I am convinced that the sun will do as it pleases, as it has always done and in defiance of all predictions. But we like it because it's difficult, not because it's easy. It is wonderful to catch the surprises that the HF offer us. And please don't talk about ft8 which has nothing to do with real DX done in ssb or cw. Hello everyone 73 Peppe
I have been quite happy with the solar activity of the last few months. Lately, I have taken to working a bit on 20m each night about 9:30pm EST. I have yet to fail to make at least one contact either across the Atlantic, or to the West coast. Having obtained my license in 2018, things look marvelous to me. I cannot even imagine what a moderate solar maximum will be like.
Can't wait for the solar cycle to really start kicking off and get a SFI of over 100 on a daily basis. That way I can really start logging some good SSB DX. But until then, I'll just have to keep going with FT4 and FT8. The one thing about Digital modes, at least the vast majority of people you contact log and verify your contacts. Can't say the same with SSB. I'm about 80% verified with FT4/8 contacts and less than 25% on SSB contacts.
This cycle's peak may well be lower than the previous ones, but at the peak, we'll still enjoy some good DX. I am looking forward to working VK friends again from my work QTH parking lot with 5 watts on 10 meters soon!! As for cataclysmic CMEs? "fuggit about it" ... !! (I've been binge-watching that cartoon) 73 de K9CTB
I started doing HF in June 2016, at the moment I have 169 confirmed dxccs and I can guarantee you that making a qso in ssb has a different flavor, I do not doubt that digital ways represent progress, but I prefer human contact, friendships are born, it is another world believe me As for the confirmations, I can tell you that in my case they are 55%, and the confirmed dxccs are 169 out of 181, patience, I'm not in a hurry, I can wait. (I only use 100W, a simple vertical 9m ground mounted with an ATU at the base and a multiband endfed) 73 Peppe
NO Cycle 25 is NOT heating up faster ….slower. Go back in to cycle 21 and 22 ….15 Meters was solidly open a year and a half past the cycle's bottom. At the 2 year mark, 10 meter openings abounded. Drawing on forecasters and analysts that have some REAL operating experience, when you have a very low cycle such as 24, there are usually one to two other low cycles that follow. Cycle 25 will be another low cycle tho with a broader top than cycle 24. A return to the heady days of cycle 21, 22, or even 19 will occur, however not in most of our Ham Radio Lifetimes. Do your homework instead of relying on these forecasts that are book smart but not street wise. - Randy W7TJ
While I've been a shortwave listener on and off for more than a couple decades, I've only been serious about getting into HF as a ham radio operator in the last couple years. All my experience so far has been at the bottom of the cycle and I've still thoroughly enjoyed playing radio on the HF bands. When the SFI comes anywhere near 100 I'm probably going to lose my bleeping mind lol. While I'm looking forward to the uptick I'm not waiting around to have some radio fun.
Modern Grand Solar Minimum will lead to terrestrial cooling Abstract: Pages 217-222 | Published: 04 Aug 2020 Valentina Zharkova Newly discovered solar activity proxy-magnetic field measurements indicate that the Sun has entered into a modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature. Recent progress with understanding a role of the solar background magnetic field in defining solar activity and with quantifying the observed magnitudes of magnetic field at different times allowed us to enable reliable long-term prediction of solar activity on a millennium timescale. This approach revealed a presence of not only 11-year solar cycles but also of grand solar cycles with duration of 350–400 years. We demonstrated that these grand cycles are formed by the interferences of two magnetic waves with close but not equal frequencies produced by the double solar dynamo action at different depths of the solar interior. These grand cycles are always separated by grand solar minima of Maunder minimum type, which regularly occurred in the past forming well-known Maunder, Wolf, Oort, Homeric, and other grand minima. During these grand solar minima, there is a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance, which impose the reduction of terrestrial temperatures derived for these periods from the analysis of terrestrial biomass during the past 12,000 or more years. The most recent grand solar minimum occurred during Maunder Minimum (1645–1710), which led to reduction of solar irradiance by 0.22% from the modern one and a decrease of the average terrestrial temperature by 1.0–1.5°C. This discovery of double dynamo action in the Sun brought us a timely warning about the upcoming grand solar minimum, when solar magnetic field and its magnetic activity will be reduced by 70%. This period has started in the Sun in 2020 and will last until 2053. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243 Valentina Zharkova Northumbria University September 2013 - present Full Professor, Department of Physics and Electrical Engineering, United Kingdom C/O Department of Mathematics and Information Sciences Pandon Building, Faculty of Engineering and Environment, University of Northumbria Newcastle upon Tyne NE2 1XE, UK Courses Little ice age could hit earth Reference: Zharkova VV, Shepherd SJ, Popova E, et al. Heartbeat of the sun from principal component analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millennium timescale. Sci Rep. 2015;5:15689. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689 [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
You've got to be kidding....... SFI is low. Has been low and will continue to be low. Not trying to be controversial but the proof is in the puddin. Turn on your rig and tell me how many bands are making your "waterfall" light up like a Christmans tree. Maybe one at any given moment. But wishful thinking is a positive. "I think I can, I think I can"
Several are pointing out that Cycle 25 is coming along more slowly than previous cycles, or that it is generally slow in arriving ("That's rubbish," "NO Cycle 25 is NOT heating up faster ….slower," "You've got to be kidding," etc.). The posted article isn't suggesting that Cycle 25 is coming along quickly, or more quickly than previous cycles. It is simply stating that the NOAA/NASA Cycle 25 Prediction Panel estimate made in 2019--however right or wrong it might have been--is not supported by data collected thus far, which suggest the peak will arrive sooner THAN THAT COMMITTEE'S 2019 FORECAST.
