Sunspot Cycle 25 Will Be a BIG One -- Latest Research for Ham Radio

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by K8QS, Sep 17, 2021.

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  1. K8QS

    K8QS Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Physicist Dr. Scott McIntosh explains why sunspot cycle 25 will likely be big. For a quick overview, go to 24:10 - 27:51 and to the conclusion, 50:18 - end. Fascinating and convincing research with many implications for amateur radio HF operators. From Ham Radio Perspectives.

     

    Attached Files:

    N4FZ, KE0DM, KG5URA and 4 others like this.
  2. W7TJ

    W7TJ Ham Member QRZ Page

    Cycles that start slow as this one has ( and the same with cycle 24) end up being low cycles. Usually when we experience a low cycle such as cycle 24, one to two more low cycles follow. We are almost 2 years from the low set November of 2019 - The solar flux is not able sustain values over 100. This time during the stellar cycles of 21 and 22, solid DX openings were in progress on 15 meters with the same on 10 meters by October. Check NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Centers Interactive graph titled solar cycle progression for cycle 25 - The top is projected to a low but longer top than cycle 24. Strong cycles will return, however it won't be this one. Hopefully cycle 26 or 27....sadly not in many of our Ham Radio lifetimes.
     
    NL7W, WJ1MK, N5MDF and 12 others like this.
  3. N4UP

    N4UP Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Would love this one to be BIG but I am not counting on it. Will believe it is BIG if and only if it happens.

    I spent four years as a research physicist ( 1972-1976 ) developing atmospheric and ionospheric predictive codes for the USAF and routinely met with other DoD physicists and contractors developing comparable codes. First thing I learned was that every predictive code ( and analysis ) is biased in one or more ways and therefore "predict" different results, sometimes very different results. It is nice when you are right, instead of just lucky, but being consistently right is quite rare. Sure, "they" have made a lot of progress since the 1970s but I still see lots of differences in predictions. Who to believe ?

    Understanding the underlying physics is one thing, but putting it all together in a way that is consistently right, another thing altogether.

    So. We can hope this fellow is right. For now ( some of us ) are just singing the bottom of the cycle blues ( with appreciation to Raul Midon ).
     
    MI0GRG, PY4IM, HA2ZB and 15 others like this.
  4. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    I modeled the last few cycles a while back (a year ago)with three cyclical components comprising an overall waveform . For SC25 it then predicts a deep out of phase null --which we now see--with a very large in-phase peak to follow, which itself lasts for only months, somewhere in the 2025 period. The rise only becomes significant for the SFI sometime in late 2023. Before that, the results are behind the slowly varying, quasi Gaussian function we usually ascribe to the sunspot cycle. It is more like a delta function!

    Why would I possibly be motivated to publish this? Believe me: I get enough flack with fractals:)!

    But hey--wadda I know:)?

    73
    Chip W1YW
     
    KB5UKT, KI4ZUQ, W4HM and 10 others like this.
  5. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Initial conditions and 'boundary conditions' dominate the predictions. Hence the suspect aspect:)

    But you know this.
     
    EA3FNT, N4FZ and M1WML like this.
  6. N3EG

    N3EG Ham Member QRZ Page

    I say bigger in terms of individual peaks, each one about 90 - but overall it will have a widely separated dual peak and be another bust.
     
    M1WML likes this.
  7. K6VOX

    K6VOX XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    "Might" like winning the lottery....
     
    N3LAC, WJ1MK, K4DXG and 4 others like this.
  8. KA1BSZ

    KA1BSZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    ya......not in our radio lifetime....wouldn't cha know it! Maybe god will send me back to start over and this time be so smart to get my extra at age 7 and be king of the airwaves and have 7 band dxcc by age 10. One can only hope.
     
    KA2MWS, NG5O, N5MDF and 5 others like this.
  9. KA1BSZ

    KA1BSZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    Well if his prediction is wrong, at least the low bands will be better!
     
    EA3FNT, K7RA, W4HM and 5 others like this.
  10. KK4YDR

    KK4YDR XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Time for wet noodles laying on the forest floor with a random length and tuner and WHAM 10m contacts until your sick of hearing em'
     
    DM2TT, N4FZ, M1WML and 2 others like this.

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