Just an FYI I'm now posting my "daily" solar, space and geomagnetic weather observations, discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts at http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather . This below is what I post. For my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe: Feel free without advanced permission to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and geomagnetic weather observation, discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it. Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm (((((NOTE! I'm now only posting my daily solar, space & geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts at http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather . It's a NO SPAM "opt" in email type list or group, so you have to sign up by creating a using an email address and password.))))) I'm also posting some of my daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather observations, discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts in my Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm . Of course it will consist of little snippets of what's going on as Twitter severely limits a tweet as far as content length. Last but not least I have permanently shut down my Facebook web page because of their censorship of the most basic pro America content. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #67 Issued on Tuesday March 21, 2017 at 1430 UTC Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast HF radio wave propagation conditions are fair on 17-80 (15-75) meters and poor on 12-10 (11) meters. HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS: NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION- 80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day, 40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day, 20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day, 15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at day, 12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day. SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION- 80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day, 40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day, 20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day, 15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at day, 12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day. Received RF signal strength scale- Very Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater Good- S7-9 Fair- S4-6 Poor- S1-3 Very Poor- S0 Meter Band Equivalents Ham & SWL 160-> 90 80-> 75 60-> 60 40-> 49, 41 30-> 31, 25 20-> 22, 19 17-> 16, 15 15-> 13 12,10-> 11 Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the average radio enthusiast. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during the summer and winter solstices. Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency (FoF2). The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak. Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and mostly bad. Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative manner. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On Monday March 20, 2017- Solar activity was low. Earth's geomagnetic field was very quiet. The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 72.4 72.7 72.2 The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 0. This is the 15th day in a row with the big goose egg. However that streak may end on Wednesday March 22, 2017. In 2017 officially there were 27 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years, +/- one year, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early. There were no earth facing sunspot groups. However an unofficial newly risen across the east limb of the sun sunspot group is located near N08E83. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early. As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24 and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase. Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the big goose egg. In 2008 I fore casted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years and that forecast verified. I also fore casted that solar cycle 25 would be virtually non existent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred. No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions occurred. The twenty four hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at quiet geomagnetic conditions of 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. You can’t get more quiet than that. The Kp geomagnetic indices are- 0-2- quiet 3- unsettled 4- active 5- minor geomagnetic storming 6- moderate 7- strong 8- severe 9- extreme 10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead. The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between 2 and 0, which was at quiet geomagnetic conditions. The Ap geomagnetic indices are- 0-7- quiet 8-15 unsettled 16-29- active 30-49- minor geomagnetic storm 50-99- major 100-400- severe >401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead. The daily averaged background x-ray flux was A1.9. The daily averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field was +1.16 nT north. The maximum and minimum Dst ranged between -9 and +4. The maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 346 and 287 km/s. There was a very large recurrent transequatorial (geoeffective) directly earth facing (CH) coronal hole #797 (#771). During it's last passage on the earth facing side of the sun it impacted earth's geomagnetic field in a negative manner. It should begin impacting earth’s magnetic field on Tuesday March 21, 2017. There was a recently risen across the east limb of the sun recurrent transequatorial earth facing (CH) coronal hole #798 (#792). During it's last passage on the earth facing side of the sun it impacted earth's geomagnetic field in a negative manner. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible. Something that happens rarely. 1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best. 2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best. 3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0). 7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best. 11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals. 12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0). 14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine). However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM. Feel free to redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it. Also solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
