Region 2443 is close enough to the north/south centerline to be an important part of the CHSS created by Coronal Hole (CH) #18. The Coronal High Speed Stream will be reaching Earth in the coming hours. Region 2443 is about 119,000 miles in length (east to west) and 47,500 miles north to south. SWPC forecaster Stockman indicates this region has a C = 95%, M = 55%, X = 15%, P = 1% chance of flare activity. Any flare or CME from this region will probably mix energetic particles with the the CHSS at a very high velocity. CHSS effects plus region 2443 effects equals great aurora's and poor broad spectrum hit or miss communications. SWPC Latest Forecast: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion See SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g3-strong-g2-moderate-geomagnetic-storm-watches-issued-02-03-november The two white lines vertical (north/south) and horizontal (east/west equator) show the center that points directly at Earth.
Rice University MMS Dials: http://mms.rice.edu/mms/realtime.php SWEOC.org Webpage 60 second refresh: http://sweoc.homestead.com/Dials.html It appears the leading edge of the forecast CHSS has reached the ACE spacecraft over the past hour or two from the time of this post. The leading edge of the Solar Wind Stream is very dense, high pressure, low temperature, low velocity and a south IMF polar angle for starters. ACE is about 1 million miles closer to the sun than Earth. The "dials" can change very rapidly and over a wide range.
SDO HMIIC QLC 11-3-15 19:15:00 UTC Region 2443 reaches the Sun-Earth centerline just north of the equator at about 1830 UTC. The region has weakened since post #151. Image SDO AIA 302 11-4-15 03:43:43 UTC Region 2445 Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2 Serial Number: 1029 Issue Time: 2015 Nov 04 0349 UTC ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2015 Nov 04 0323 UTC Estimated Velocity: 790 km/s NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Referring to post #153 and the two images (AIA 304 not 302): A Ten flare is associated with solar flares. During a solar flare if a 10 cm (2695 MHz) wavelength radio burst surpasses 100% of the background noise, a ten flare is said to be in progress. Almost all major flares are associated with ten flares. Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Nov 04 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels during the period. Region 2445 (N17W74, Eai/beta) was the most active spot group on the visible disk. It was responsible for the largest flares of the period; an impulsive M2 flare that was in progress at the time of this writing, an impulsive M1/1n flare at 04/0326 UTC, and several low to mid level C-class flares. Among the C-flares were a C1/Sf flare at 03/2335 UTC and a C3/Sf flare at 04/0032 UTC. These two flares, as well as the M1 flare, all appeared to have associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These events were submitted into the WSA Enlil model for analysis where it was determined that none of these events had an Earth-directed component. Since the M2 flare was just occurring, no coronagraph imagery was available to determine if a CME was associated with this event or not. Also associated with the M1 flare were a Type II radio sweep (est. shock speed 790 km/s) and a 220 sfu Ten flare. Region 2443 (N06W03, Fkc/beta) saw decay in its intermediate and trailer spot areas and began showing signs of magnetic simplification. It produced a non-impulsive, slow-rising C5/Sf at 03/1909 UTC. Further analysis determined the associated CME did not have an Earth-directed component and should have no effect on Earth. Region 2447 (N03E17, Cro/beta), remained in a magnetically simple bipolar configuration and was mostly inactive throughout the period. A region of enhanced plage rotated onto the east limb near N12 during the period. Due to its proximity to the limb and foreshortening effects, accurate analysis to determine the magnetic structure of the spot group is degraded, and will be accomplished when it has rotated further onto the disk. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares for the next three days (04-06 Nov), primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 2443 and 2445. The new region of flux that rotated onto the visible disk earlier on day one (04 Nov) has remained fairly inactive, but may further increase flare potential over the next several days. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to just below high levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for day one (04 Nov), with high levels likely on all three days of the period (04-06 Nov) in response to elevated solar wind speeds from the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1-Minor levels for the next three days (04-06 Nov). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected continued enhanced conditions in response to the positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds began the period averaging near 650 km/s before increasing to over 700 km/s by 03/1830 UTC. Speeds remained around the 700 km/s mark through approximately 04/0900 UTC, peaking at 770 km/s at 04/0405 UTC. Just after 04/0900 UTC, speeds began to decrease to end-of-period values near 610 km/s. The IMF total field strength varied between 5 nT and 12 nT, ending the period near 10 nT. The Bz component varied between 9 nT and -10 nT for most of the period, but settled in to end the period around -2 nT. The phi remained in a mostly negative orientation throughout most of the period. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced early on day one (4 Nov) as CH HSS conditions persist. Solar wind parameters should begin to recover from the CH HSS, with total field expected to be between 5 and 10 nT, Bz should return to near neutral values, and wind speeds should begin decreasing to the 500 to 600 km/s range. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at active to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels during the period as effects from the positive polarity CH HSS combined with a suspected weak transient to interact with Earths magnetosphere. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels on day one (04 Nov) with periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels expected and G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely early in the day in response to high solar wind speeds. Periods of active conditions are expected to persist into days two and three (05-06 Nov) as the CH HSS gradually subside. Product: radio_bursts.txt :Created: 2015 Nov 04 1410 UT # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Send comments and questions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # Updated every 30 minutes. See http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/radio.html # # Radio Bursts in Last 45 days # 10cm (2695MHz) Bursts >=100% above background, # 245MHz Bursts > 100 flux units, # 245MHz Radio Noise Storms, # Type II, and Type IV Sweep Frequency Bursts. # Peak Flux Solar Wind # Date Start Max End Obs Q Type Freq or Sweep Speed Reg# #------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2015 11 04 0030 0030 0033 LEA G RBR 245 5400 2445 2015 11 04 0118 0118 0119 LEA G RBR 245 110 2015 11 04 0133 0133 0133 LEA G RBR 245 4200 2015 11 04 0323 //// 0334 PAL C RSP 041-180 II/2 790 2445 2015 11 04 0323 0324 0325 PAL G RBR 2695 220 2445 2015 11 04 0324 0325 0327 PAL U RBR 245 56000 2445 2015 11 04 0543 0543 0543 SVI G RBR 245 170 2015 11 04 0912 0912 0912 LEA G RBR 245 110 2015 11 03 1605 1605 1606 SAG G RBR 245 230 2015 11 03 2217 2217 2218 LEA G RBR 245 160 2015 11 03 2333 2333 2333 LEA G RBR 245 520 2445 2015 11 02 0552 0552 0552 SVI G RBR 245 110 2015 11 02 0633 0633 0633 LEA G RBR 245 1200 2445 2015 11 02 0850 0850 0850 LEA G RBR 245 110 2015 11 02 1315 1315 1315 SVI G RBR 245 110 2445
Left Image: SDO LMSAL 11-4-15 -AIA 93 14:24:24, AIA 335 14:24:25, AIA 193 14:24:32 UTC Right Image: SDO LMSAL 11-4-15 -AIA 93 11:17:01, AIA 335 11:17:03, AIA 193 11:17:06 UTC Smile! Region 2443 takes a Solar Selfie while writing the previous post. WARNING: It is not known if a CME was created at this time. If there was, it would probably be Earth directed. Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R Serial Number: 676 Issue Time: 2015 Nov 04 1453 UTC SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Begin Time: 2015 Nov 04 1421 UTC Maximum Time: 2015 Nov 04 1425 UTC End Time: 2015 Nov 04 1433 UTC Duration: 12 minutes Peak Flux: 180 sfu Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 124 sfu www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2266 Issue Time: 2015 Nov 04 1420 UTC ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2015 Nov 04 1405 UTC Station: GOES-13 www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4 Serial Number: 518 Issue Time: 2015 Nov 04 1412 UTC ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission Begin Time: 2015 Nov 04 1351 UTC www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2 Serial Number: 1031 Issue Time: 2015 Nov 04 1410 UTC ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2015 Nov 04 1343 UTC Estimated Velocity: 955 km/s www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R Serial Number: 675 Issue Time: 2015 Nov 04 1408 UTC SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Begin Time: 2015 Nov 04 1338 UTC Maximum Time: 2015 Nov 04 1341 UTC End Time: 2015 Nov 04 1346 UTC Duration: 8 minutes Peak Flux: 290 sfu Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 124 sfu www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
The latest WSA ENLIL model indicates the flare noted in the previous post did create an Earth bound CME. The peak arrival time is forecast at about 1800 UT on 11/7/15. This model is still being updated as other images and data are being analyzed. LASCO C2 images also indicate the possibility of two additional CME's in the following hours.
STEREO Ahead EUVI 171 11-7-15 10:42:11 UTC If we flip back to Post #141 on 10-22-15 (it may still be at the top of this page) there is a familiar face. Old regions 2436 and 2437 have reached the mid point on the far side of the sun as viewed this time from the STEREO Ahead spacecraft today. The magnetic interaction between the two regions can still be seen. This might be an indication of the regions continued strength. They will be at this point on the Earth side of the sun by about 11-20 to 11-21 for a return engagement if this trend continues. Region 2446 can be seen on the left (western as viewed from Earth) limb and new region 2449 on the right (eastern). Note the "Halloween Skeleton Mask" in Coronal Hole (CH) #17 who's effects are reaching Earth this date. Classic Synoptic Artwork courtesy of SWPC forecaster Smith. Region 2443 is still a strong magnetic location. In the past few weeks some regions have exhibited "strong parting shots" as they reach the western limb. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-synoptic-map
Region 2449 appears to have created a flare (M3) in the past hour. The region is located south of the equator (white line) on the eastern limb. Images from LASCO later today should indicate if any CME was created. The oval area appears to show a large crescent shaped filament on the eastern limb which could pose a threat to Earth in a few days. Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt :Issued: 2015 Nov 09 1433 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays # Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours #--------------------------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R Serial Number: 677 Issue Time: 2015 Nov 09 1341 UTC SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Begin Time: 2015 Nov 09 1300 UTC Maximum Time: 2015 Nov 09 1306 UTC End Time: 2015 Nov 09 1311 UTC Duration: 11 minutes Peak Flux: 670 sfu Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 108 sfu www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2 Serial Number: 1032 Issue Time: 2015 Nov 09 1338 UTC ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2015 Nov 09 1305 UTC Estimated Velocity: 957 km/s www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event. #------------------------------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4 Serial Number: 519 Issue Time: 2015 Nov 09 1324 UTC ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission Begin Time: 2015 Nov 09 1305 UTC www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
A new region about to emerge on the eastern limb fires off a practice round. Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4 Serial Number: 520 Issue Time: 2015 Nov 09 1632 UTC ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission Begin Time: 2015 Nov 09 1459 UTC NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. The Latest SOHO LASCO C2 image is indicates a CME was generated by M5 long duration event described in previous post #160 on page 8.
I can share a sneak peek of something new I have been working on. Bookmark the link and follow along (with comments if you wish) as I complete this in the coming weeks. Everything I have been posting in this thread will be used. Watch the videos to start with....... SWEOC.org Training Portal: http://www.sweoc.org/SWE_Training.html 73's Keith
STEREO A COR2 11-9-15 15:16:10 UTC ------- SOHO LASCO C2 11-9-15 14:00:00 UTC The two images show the blast from both sides of the sun. The Earth maybe grazed by the effects of this event on 11-12-15 at about 0200 UTC. The solar wind at that time could reach 650 kilometers per second according to the latest SWPC WSA EMLIL model and forecast. Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Nov 10 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center The geomagnetic field is expected to continue reaching active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels, with an isolated period of moderate (G2-Moderate) storming, on day one (10 Nov) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Active conditions are expected to continue into day two (11 Nov). Later on day two, a glancing blow from the 9 Nov CME is expected to impact Earths magnetosphere with periods of G1 geomagnetic storm levels. G1 storming is likely to continue into the early periods of day three (12 Nov). Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Nov 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on day one (11 Nov), with isolated active levels at the beginning of the period, as the CH HSS persists. Late on day one, the arrival of the 09 Nov CME is anticipated with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely through day two (12 Nov). On day three (13 Nov), a return to unsettled to active conditions is expected.
SDO AIA 171 11-12-15 23:41:35 UTC Old regions 2436 (upper) and 2437 (lower) are starting to emerge on the eastern limb. Indications are that 2437 may have weakened over the past few days. One indication is the number of lines of flux that arc between the two. Region 2436 may have increased in strength and is still located a few (15 to 19) degrees north of the solar equator. Refer to previous post #141 to compare to this image. These regions will reach the Sun-Earth line about 11-12 or 11-13.
