"Who Are We" - Demographics of US Amateur Radio Licensees

Depends on the knowledge you are talking about. I don't need to know how to ride a horse to drive a car. What is valuable knowledge from the era of the horse and buggy era that is applicable today is the basics of carriage construction. I recall seeing a badge on a car, an Oldsmobile perhaps, indicating the carriage on that car was made by a company that built carriages for a very long time. Back when the company started though it used a different kind of horse power to propel it.

I have thought about it.

It's a cost to benefit analysis with electronics today. It exists in all kinds of products. I can buy a Bic lighter or a Zippo lighter. When one runs empty or the flint runs short I toss it out for the city to burn the plastic away in their waste-to-electricity plant. The other gets more fuel and another flint.

Are you seriously going to get out a soldering iron to repair a stuck key on a USB keyboard? I'll give you two keyboards just so I wouldn't have to watch you do that. I bought a dozen keyboards for $25 from a place I did contract work because every new computer came with a keyboard and they wouldn't toss the keyboard just because the computer it was attached to died. It would have cost me only $24 if either of us could have made change, there was a rule about keeping cash in the office so I donated the dollar to avoid holding up the sale of a dozen $2 keyboards. I gave a few of those keyboards away to family, because $2 is worth not seeing them buy a replacement for many times over at a big box store. A computer keyboard is the Bic lighter of computer parts to me, not a Zippo.

Even before we'd replace the whole computer there was a point of "not worth it" on parts. A bad memory chip before meant tossing the whole SIMM. Then it was tossing the motherboard. Now we run a memory check and if the test fails then the entire computer case and all that is inside is sent to recycling or returned to the point of sale if the support contract didn't run out.

As a computer tech my time has monetary value just like the computers I support. If the time for repair is "not worth it" then that part is replaced. We used to break computers down to a number of board level components. Now the individual parts are so cheap we don't even look at the board, we consider the entire box a replacement part. That's true of radios too, there's a "not worth it" level on radios. It used to be at the level of resistors and capacitors. Then to sub-components on different boards. Now it can be the entire box.

This is about taking your money. The thing is people are attached to their money so they don't give it up for new hardware until the "not worth it" level is reached. Greater wealth and cheaper hardware just moved that "not worth it" level over time. That's a good thing to me. I still need to know how these computers work on the inside or my time as a computer tech gets to the "not worth it" level. If or when computer hardware gets cheap enough then the IT department gets folded into the department that handles staples, sticky notes, and printer paper.

 

For what you predict to happen there would have to be a rule change by the FCC, and according to some of the comments here the FCC is unwilling to make any changes. Those are contradictory statements. If the desire is to stop that from happening then someone has to lift a finger to submit comments to the FCC in opposition.

So, which is it? Is the FCC going to leave the licensing as it is for all time? Or, are people going to speak up so the FCC doesn't turn amateur radio into HF bands for "citizens"? If the FCC isn't going to do anything then it's not going to become a mail in form. If the FCC is going to do something then maybe we should speak up so they know we'd like them to act. Maybe, possibly, it does nothing to influence their decision but if we don't even try then we get what we asked for, at least metaphorically. But there's nothing to worry about, right? The FCC isn't going to change anything because they have no reason to.

 

Well, yes, I don't mean to be contradictory. As a minimum, yes, nothing will change on the ham side of the FCC for the time being. No amount of comments or complaining at the FCC will likely be heard for at least a little while longer for the time being. They're still worried about their current fight with the FAA and the 5 GHz issue right now. There might be a really bad landing at an airport that kills some people (because someone is talking on their brand new 5G cell phone during final instrument approach on less than 1 mile visibility conditions...) and the FAA will then be doing a lot of finger pointing at the FCC and how all the money they got from AT&T will be spent to compensate the relatives of those who lost their lives in a really bad airplane landing and the FCC will be doing a lot of finger pointing at the FAA saying they had more than 2 years to make sure their radio altimeters still work. (Not to mention all the other international issues that are sucking up all the oxygen in our government officials at this moment.)

 

Pretty sure the FCC can do more than one thing at a time. They'll get around to looking at Part 97, pretty sure that's inevitable. I believe it would be a good idea to have something on their desk from the Amateur radio community with some good ideas for when they do come around for their usual review of their rules. The easier we make it for them the better. That doesn't just mean making a good argument on why but giving them a complete enough picture on what is being asked of them so there's no confusion. I recall someone suggesting the ideal means to get that across is line for line edits of Part 97 so they can just "drop in" that text. Show them the why and how, do both well enough and that makes the FCC and licensed Amateurs happier.

 

There are times when I sift through a thread, and I'm no wiser.

I think about this. Is it me, or is there so much causal diffusion that a distillation is not possible, that the sieve of information has shutdown its ability to be sifted?

Are there strings of arguments so circular and hypothetical, that no real point can be made? The energy like something out Don Quixote?

That a grandstand has been made, passersby hailed and hawked, sucked into the circus tent of abyss?

Ah. I have arrived.

So it goes.

73 Tom W9YW

 

So what does a potential ham see when they visit this site?
Some help, some information, some contention, and some dissuasion.
What opinion do they form?
What do they see?

This topic has gone far beyond debating, and far beyond casually voicing opinion

How about we get back to PROMOTING amateur radio instead of chasing youths and interested people away.

 

Okay, how do we do that? I thought that's what we were discussing here. No doubt tangents were taken along the way but if we are going to know how to attract youths then it would be helpful to understand why they aren't interested already.

It's difficult to fix the problem if we can't even agree what the problem is in the first place. I did make a realization a long time ago when there's a debate like this, we don't have to agree on the problem if we can agree on the solution. Can we agree on a solution?

Part of the problem, and the point of the video, is the difficulty in measuring demographics and therefore any progress on demographic changes. I don't know how precise we need to measure that to know we are making progress. If we are to make progress on attracting younger people then we should probably have an idea what is attractive to them. If you have some insight on that then that would be quite helpful

 

It boils down to simple topics.
Why would any young want to use dinosaur technology unless it interests them?

Cost factor although a lot would disagree this an expensive hobby.

Disinformation.
The whole hobby has evolved into the cb radio attitude.
Ya gotta have that shiny no matter what the cost.
Or the latest overhyped and overpriced antenna.
Ya gotta have the monster truck tires cause it looks cool.

And attitude, many people are still butt hurt about the fcc dropping the cw requirements
Because they had to do it before.
But in evolving education it stopped being taught.
Like I've posted before my morse is rusty enough I couldn't have pasted the test if I tried.
And believe me I've had a hell of a time just getting a test scheduled because of the covid nightmare and evolving issues with getting a test done online.

Now if you think about it, there were 6 license classes before.
In order to simplify paperwork the fcc dropped to 3 license classes.
Getting people interested in this hobby is a lot more difficult due to the complexity of the hobby.
Above certain bandwidth a tech has a lot of privileges but the bandwidth in which you can use more power and have far more significant distance of signals without the use of repeaters is severely limited in the modes we can use.

Put all this together and think like a total noob with a limited or very moderate interest
And ask yourself this
Is it worth the cost.
And why should I bother.

Believe me there's a lot I agree with but much more that I don't
I believe it would be better suited to create a topic of suggestions to improve the hobby and attract people.
Otherwise we will lose our airways to commercial interests

 

There are reasons for that... You should think about those reasons. Think along the line of 'restricted' driver's license.

 

I have thought about it.
And all I'm saying is there is no perfect answers to this conundrum.
Our hobby is has been going down hill for decades.
Restructuring the license classes is adding another complication..
With evolving technology we are facing an ever growing hurdle with trying to keep interest in the hobby.

The hard part is having to look at things from both sides of the issues.
As one who has put aside interests for many years due to raising a family and concentrating on education and my career. I have seen the requirement for cw dropped
That made it much easier for me to enter this hobby.

With kids today you have to show them and let them experience the wonder of seeing a project work whether it's a kit or scratch project.
Actively promoting the hobby is a large order.
How many of us are actually actively involved in promoting the hobby?
Do you schedule demonstrations at local schools, scout camps?
I know our club does.
Any one can attend our monthly meetings and we welcome them.

Believe me though it's also damn hard not to be overly enthusiastic and end up pushing people away.

I'm not saying ease restrictions or lower boundaries for noobs,
But look at it from my eyes.
There is one hell of a lot of elitism in this hobby. ( even though many disagree on that).
Yeah a baofeng or a pixie is a crappy radio, but is anyone bothering to teach how to improve them? Teach how to build filters?
Very little! A lot of what I've seen is snarky answers (hit it with a big hammer and buy a real radio)!
That is not being an Elmer in any way shape or form.

Aside from 10 meter technician class has no voice/phone privileges on hf bands, ( I knew this well before i took the test)
but is the importance of that topic ever taught? I haven't seen it here or any other forum.
How many people here post links to the band plan charts?
Like I said there's no easy answer.
I could probably come up with one given some time to work at it, but at the present I'm working towards advancing my license class, building my gear, relearning morse, and general life.
So I'm kind of busy at the moment.

No if theres anything we have to change it's the attitude that's developed, and that's an ongoing and probably a never ending battle.

 

I gave up on trying to actively recruit people into Amateur radio a long time ago. A big problem is explaining what it is and why it is useful. People will ask me about radio communications and I learned to offer options in Part 95, Part 15, and so many other parts as appropriate. I have FRS, CB, and MURS radios to use when I need to talk to people that don't have an Amateur radio license. I would expect many Amateur radio operators to have radios that operate outside Amateur frequencies as well. I'll mention Amateur radio as it is appropriate for the problem posed to me, which is not often. I want people to come to me because I offer solutions that work for them, not drive them away because every solution I offer involves getting an Amateur radio license.

I'm seeing people claim that Amateur radio is losing value because there's so many other options for radio communications. I see the value in Amateur radio in creating people that know how a radio operates, knowledge that they can take to operate radios outside of Amateur radio. The value in Amateur radio is in creating people that know how radios work, a skill that can be applied universally to all radios.

I'm seeing too many people that appear to think we can't do more than one thing at a time. This means discouraging actions that may be productive in attracting people because someone else feels there is a "better" way. I pointed out before that we don't need to agree on the problem to agree on the solutions. I'll add that we don't need to agree on the solutions so long as those solutions are not contradictory.

The idea to petition the FCC for license changes is constantly shot down because it would take too long, or not fix all the problems, or some other nonsense. If one solution offered is to "encourage" people to upgrade beyond Technician then it would be compatible to also at the same time petition the FCC to grandfather Technician licenses and create something to replace it. If Technician is too limited to let people explore what Amateur radio has to offer then maybe we should "encourage" the FCC to not even have Technician as an option. I know someone is going to think this necessarily comes with "dumbing down" Amateur radio, but that is far from the case. If "dumbing down" Amateur radio concerns people then maybe we need to act on "smartening up", and if the "dumbing down" came from how licensing is done currently then I find it real hard to make a case to not petition the FCC for changes. I agree changes will take a long time to get in place but that only tells me we need to act sooner than later, not that we should not act at all.

We can "encourage" people to upgrade at the same time we communicate the need for changes to licensing to the FCC. I expect the FCC to propose changes of their own to Amateur radio, changes to address the complexity of the privileges so their burden on enforcement is lowered. We can get in front of this or only react to what the FCC chooses when they finally decide to act. There are a lot of issues that could be fixed with some changes to licensing. One being that of attracting the next generation of operators.

 

No one has a clue as to how many US hams there are.

I personally know at least 15 hams who have died in the last 10 years. All their licenses still show as active in the FCC database. Two of them died last year a few months after their last renewal.

I figure Im of an age where not much in ham radio is gonna change in the time I have left.

Most hams I know are older than me. Stop and think how many WWII veterans are left (most born in the 20s and 30s). Then think of all the hams from the "boomer years" that are in their 70s approaching 80. I dont think there will be enough new hams to even make up for the ones we lose.

Another major shift will be taking place in the world.

So I'm gonna enjoy my "non video game" CW as long as I can. After that I don't care what happens.

 

I think that's a bit of a stretch. The FCC database gives at least an order of magnitude idea on numbers, and for many things that is enough. Sales of radios gives another view on who is active, what interests them, and various demographic indicators. The ARRL does some polling of membership, don't they? That's a self selecting group and so may not be representative of the whole, but it gives a "clue".

I'll point out again that we don't have to agree on the problem to agree on the solutions. We don't even need complete agreement on the solutions, only that the actions taken on demographic issues are not contradictory.

I would find it more productive to discuss solutions than debate the problem. Changes to licensing will be necessary, the FCC is going to make changes eventually. Their "benign neglect" of Amateur radio is not likely to last forever. It would be wise to be prepared for when the FCC comes around looking for ways to change Amateur radio for the needs of today and the future.