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Weather & Sunspot Cycle 24. Heralding a New Maunder Minimum & Ice-Age?

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by GM4BRB, Aug 16, 2008.

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  1. GM4BRB

    GM4BRB Ham Member QRZ Page

    Sort forums search by 'View' to see this thread at #3 most viewed topic at QRZ.com forums, currently at 23K+ views.

    Following 'Hotly' or should we say 'Cooly' on the "Climate Change Fiasco" is the news that the the Sun may be entering a prolonged Sunspot Low period of inactivity. Solar scientists universally agree with the the evidence, that Our Sun may be entering the phase of another 'Maunder Minimum'. This would herald the onset of an 17th & 18th Century like mini Ice-Age. It is estimated that the last Maunder Minimum endured from 1645 to 1715.

    Following the end of the Sun's most active period in over 11,000 years, the last 10 years have displayed a clear cooling trend as temperatures post-1998 leveled out and are now plummeting.​
    Forecasts of a sharp cooling trend are backed by the UK's Armagh Observatory, which has been observing solar activity for over 200 years.

    The observatory notes that solar cycles 21 and 22, which were characterized by being short and intense in their activity, led to the natural global warming observed in the 80's and 90's.
    "Cycle 23, which hasn't finished yet, looks like it will be long (at least 12 to 13 years) and cycle 24, which has still to start, looks like it will be exceptionally weak," writes one observatory scientist.​

    "Based on the past Armagh measurements, this suggests that over the next two decades, global temperatures may fall by about 2 degrees C — that is, to a level lower than any we have seen in the last 100 years...."Temperatures have already fallen by about 0.5 degrees C over the past 12 months and, if this is only the start of it, it would be a serious concern," concludes David Watt.
    Belfast Telegraph, 14 Aug.​

    China recently experienced its coldest winter in 100 years while northeast America was hit by record snow levels and Britain suffered its coldest April in decades as late-blooming daffodils were pounded with hail and snow on an almost daily basis. The British summer has also left many yearning for global warming, with temperatures in June and July rarely struggling to get over 16 degrees and on one occasion even dropping as low as 9 degrees in the middle of the afternoon.​

    "Summer heat continues in short supply, continuing a trend that has dominated much of the 21st Century's opening decade," reports the Chicago Tribune. "There have been only 162 days 90 degrees or warmer at Midway Airport over the period from 2000 to 2008. That's by far the fewest 90-degree temperatures in the opening nine years of any decade on record here since 1930."
    The reason? Sunspot activity has dwindled. There have only been a handful of days in the past two months where any sunspot activity has been observed and over 400 spotless days have been recorded in the current solar cycle.
    "The sun’s surface has been fairly blank for the last couple of years, and that has some worried that it may be entering another Maunder minimum, the sun’s 50-year abstinence from sunspots, which some scientists have linked to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century," reports one science blog.​

    Magnetic imaging of Sunspot Activity for 7 Aug 2008
    [​IMG]

    Magnetic imaging of Sunspot Activity for 10 Aug 2005
    [​IMG]


    Such predictions are of course of little interest to a global PR machine that butters its bread on attributing every weather event, be it droughts, floods, volcanoes or earthquakes, to man-made global warming. But look at the Weather in your Neighbourhood over the last half-decade. Argue that Northern climate change is due to the moving of the 30,000 ft high North-Atlantic Jet Stream to near Scandinavian Latitudes if you will but the Solar evidence appears resolute. The Sun is Cooling off.​
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2010
  2. NF0A

    NF0A Ham Member QRZ Page

    So much for Global warming which I knew was garbage!

    Also, atmospheres of planets in our Solar Sytems have shown a cooling trend... Green house effect is Gore`s idea to make money for himself and cronies! LOL!:p
     
  3. KC0UJC

    KC0UJC XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    ...pertaining to Amateur radio

    And with all that said......
    This means the bands are gonna be el stinko!
     
  4. NN4RH

    NN4RH Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Didn't we have this thread a month or so ago? It's like deja vu all over again.
     
  5. K0EWS

    K0EWS Ham Member QRZ Page

    Interesting. I guess it would be plausable, yet, how come after the very intense cycle 19, which was stronger than 21 or 22, this warming wasn't occuring then? The global temsp actully cooled during that period. I'm not a climatologist, but could it be that the Earth just gets warmer and cooler over the years because that is what it does?

    We are still in the very normal range of a solar minimum, and we had a double peak on Cycle 23, so there very well could be a double minimum on this cycle as well. If the solar numbers are still looking like they are now in 4 years, I'll buy some of the argument. By the way, the record solar cycle 19 was directly preceded by a minimum that lasted this long too. The cycle that followed it was the highest ever recorded.

    There could be merit in some of this, but it's too soon to tell. In the meantime, it's alarmism.
     
  6. W2KG

    W2KG Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    What!?! Common sense!!??


    Good grief, man, you're going to spoil the whole thing!!!! :p
     
  7. K1VSK

    K1VSK Ham Member QRZ Page

    Contrast the hypothesis that global cooling either exists or if it does, is a result of decreased solar radiation (which in and of itself is fundamantally false) and the empirical data clearly showing the extraordinary rise in greenhouse gases and their direct, uneqiuivocal impact on increasing global temp and the only objective conclusion is to stop denying the obvious.

    Sometimes it seems as though some folks deny the obvious just to hear themselves appear to sound knowledgeable.
     
  8. NF0A

    NF0A Ham Member QRZ Page

    And with that, a whole lot OF NOTHING was said below

    :D
    Frankjly, big deal as you as well as I/ everyone else can`t prove anything either as scientists usually 98% educated guesses 1 % soso and rest maybe and most likely wrong anyway;)... Join the club...
     
  9. NF0A

    NF0A Ham Member QRZ Page

    i LearNed myGRamMer frome GOre with his OwN efFlux of HOT AIR!

    This is so fun to see Yankees toot horn here!LOL!
    73 to all..:D
     
  10. NF0A

    NF0A Ham Member QRZ Page

    Still is STINKO!

    `Nuff said.
     
  11. G8ADD

    G8ADD Ham Member QRZ Page

    Well said.

    It puzzles me that purveyers of this denialist tripe are happy to quote speculative reconstructions of the last 11,000 years of solar activity as if they are gospel truth yet reject solid observational evidence of warming temperatures and melting glaciers as some sort of scam. What makes this all the more pathetic is that the writer then goes on about the weather, as if he has no concept of the difference between weather and climate! I saw no signs of this so-called daily pounding of "late-blooming" daffodils with hail and snow, but what I did see was daffodils blooming as early as January, and varieties that would normally bloom in April were in bloom in February. The daffodils know something that this OM has failed to notice. The Spring is earlier than it used to be, and getting earlier each year. No doubt in his eagerness to spread his brand of wishful thinking he has interpreted this as evidence of Global Cooling!

    Right now the solar minimum is well within the normal range of variability. Tell me about Maunder Minima when it is well without the normal range of variability.

    73

    Brian G8ADD
     
  12. GM4BRB

    GM4BRB Ham Member QRZ Page

    Nothing to do with Global Warming this Solar cycle #24.

    Not as far as I am aware OM. I have been away, but I have tried to focus on the possible 'failings' of Sunspot Cycle no 24 which is only just now hitting the Press as a possible source of not only poor wx for the average punter but of possible 'downer' propagation cndx for the amateur radio fraternity too.

    Yours & 73,
    Gram, GM4BRB
     
  13. GM4BRB

    GM4BRB Ham Member QRZ Page

    Soon it's going to get dark, really!

    However, this of course was never intended by me at any point to be a debate particularly about The Great Climate Change Swindle. The post is about Solar Cycle 24's late appearance, the extended previous cycle(s) and, yes allegations of wx & radio propagation effects thus connected.
    The other 'intellectual property type debate' has been settled between OfCom and Channel 4, I understand.

    That said, the wx in GM where I live has been consistently poor and gets worse each year since around 2003, but this year's summer is unbelievable. But yes, each year is literally worse. It is raining most of the time now in Hi-Summer & the skies have been dark and overcast for as long as I can remember now. We have had about 7 Sunny days this year, whereas last year about 14. In 2003/4 there were weeks of Sunshine.

    "Soon it's going to get dark, really!" were the words of Thom Yorke of Radiohead as he looked skyward through Summer Rain at my Glasgow gig on June 27 this year. But the scary warnings of a CO² fixated Rock Star are of no use in separating fact from fiction.

    I think it's better to be properly forewarned than left in the dark as to what may be the mechanism behind our appalling wx and deteriorating propagation cndx.
    I think the big wait to see what is coming has begun, but will the ‘Big Chill’ or mini Ice Age be the conclusion of our patience? We must use our technology to be adequately forewarned of potential catastrophe.

    Just to show that I will try and respect QRZ forum's mods as to political content, this post is not a political one, but is trying to be oriented to as purely an amateur radio direct interest as pissible.
    73,
    Gram.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2008
  14. W4KVW

    W4KVW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Prop Forcast?

    Just like the weather,just ANOTHER "GUESS" & if everyone keeps guessing someone will LUCK UP & get it RIGHT!ALL of the so called "EXPERTS" have been WRONG on the new cycle so EVERYONE else should post their guess & be just as close as they were or were not.My guess is it will happen when it's time for it to happen & NOT until then & I'll BET that I'm RIGHT & I'm NOT a so called EXPERT.Like trying to guess the date & time you will DIE you just don't know for sure!Global warming is a NATURAL occurance just because that "BOZO" Al Gore says it's not while he drives around in a LARGE "SUV"! hahahahahaha

    Clayton
    W4KVW:D
     
  15. VE1IDX

    VE1IDX Ham Member QRZ Page

    People can't seem to understand the differance between climate change and weather change. Even the scientists that believe in global warming have said that some areas of the world will actually see a cooling effect while the world as a whole will see an average increase in temperature.The summer here has been somewhat cooler and wetter than most in the past but at the same time the high arctic has seen vast amounts of sea ice disappear far earlier than ever thought was possible.People I work with are complaining all the time about the cooler than average summer this year and cursing the global warming theory. To that I tell them they should go to the high arctic if they don't believe something is warming up.Even mountains in tropical areas such as Mount Kilimanjaro that have had snow and ice for thousands of years are losing it. When I see the ice and snow start to increase I'll believe the earth is cooling but until then I still think it is warming up on the whole. We get faaaar less snow and far warmer temperatures in the winter now than we did even 30-40 years ago when I was just a little kid.
     
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