Trials and Errors #64: The New Hams -- Shot Across the Bow for ICOM, Yaesu and Others!

Referring to WY6K's comment, I think that the majority of people have never heard of Amateur radio or if they have, have no idea what it is about.

As the majority of us carry-out our hobby at home, then this is not really visible to the outside world.

This is where POTA/SOTA etc. can be benificial to the hobby - you can come into contact with non-Hams and explain what you are doing. Last weekend I was in England at a popular park with my FX-4CR on a park bench and my 1/4 wave telescopic antenna a couple of metres aways from me. A group came to the banch to have a rest and one of them asked what I was doing, so I explained it to him. I am not assuming that he will join the hobby after our short conversation, but at least he (and the people was with) now know about the hobby.

 

No, Martin headed a company. He did not carry out exclusively the basic activities such as innovation, sales, marketing, inventory, and so on, at least not after the mid 70's.

The point is that ham radio is percieved as a dying market commercially. It had nothing to do with Martin, it had everything to do with perceived future market, which is why no one picked up MFJ.

Targeting ICOM, Yaesu, JVC, and so on is off the mark-- any and all of these manu's could decide to stop ham radio manufacturing at any time, and as sunspots die and FT8 controls our interest, you most certainly will see at least one of them stop in the next two years.

Given the low operational costs in PRC, you will see a new --major-- player emerge from China in the next year. Eager to modify their boxes for ham use at no extra cost to them, as they are SDR radios. IOW, gravy with no risk to them.

 

I agree with you Chip that amateur radio is perceived as a dying market, commercially. But there are still companies out there with cash and who wish to grow. Some actually make money in our business . . . I know that one major vendor was interested in MFJ, but the discussion fell apart. My guess is that it wasn't because "ham radio is a dying market" but because of the difficulty of transitioning the processes and controls of MFJ to a modern market. That company had the money and the will, but upon looking closer may have discovered that there were inherent culture issues that would have been super costly to de-bug. I guess we shouldn't argue this point any further, as my guess is we won't know until Martin writes a biography. Most likely, the deals in discussion had non-disclosures attached.

It is NOT off the mark to "target ICOM" and others. Hey, I love my ICOM gear. Just like I love and enjoy certain musicians or old films. But if they'd continue to pop out old B&W movies with the same themes we'd be in sad shape for that kind of entertainment. ICOM is not keeping up with the times. The "times" have so much more to offer us than what they put in their boxes . . . one way to get a handle on the "times" is to look at the activities of the young up-and-comers working in the open innovation space. While I agree with you, and so would my Polish friend, that open source is not the end-all, it's a good window to look through to see what kind of true innovation is out there. Being able to plug my monitor into a radio and see it on a larger screen just doesn't get me all THAT excited. Dave, W7DGJ

 

This I'd like to see. They've tried it before, with several companies attempting to produce the WOLF Radio (an SDR with tons of bells and whistles) and their attempts were pathetic. Just terrible, and that story is told here. They have everything they need to do it right and market it at a fair price and actually grab some serious market share. Whether they will make a serious attempt at it (quality control, manufacturing methods, build quality) and match what the big 3 can do, I somehow doubt. I also think they'd need to do so with a multi-cultural team, which few Chinese companies have done successfully . . . Euro or American marketers, Western Quality Assurance execs, etc Dave, W7DGJ

 

Well,

The hams who do defense work know where these radios are being used. That's the market. And those folks got those radio placed in that market based on their related use in ham radio.

Almost all transceivers in coming years will be SDR black boxes with occasional update 'firmware/software'. Those innovation updates will come from third party vendors who will do their coding using AI either as assist or in toto. IOW no one needs an R and D group inside a major transceiver company. There is no need for these transciever companies--themselves-- to be 'innovative'; they can have their ears to the ground and see what people want and get it coded in, cheaply, by third parties. And open source will likely be limited because those third party coders will want to get paid.

As to PRC. I won't comment. My opinions have been registered many times on the Zed.

 

I need to quibble with the bolded - it had already fallen apart. There was practically no "quality" there for many years before MFJ shutting down.

That business model of using super low paid, minimally skilled people building those products that were being built here in the US was growing ever more costly, and it showed.

 

In reality, you're agreeing with me Duane. I believe they had quality control systems, but that they were antiquated, and consisted mainly of a checklist for those minimally paid workers to look at as they put things together or packed boxes. THAT business model could easily have been one of the main reasons why it was not picked up by another company, and not (as stated here by another poster) because the ham market is impossible to make money in. Dave, W7DGJ

 

It will be interesting to watch how willing the incumbent amateur radio masses will be to actually adopt any such new radio line in the 100W HF/6M market space from the PRC. Brand loyalty to the big 3 runs REALLY deep, as does rigid operational practices and modes that are rooted in how they first learned amateur radio many decades ago.

I have pondered the notion of AI writing code for SDR's myself at times over the last few years. It would seem that there is some huge potential there for people being eventually able to just describe how they want their radio to work, and AI then generating the software to support it.

 

My understanding is that the price Martin was seeking for it, and the other conditions attached to it is what kept any potential sales deal from being reached. Seems to me that for MFJ to continue being profitable into the future it would require a dramatic reduction in the number of individual line items being made and sold, many of which were close duplicates of each other anyhow. And to massively overhaul the manufacturing processes to achieve higher quality.

 

There are already HF radios from China, Xiegu for example. I think they sell fairly well.

I also see no evidence that Yaesu or Icom fail to make money on the amateur market. Quite on the contrary, the IC7300 sold 100000 copies in 8 years: https://www.icomjapan.com/news/4088/

 

How many did they sell last year, when the revenues were 18% ham radio? What were the margins?

COVID era was a one shot.Including it is misleading as an indicator of the present and future.

 

Martin reduced the cost of SKU management as he made acquisitions. He had a distribution machine that worked. Little black boxes that do various things, sell.

Taming a supply chain is half math and half artistry. Pleasing hams.... he did that well. He amalgamated a lot of niche products effectively. Most were wickedly simple but needed items. And his business side handled the sales/service cycle well.

These same items are still in demand, and so long as the standard is a PL-259 connected to something at 50ohms impedance, the widgets will enable hams to do various ham things as a hobby. In the commercial world, things are different as the focus is different.

73 Tom W9YW

 

I just read Dave’s article, and my first post to this topic with my two cents.

Briefly reading through many of the comments here, IMO it has reached paralysis from analysis. There’s no question that evolving technology has given rise to a new breed of hams that I refer to as the ‘Compu-Ham’…those migrating away from the traditional hams that ragchew, contest, DX, chase awards, etc. Developing/innovating new modes of operation, and ways to do them, but still within the definition of ham radio…communication over distances using wireless RF. With the diversity of personal interests that our hobby provides, there’s plenty of room for the Compu-Ham and traditional appliance operators to coexist.

Regarding the current manufacturers of amateur radio equipment, they’ll do what they, and any company, have always done…develop and produce products that they believe will successfully sell to make money and turn a profit. That’s it…the competition between these companies provide us with many choices to fit our needs. They will continue to evolve and change with technology as long as the market is there to support them. If/when sales/profits dry up, they will turn their interests elsewhere, as has happened with many companies in the past. Most recently SteppIR antennas.

What the future will bring for ham radio is anyone’s guess. For now, just ride with it and enjoy the part of the hobby you enjoy.

73, Bob K7JQ

 

Nice comments Bob, well considered. Dave, W7DGJ

 

Me neither. But adding that feature to a radio is called 'selling the sizzle'. A major part of successful marketing with any product. Something that has nothing to do with the operation/utility of the radio...just looks pretty and actually redundant to what's already on the front of a self-contained radio. Flex does it best on their 'M' models. If you don't have mouse control over certain limited screen features, you still have to use the touch screen on the radio.

People love the 'sizzle", hams love the display on that huge LED monitor to impress visitors. And IMO will be a major factor in the success of the upcoming IC-7300 MKII. Plus, it's HDMI for better resolution...oooh/aaah!