from disillusioned to
    plain old mad.

    Sitting back afterwards, I began to realize a few trends that had been
    slowly emerging:

    1. Ham Radio (well, ARES anyway) has largely become the free
    communications auxiliary to the Red Cross.

    Worse, they already have enough communications capability to more than
    cover themselves. Their problem? A lack of trained communicators.
    Suddenly, I grasp why we always seem to be assigned to the Red Cross.
    I try to remember the last time I was assigned to anyone other than
    the Red Cross during an emergency. I have to go back almost ten years.

    2. The Red Cross doesn't need us.

    Even while assigned to the Red Cross, the only task consistently put
    to hams is to relay shelter census counts. I almost couldn't believe
    my ears as I heard hams relaying shelter census counts to an EOC when
    both had fully working landline phones. Why are we used in this
    scenario? Because they don't have to use Red Cross personnel to do it.
    For their critical comms, they use Nextel. I can't remember the last
    time I saw the Red Cross even use their OWN radios, which they have in
    abundance.

    3. Cell phones, mutual aid repeaters, Blackberries are replacing Ham
    Radio as the inter-agency communications glue.

    None of the Emergency Management Offices I worked with had any need
    for communications outside of these. Cell phone providers rush in
    mobile cell sites (called "COWs" - Cellular On Wheels - a cell site on
    a trailer) when an emergency hits - and registered Emergency
    Management personnel get higher priority on the cell network - so
    overloaded cell sites are becoming a thing of the past for our served
    agencies. Blackberries run on the cellular networks and are low
    bandwidth devices. Even in areas with no electricity, the Blackberry
    owners were tapping away like mad.

    Now, you may say that this isn't the case in your area. You might even
    be right. However, I think we have seen the end of the era in which
    Amateur Radio saves the day as a matter of course in this country. In
    fact, the only example I've seen lately of Ham Radio coming through
    where all else fails is in the Hurricane Nets to the islands like
    Cuba, Grenada, and Haiti. In other words, those outside the US.

    I see this as in inevitable slide down a slope towards more and more
    communications capability in the hands of the masses. Look at the
    revolution in smart cellphones - I carry a Treo 600 - a device from
    which I can surf the web, get and send email, and make and get phone
    calls - all in one little device. It wasn't all that long ago (fifteen
    years, perhaps?) that a cell phone was considered small if it fit in a
    briefcase. Where will we be in fifteen more years? Will we be able to
    still claim that we provide a critical, unique, robust communications
    capability? I think that once so many forms of communications saturate
    the general public that they can't all possibly go down during a
    disaster that we will have lost that argument. Remember when CW was
    the mode that got you through when all else failed? Now, make that
    argument to anyone but a CW buff and you'll be laughed at. I remember
    being able to show my HT to a teenager and see the look of amazement
    when I made a contact over a repeater to the next County. Now, that
    same teenager will ask if that big cell phone I'm carrying can play
    cool ringtones. I rapidly see the day approaching in which we will be
    relegated to the museums like the dinosaurs that we will have become -
    a quaint memory of what once was. A nostalgic trip down communications
    lane. We will, as a hobby, become the macrocosm of CW - outdated,
    outmoded, and universally laughed at as we try to claim that we are
    needed somehow.

    And then the spectrum vultures will come.
     
  2. WA0TTN

    WA0TTN Ham Member QRZ Page

    I hope this doesn't sound too critical, but you might have posted a link to the original posting on eHam. There were a lot of great comments, many of which I expect will be repeated here.
     
  3. KF6MYV

    KF6MYV Ham Member QRZ Page

    Interesting. However can you take your Treo 600, make an antenna for it, Run the feedlines, make the power supply, calibrate it and shoot the single from your QTH to wherever w/o paying someone to hook you through? I think not. This hobby is far from going away. Not in my lifetime anyway and I hope to help keep it going.

    I suggest everyone pick up a book, go buy some parts, and BUILD BUILD BUILD!

    [​IMG]
     
  4. N1XHF

    N1XHF Ham Member QRZ Page

    All I can say is wow! Not good
     
  5. N3JBH

    N3JBH Ham Member QRZ Page

    someday we shall see that some huge EMP will destroy all this fancy solid state type gear. than those using the old tube stuff will be needed. i dread the thought of that day but one nice size electro magntetic pulse. good very well bring the end of modern comuincations as we know it. now if i could only spell we be in great shape. you wouldnt beleave i am married to a teacher with 10 years colledge would ya [​IMG]
     
  6. KT0DD

    KT0DD Ham Member QRZ Page

    Amateur Radio will change, But I don't believe for a second that it will die. There is no replacement for the ionosphere, and our ability to operate outside of an existing infrastructure. Next time a disaster hits, try hooking up a piece of wire to the back of your PC (not one that is SDR enhanced, because then it would be a radio) and see how far you'll get on the internet. We may lose some spectrum, and have to share more limited frequencies, but a slot will be there for us Hams, at least for the next 20-30 years. And if by slim chance we are shut down, I'll move to a 3rd world country that still relies on HF/VHF/UHF because they're too poor for anything else. 73.
     
  7. KF4OUI

    KF4OUI Ham Member QRZ Page

    I beg to differ. I was in Punta Gorda just a few days after Charlie. I was with the Red Cross not as a ham but as a driver for a truck loaded with supplies. I had to drive around looking for damage, then give the people the stuff I had on the truck.

    Anyway, I took along my Icom V8000 and mobile antenna. While I was in the truck, this radio was on and tuned into the net control frequency. There was non-stop traffic on the net. My phone did not always work because I ventured away from US-41 and all the emergency cell phone trucks. My Icom always worked. If I needed to reach the Red Cross HQ or FEMA, I could have.

    The majority of the big guns were on US-41. There were cell phone tower trucks, satellite phone trucks, internet access trucks - you name it. But away from the highway, in trailer park land, people were still fairly isolated. No car and you were stuck.

    I will agree that the role of ham radio in emergency communications is less than what it used to be, but it is not dead yet. You can cover small areas with cell phone tower trucks, but it is hard to cover all of FL from the Gulf Coast, through Orlando, then to the East Coast. When there are multiple hits, like this year, commercial resources are stretched thin.

    Also, ham radio is still important for non-emergency, community service type communications. Just last weekend, I used my boat to provide communications for a small kayak race that benefited the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation. Stuff like this can still be used as ammo to keep spectrum.

    -- James KF4OUI
     
  8. WF7I

    WF7I Ham Member QRZ Page

    While I don't think ham radio is going to die, I do think that the rationale that we provide critical emergency aid is kind of outdated, for all the reasons stated by the original article. True, there are still situations where cell phones won't cut it, but they are few and far between.

    To say that we'll lose all our frequencies and die just because we can't justify ourselves as the best emergency comm network around is false though. Look at CB -- lots of foul language and behavior, no organized emergency aid nets, and certainly no contribution to the "state of the art" in radio. But nobody has shut them down. Worst case, we become another CB service. But I don't see that happening.

    And amateur radio does contribute in small ways to expanding the state of the art in electronics and communications. I can speak firsthand that many engineers and some scientists are hams, many of their motivations and ideas come from having played with electronics. I think it would be stupid for the US government to ever decide to shut it all down just because the Red Cross has a lot of satellite trucks and there are too many cell phones!

    People were yelling about the demise of this hobby 20 years ago when I got into it, and they still are. Yet, here it still is.
     
  9. K6SGH

    K6SGH Ham Member QRZ Page

    A clue that might be worth watching is the decision the FCC will make regarding the morse code requirement for HF. If in fact the FCC wants our frequencies for other uses, then they will NOT want to increase the number of people using these frequencies now. Therefore, they will not adopt a no-code policy....and the number of amateurs will continue to decline until there will be no one left to complain.
     
  10. N0NWO

    N0NWO Ham Member QRZ Page

    I am actually amazed that we have not lost more spectrum to business as it is. After all... money rules. I think amateure radio makes a big mistake of always using the emergency trump card. What we need more of, is public service work. Hepling with communications at parades, local marathons and triatholon type events, skywarn, special olympics. If we want to keep our frequencies, we need to be doing a lot of this sort of thing year round, every year, and gget our names and pictures in the papers and on tv news doing it.

    That does not mean to say that emergency communications should not be promoted too, but we need more of the other.

    our local club in Grand Rapids, Mn. is very active with skywarn, Forget-me-not Foundation (works with handicapped people using horses) fishing events for the handicapped, communications for local snowmobile club when they raise money for food shelf during their radar runs, local marathons and so on. We do try to get our name in the press for doing thses things. It is not about ego or needing some one to pat us on the back, but we are creating a lot of goodwill.

    We are also active Emergency wise. We have a wonderful working relationship with the county sheriff Departement and the area coordinator for homeland security. Homeland security just bought vhf radios, antennas and power suplies for eleven hospitals in north east minnesota. It is the first time all these hospitals have had real time direct communications with one another. We have had 2 drills this year and ALL the athoritys are very impressed with what we were able to do.

    So amateur radio dieing??? no... not yet. But we need to be out there more in the public eye doing community service, or I can see a day when it will happen.
     
  11. N9OQT

    N9OQT Ham Member QRZ Page

    Let us not forget about International good will as well.

    Let us hope that the US will be willing to make a small investment of spectrum, to help fellowship, and goodwill to other nations.

    I admit that communications have greatly improved over the last 30 years, cell phones, internet, availability of FRS and GMRS radios, internal radios for different organizations, etc.

    I think that there are still some times when only we can help out.

    A few years ago, a bunch of hams near Eastern Illinois University helped them do something that would still be difficult today to accomplish as good as well did it!

    They had a series of 'events' going on at the same time for a Science Triathalon. There were Model Rockets in one area outside, a bridge building competition in one building, and a computer programing competition in another building. They needed to have all of the results quickly entered into a database, to compute score, and winners for prizes to be awarded immediately after the events were over.

    I wrote a program in Quick BASIC, and we had several portable packet systems set up. Each ham operator at each event had a 2 meter voice radio, and a 440 packet radio. So each operator could send the info of the packet, and it was automatically entered into the database, no retyping which could have introduced errors in the data.

    They also had voice comms in case of some malfunction, but since each location had 2 operators, and 2 setups, we had built in redundancy.

    Everything went off without a hitch, and we were asked to come back 2 more years after that. The instructor that did the Science Triathalon decided not to do it anymore, and so we were no longer needed. But I still think back to the first time, and how I only had 2 weeks to learn Quick BASIC, I already knew BASIC, write a complex program to input data from multiple TNC's at the same time, testing, and testing, and testing it again, as we couldn't fail and let down the 1000 kids that would be participating, and all of the operators in town setting up portable packet stations with battery power, and testing those too.

    It is probably one of my fondest memories from the first few years as a ham. And it was a great way to talk about ham radio with kids that already had interest in the sciences!

    I wonder if any of those kids ever got their license after their initial inspirations of ham radio that day. I know I was asked about how it worked at least 50 times that first day.

    I HOPE that ham radio stick around for a long time.

    73 from Baghdad,

    YI9OQT / N9OQT

    And Happy Thanksgiving to all!
     
  12. KV9Y

    KV9Y Ham Member QRZ Page

    Joe,
    In some respects, I see your point & understand why you might feel frustrated. The incidents you describe are somewhat disturbing, but keep in mind that when all else fails, we will be there, radios at the ready. Referencing KF4OUI's posting, the commercial emergency communications equipment will always be placed in an area that will help the most people: high traffic highways & urban areas. The more isolated areas are almost always the last to regain utility services; that's where we come in. The United States has far more rural areas than urban, prime locations for ARES and RACES groups to participate.

    As a participant in many emergency weather nets in the midwest, I can state that without a doubt the Weather Service needs us. Tornados, funnell clouds and other severe weather can be masked from radar by heavy precipitation and even incidences of odd propagation. The government and public at large rely on weather spotters to do their jobs. Are they needed every single time they are called out? Absolutely not. Do they feel their time is wasted? In most cases not.

    This is just not right. Here are some examples of contributions being made through or because of ham radio: high-speed spread-spectrum communication; APRS; Propagation research (PropNet); space communications; etc...

    The long and the short of it is this... ham radio isn't going away in our lifetimes. We are needed... No, not every day, or for every emergency. We are society's CYA plan. When all else fails, we will be there, talking to the world.

    73's and happy Thanksgiving, all.
    Ken - KC7RAD
     
  13. KB1LQD

    KB1LQD Ham Member QRZ Page

    I see a delcine also, I am a new ham (15 yrs old!), every one in my high school has a cell phone, no one is interested, becuase A: too geeky, well first off, ya it may be a little "geeky" but after oyu do it, its freaking amazing how much fun it is!!! sure, they can log onto AIM, I do, but look im on HF talking with a complete stranger 1300 miles away, making a new friend, sure, he/she is bound to be about 20 years older than me but who cares, im still waiting to meet a younger ham. i think cell phones and the internet is "declining" if you will, our hobby. But i see another problem, I see that there are alot of people who are losing the want to be on the "smarter" crowd, not as in good grades, im talking about tuning up on the cw and pumping away, no its too hard, heck some younger poeple dont think about taking the test because we need to study for it. im my mind it is sad, and hey, im not a 60 yr old complaining about the lack of knowlege & interest in the younger groups in ham radio, i am part of the younger group. I want the younger people to get into ham radio, but i think all this funding for youth awareness of ham radio isnt being targeted right, personaly, i see the need for mabey a really big new program, mabey a AIM type thing, but we already have that, ecept its not as easy as clicking on the net, and you would have to follow rules and cant use bad language. i see some of the people not wanting to follow that. i think that we need to target the older people, the ones that are not captivated by the neat ringtones and Oh My God! i can take a picture on my phone, my generation will grow up in the next 15 years, and hey guess what, i think alot people will get bored with the ringtones and heck, buy a real digital camera! sure, i also support the advertisement for kids, there is a friend that is slightly interested in radio, but seems like hes more into the schematics and learn how to fix electronics than talk on the radio, its a start.

    personaly, where do most kids shop, wal-mart right? what if walmart had a big radio section, all those neat cases with flashing buttons and the promise of talking 1000's of miles, do you think more people would be involved? or heck, at least understand the hobby better?if the big-guns of dept-stores wer the jump on the radio wagon, i think there would be more interest. look at mcdonalds, they target the kids, no you dont see a 1/1000000 of the ads in a magazine, and heck most arnt ing the food magazines, they are in the tv ads for the tv shows that target the crowd they are looking for. think marketing... how do we "sell" ham radio?
     
  14. N9CJT

    N9CJT Ham Member QRZ Page

    This afternoon and evening 21 hams in this county received 24 different pagings from the local Emergency Management director as severe thunderstorm watches and tornado warnings were issued. He relied upon our information to advise most local industries through seek shelter advisories, although two of the largest industries, Cummins Engine Company and Arvin Industries, liasoned with us through their own Ham employee emergency communications teams.

    Simultaneous with the EM director's first pagings, our local severe weather net was activated at the direct request of the National Weather Service, which continued to issue spotter requests and receive spotter reports via Amateur Radio equipment installed at the regional NWS office throughout the opeartion. NWS warnings were issued in "downwind" counties as a direct result of the information we provided, just as warnings had been issued for our counties from data provided by Hams in "upwind" counties. In this county we operated a total of 130 minutes before NWS told us we could stand down.

    What's this about no more need for emergency response via Amateur Radio?
     
  15. KC8VOJ

    KC8VOJ Ham Member QRZ Page

    I don't believe that ham radio is dying I am a 16yearold amateur radio opperator I have been liscensed since 14. i am an active homebrewer I love to build things. People talk about how computers are taking over well we wouldn't have computers if it wern't for some hams that got together in the seventies and helped prototype the first computers. I do agree however that more young people like myself need to be actively involved in ham radio.

     
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