Sunspot AR2987 exploded and its CME willl directly hit earth

Thank you Alex for the updates and documented effects on propagation. I'm a firm believer in what you are doing.

 

Wow. So the tail really CAN wag the dog! I'm learning a lot of science in this thread!

And to think, up until a few weeks ago I had no idea that geomagnetic storms can knock deploying satellites right out of space, but that really did happen.

 

I don't believe it's pseudo-science. Pseudo-science is conjuring up ghosts and spirits with an AM radio scanning all its frequencies. There are thousands of studies showing some sort of causation between geomagnetic disturbances, propagation changes, etc. followed by a seismic event. Here's an interesting abstract:

https://www.academia.edu/76128141/E...ural_geomagnetic_activity_A_North_Korean_case

In the North Korean case, it was found that geomagnetic disturbances were NOT present in two particular earthquakes despite data from other earthquakes over time that showed there were disturbances in those quakes. The thought was that North Korea detonated an underground nuke causing the earthquakes.

I'm not saying there is a cause-and-effect relationship between a CME and an earthquake. But in my limited scientific mind, there seems to be something associated with it. Just my two cents.

 

Science is not a belief system, nor a matter of opinion, but a compelling , causal presentation of fact.

This subject-- flares as 'causing' earthquakes-- has been explored in great detail three years ago on QRZed..

I suggest that you read W7UUU's post, as it basically addresses the heart of the matter.

Inability--or inaction-- to present a prediction indicates an unwillingness to shed a false hypothesis.

73
Chip W1YW

 

Not exactly. The force on a satellite from near vacuo , tenuous atmosphere goes as the relative velocity squared. So sats do get some drag by same. In the case of LEO's the drag can change with the effective scale height of the ionosphere (read: solar activity) and this changing density--albeit transitory-- can produce a drag component which can make the orbit highly elliptical and brings the sat to far lower heights at places in the orbit, exacerbating the drag effect. Eventually that can leads to orbital re-entry.

Most LEO sats are programmed for such inevitable destruction.

73
Chip W1YW

 

True.

I never said there was a direct cause-and-effect relationship. I did use the word causation, which apparently, in scientific research circles is a loaded word, too. I'm not a scientist, just a ham. I find the concept interesting. Why shut the discussion down? Based on some of the studies I've recently read there "appears" to be something more than a random relationship between solar activity and earthquakes. Are all these scientists used in my cited abstract pseudo-scientists because they haven't produced a compelling, causal presentation of fact?

I'm going to self-censor myself before the mods shut this down.

Peace.

 

No one said that the discussion should be shut down. The point is that all the relevant issues have long since been articulated on QRZed and are easy to find by a 5 second search. W7UUU is asking the key, pithy question which addresses the 'concept'--and failure to present a prediction just shows that the concept has no basis in fact. Go explore the prior posts from 3 years ago. Nothing has changed.

73
Chip W1YW

 

The whole thread should be a NFT /s

 

All that happens, but is not what happened with the Starlink satellites.

They are purposely launched in a parking orbit, then tested after deployment, and moved to higher orbit if they pass the tests. All that takes time. Because of the solar flare, they ran out of time and altitude to process the remaining 40+... But they did get 8 or 10 in to useful orbit.

 

We had a fair tremor here earlier today.
Unfortunately it was man made.
2 doors over they decided to breakup the cement floor of a demo'd garage
by lifting one side of it up and letting it fall to crack it into smaller chunks.
Startled the dog & I - we were lookin for cw dx on 20M.

 

Earthquakes AND noisy band conditions!!! its just too much anymore

 

Not a “loaded” word, whatever you mean by that, just a plain old word that means exactly what it says:

cau·sa·tion
/kôˈzāSH(ə)n/

noun

1. the action of causing something.
   "investigating the role of nitrate in the causation of cancer"
   • the relationship between cause and effect; causality.
     plural noun: causations
     "a strong association is not a proof of causation"

 

OK, using the forementioned past history triggers, Friday the 15th, basically sunrise/moonset +/- a few hours say 6:00 to 8:00AM prior to the local high tide at 9:08, location between Carrizo Plains and the South Salton Sea, including East out to China Lake, Lone Pine and below Bishop. What's the chances of it happening? Small. What's the chance of being ridiculed? Pretty good. It's a hobby, to enjoy, to answer curiosity, to scratch the itch of misunderstanding and wonder. Great topic for a late night 80 meter conversation. Erik N6NWW

 

You know, if I time it right with the boiled cabbage and pickled eggs, I could explain the quaking noises from the bathroom.

 

Amateur radio is a radio service of technically inclined individuals. Our mission, in part, is to: "enhance the radio art". To be technically vetted, we take, and pass, tests for same. As such, we manifest inquiry AND critical thinking. That separates us out from, say, model train aficianados, dowsers, and so on.

Some may choose not to accept who we are, and manifest self-hate, relegate us to the rubric of 'mere hobbyists', or attack those who remind us that as an applied science, we have an obligation , through licensing, of being more than flat earth adherents.

And that is what you will see and see here: folks reminding you of your obligation through license.

Your sarcasm is not appropriate. If someone poses an extraordinary hypothesis they need to make an extraordinary prediction from same, based upon the hypothesis.

Making fun of those using critical thinking is in very poor taste.

73
Chip W1YW