8/24/2021 We had what some call the most breathtaking solar eruption in quite sometime. Seeing this level of material being ejected from the Sun tells me without a shadow of a doubt that our Sun is continuing to ramp up Solar Cycle 25. We may indeed have passed the terminator now. (Discussions with Scott McIntosh over the past week have led me to believe we are within one solar rotation--27 days-- of a real increase in solar activity. Let's hope this might be the start of that!) The NASA and NOAA models differ if it will glaze earth or hit us. Should arrive near-earth about 8/27. From Tamitha Skov: The longer post with dramatic photos will probably be posted publicly shortly on her YouTube channel.
will there be another Carrington Event 1859 ? that one happened at the height of solar cycle 10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event Less severe storms occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported. The March 1989 geomagnetic storm knocked out power across large sections of Quebec. On 23 July 2012 a "Carrington-class" solar superstorm (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, solar EMP) was observed; its trajectory narrowly missed Earth. The event of 774 is the strongest spike over the last 11,000 years in the record of cosmogenic isotopes. carbon-14. The event of 774 did not cause catastrophic consequences for life on Earth, but had it happened in modern times, it might have produced catastrophic damage to modern technology, particularly to communication and space-borne navigation systems. In addition, a solar flare capable of producing the observed isotopic effect would pose considerable risk to astronauts. The common paradigm is that the event was caused by a solar particle event (SPE), or a consequence of events as often happen, from a very strong solar flare, perhaps the strongest ever known but still within the Sun's abilities. According to a summary of the state of knowledge on radiocarbon dating in 2020, the spike is thought to have been caused by an extreme solar proton event. Another discussed scenario of the event origin, involving a gamma-ray burst, appears unlikely, because the event was also observed in isotopes 10 Be and 36 Cl.
This gave me three thoughts. 1) This burst is huge, but not the hugest the Sun is capable of producing. Very scary! 2) I really need to get my antennae up and ready. 3) If the Sun goes Nova (which, I understand, is not possible) it WOULD GLAZE the Earth by burning it down to a tiny glass ball. Warp 12, Scotty, NOW!
There are actually more solar flares in erupted a few days ago, that will or are hitting earth about now. Reports are it is creating short-term static on some HF bands. As I understand it there is good and short-term bad from flares and also have had CMA eruptions. We are only at K4 which as I understand it should not cause radio blackouts like a few months ago but static on some HF bands in the middle latitudes where most of us are. I did some quick checks today from about 20 remotes I can operate from. Seemed very good conditions on 20, a few very strong stations on 17 and especially strong 20m PY4 and PP5 station from Southern Brazil. I checked my KP4 remote and some of the best signals with low static I have heard but will see how it is later tonight on 40 although also lots of So America commercial stations are stronger than usual. Currently, we have some of the best Solar flex levels this year in the low 90s together with high 47 SN sunspot numbers. While the stuff belching from our Dear Sun, short-term gives us static and worst-case blackouts or fading for maybe 30 minutes, it also activates the ionosphere we depend on for the DX HF bands. There are a lot of emergency nets being activated and our friend W7HU has been live-streaming trying to reach friends back in Cuba and getting some on-scene reports as Ida passes over. At landfall, Ida - predicted to be Cat 4 - will likely be stronger than Hurricane Katrina, which weakened to a Category 3 storm upon landfall. Ida will remain a Category 4 storm with winds between 100-140 miles per hour across the SE Louisiana coast. So, good HF communications might help any emergency needs and I assume the Hurricane net and the ham station at the National Hurricane Center will be activated. I am going to do some casual participation in the soon-to-start Hawaii and Australia QSO parties, just need to decide after checking conditions which remote to plant myself at. As long as K stays at 4 the advantages of the high SFI and SN should outway the negatives from the flares and junk that can cause static, fades, blackouts but usually only for less than an hour, n I am no expert but as I understand it.
This might interest Solar Cycle 25 fans out there, The Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) is a scientific facility for studies of the sun at Haleakala Observatory on the Hawaiian island of Maui. Known as the Advanced Technology Solar Telescope (ATST) until 2013, it was named after Daniel K. Inouye, a US Senator for Hawaii.[1] It is the world's largest solar telescope, with a 4-meter aperture.[2][3] The DKIST is funded by National Science Foundation and managed by the National Solar Observatory. It is a collaboration of numerous research institutions. I believe it's due for final completion and service in November so just in time for the emergence of Solar Cycle 25. G3SEA/KH6
