Aftermath of Hurricane Lane & A New Cycle Begins: Solar Storm Forecast 08-30-2018

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by KB7TBT, Aug 31, 2018.

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KB7TBT Ham Member QRZ Page

Aftermath of Hurricane Lane & A New Cycle Begins: Solar Storm Forecast 08-30-2018

KB7TBT, Aug 31, 2018

#1

M3OZP, K2GSP, M1WML and 11 others like this.
N0CEL Ham Member QRZ Page

Good broadcast, as usual, Miss Tamitha. And regarding the far side flaring that will soon come into Earth's view, and ***maybe*** an earlier than first thought beginning of SC25???.....From your mouth, to God's ears. Have a great Labour Day Holiday folks. 73 Carl de NØCEL

N0CEL, Aug 31, 2018

#2

M1WML likes this.
W2HL Ham Member QRZ Page

Great report Tamitha!
Have you received your Amateur radio license yet?
Looking forward to hearing you on the bands.
Howard W2HL

W2HL, Aug 31, 2018

#3

M1WML likes this.
W7TJ Ham Member QRZ Page

I would encourage readers to review this week's ARRL Propagation bulletin for a little better propective on the advent of cycle 25, and how deep and long the low was for cycle 23. First, it would be a real positive if the current cycle would bottom this year instead of a long drawn out low as we had with cycle 23. ( long drawn our lows usually usher in new but low cycles ) Secondly, as pointed our in many sources, new sunspots need to be reverse polarity AND high latitude on the solar disc ( not mid latitude ) to signal the start of a new cycle. Once this has been observed and cycle 25 spots exceed the number of old cycle 24 spots, we are on our way....however... the real key of the new cycle were be not only how quickly the new cycle begins ( in intensity ) but the new sunspots must be magetically strong, complex, and of significant size to have any meaniful effect on the solar flux. This is what dogged cycle 24 from start to where we are now. There is still considerable water that needs to go over the dam before we can cheer the advent of a new cycle - at this point wishful thinking and quite premature.
Randy W7TJ

W7TJ, Sep 1, 2018

#4

M1WML likes this.
G3SEA Ham Member QRZ Page

W7TJ said: ↑

I would encourage readers to review this week's ARRL Propagation bulletin for a little better propective on the advent of cycle 25, and how deep and long the low was for cycle 23. First, it would be a real positive if the current cycle would bottom this year instead of a long drawn out low as we had with cycle 23. ( long drawn our lows usually usher in new but low cycles ) Secondly, as pointed our in many sources, new sunspots need to be reverse polarity AND high latitude on the solar disc ( not mid latitude ) to signal the start of a new cycle. Once this has been observed and cycle 25 spots exceed the number of old cycle 24 spots, we are on our way....however... the real key of the new cycle were be not only how quickly the new cycle begins ( in intensity ) but the new sunspots must be magetically strong, complex, and of significant size to have any meaniful effect on the solar flux. This is what dogged cycle 24 from start to where we are now. There is still considerable water that needs to go over the dam before we can cheer the advent of a new cycle - at this point wishful thinking and quite premature.
Randy W7TJ
Click to expand...

W7TJ said: ↑

I would encourage readers to review this week's ARRL Propagation bulletin for a little better propective on the advent of cycle 25, and how deep and long the low was for cycle 23. First, it would be a real positive if the current cycle would bottom this year instead of a long drawn out low as we had with cycle 23. ( long drawn our lows usually usher in new but low cycles ) Secondly, as pointed our in many sources, new sunspots need to be reverse polarity AND high latitude on the solar disc ( not mid latitude ) to signal the start of a new cycle. Once this has been observed and cycle 25 spots exceed the number of old cycle 24 spots, we are on our way....however... the real key of the new cycle were be not only how quickly the new cycle begins ( in intensity ) but the new sunspots must be magetically strong, complex, and of significant size to have any meaniful effect on the solar flux. This is what dogged cycle 24 from start to where we are now. There is still considerable water that needs to go over the dam before we can cheer the advent of a new cycle - at this point wishful thinking and quite premature.
Randy W7TJ
Click to expand...

G3SEA, Sep 1, 2018

#5

M1WML likes this.
G3SEA Ham Member QRZ Page

Interesting explanation.

Here in Honolulu on the Island of Oahu we were indeed fortunate not to experience anything like the 52 inches of rain on the Big Island.
This Hurricane was a slow mover as it inched northward, weakening and then moving off to the West as a Tropical Storm.

Live TV coverage from the Big Island seemed to be on 24/7 and
Comms in general were secure apart from heavily flooded areas.
Statewide Ham VHF/UHF systems were mostly secure too.

As Oahu's Mayor so aptly put it " We dodged a bullet ". :O

G3SEA/KH6

G3SEA, Sep 1, 2018

#6

M1WML and KP4SX like this.
KX1B Ham Member QRZ Page

Glad we have started Solar Cycle 25! I love the enthusiasm that you report this with

KX1B, Sep 1, 2018

#7

M1WML and K5VZD like this.
WA6AM Ham Member QRZ Page

Great report, and bring on SC-25!!!

WA6AM, Sep 1, 2018

#8

M1WML likes this.
K1LKP Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

W7TJ said: ↑

I would encourage readers to review this week's ARRL Propagation bulletin for a little better propective on the advent of cycle 25, and how deep and long the low was for cycle 23. First, it would be a real positive if the current cycle would bottom this year instead of a long drawn out low as we had with cycle 23. ( long drawn our lows usually usher in new but low cycles ) Secondly, as pointed our in many sources, new sunspots need to be reverse polarity AND high latitude on the solar disc ( not mid latitude ) to signal the start of a new cycle. Once this has been observed and cycle 25 spots exceed the number of old cycle 24 spots, we are on our way....however... the real key of the new cycle were be not only how quickly the new cycle begins ( in intensity ) but the new sunspots must be magetically strong, complex, and of significant size to have any meaniful effect on the solar flux. This is what dogged cycle 24 from start to where we are now. There is still considerable water that needs to go over the dam before we can cheer the advent of a new cycle - at this point wishful thinking and quite premature.
Randy W7TJ
Click to expand...

======

K1LKP, Sep 1, 2018

#9

M1WML likes this.
KF5ZPL Ham Member QRZ Page

Dr. Tamitha
Thank you once again for a full blown comprehensive report for the week and the starting of Solar cycle 25.
Very informative. Keep up the good work..
Brad KF5ZPL

KF5ZPL, Sep 1, 2018

#10

M1WML likes this.

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