Trials and Errors #61: The Carrington Event and the "What If's" of our Sun's Activities

This is the discussion forum for our column on sunspots, solar storms and the Carrington Event of 1859. Join us here for a discussion of this event or to discuss the "hype or no hype" nature of Cycle 25. The article can be found at this link. Thanks for being here! Your author, Dave Jensen W7DGJ.

 

One thing to note is that the Earth's geomagnetic field is now far weaker than in the late 1800s.

Fast forward to today and there are auroral displays at lower latitudes, even with so-called 'minor' solar activity.

Homepage | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center is a good spot place to start in your learning process to know more about .... space weather.

There is nothing we can do about space weather other than to be ready to survive the coming storms...

 

Thanks Don. Do you recall the training we had as kids (I think you and I are about the same age). That was, if there's a nuclear attack on the way, to get under the desk at school and pull up your knees and put your head between your legs. Wow. That was a really solid piece of advice, and I'm sure it would have been very beneficial if such an event had occurred. We haven't had such training for a massive solar storm, but I'll bet it would fall into the same category of training. Dave, W7DGJ

 

Dave, good research. Surprised you didn't mention Quebec 1989, massive electric grid outage.

(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm)

 

Thanks Cliff. Yes, I saw this youtube about it, but decided that I had given enough examples. It affected MILLIONS of people -- thanks for the reminder. Dave, W7DGJ https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4-IxwK_tCZg

 

And kiss your _________________!!!

We had to go out in the corridor, crouch facing the walls, head down, hands covering our heads. Like it would have done any good! There were floor to ceiling windows in the classrooms. I guess the figured the relatively closed corridors would be safer.

BTW Dave, I believe the NorthEast Blackout was Nov 9, 1965, not 1967.
Oh... wait... yer right, there WAS one in 1967 too!
Now I'm not sure the '65 event had a flare at cause... I'll axe Mrs. Google.
Yeah, NO... that event was a relay tripping in Canada causing a ripple effect along the grid.

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Hey Jeff . . . what would today's non-sensical advice be for surviving in a huge solar storm? I wonder . . . As an aside, how in the world did such advice (which we all went through in school) have EVER been considered smart enough to have run through an entire nation's school system????? Dave W7DGJ

 

Stock up on aluminum foil, and wrap all your equipment in it. Don't forget your head... and... ummm... your 'equipment'!

I guess they figured that something, anything, was better than nothing? and it seems they were mainly worried about flying projectiles. I remember them showing Civil Defense films about bomb shelters and such.

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I was in the 60s as a ham in some Civil Defense group that trained at a fire station in Minneapolis to go to air raid shelters which were more for radiation and blast protection as I recall. We were issued radiation monitors and had drills.

I assume the school house duck under desk etc was as noted only for flying projectiles.

 

There is also cosmic radiation risk. That includes air travel on Polar routes and I understand some pilots carry radiation monitors. The FAA points out that radiation modeling plays a crucial role in determining the dose rates experienced by flight crew and passengers.

As ham and known "Space Weather Women" Tamitha Skov does weekly radiation (D) forecasts for flight crews about I think its 35k feet and pregnant passengers or crew.

She also has pointed out human moon travel can be very dangerous and the first crew on the Moon was very lucky in that they just missed a big radiation storm which could have been fatal. We need radiation storm considerations before the next manned flight.

I believe the lesser magnetic field increases the risk of solar radiation since provides less protection.

She also points out that one must be careful not to conflate the rating of solar flare intensity (e.g. C-class, M-class, X-class) with the rating of geomagnetic storm intensity (e.g. G1 up to G5) because they are measures of entirely different phenomena. The intensity of a solar flare does not automatically equate to a large geomagnetic storm. In fact, many X-class flares are not associated with geomagnetic storms at all!

Also the radiation issue may be separate from these other events.

The FAA has issued an extensive space weather update of as of January 2025
https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/programs/weather/awrp/space-weather

Also FAA Advisory Circular 120-61B, In-flight Radiation Exposure, provides basic background information and links to more detailed information. Air carriers are responsible for developing their safety and measurement procedures to inform and protect crewmembers from in-flight ionizing radiation exposure.

 

I suspect a Carrington event tomorrow morning would be a pretty massive problem but I like to see the bright side of life, so there will be positive effects.

• Schools' physics department teachers would have a great time, as would their art teachers
• Photographers would be positively charged with enthusiasm as they snapped the sky
• Alarm clocks might well blow up, or at least stop working, so many would have a longer than usual sleep
• Your boss won't be able to call you in the evening to ask you to finish a report
• Since your computer will probably die like a norwegian blue parrot, the boss can't moan if the report isn't finished
• Hams with portable QRP radios in boxes will be very happy as all the QRO base stations will have gone bang
• Doom and gloom, end of the world, religious extremists will be very happy
• Your wife won't be able to call you, so you can stay in the bar with your mates for a while longer than usual, then claim your smartwatch told you the wrong time

It's possible that nuclear power stations might very well blow up as control over the reacion is lost, but you can't have everything, can you?

 

LOL
I grew up in Tucson, AZ.

Major SAC base (B-36s and then B-52s) surrounded by ICBM sites.

\We would never see it coming....just a flash and then you are talking to Deity.

I'd written a book on what might happen to the Earth during a solar Superflare. So well researched, it had poor sales. The reader feedback - too scary.

 

Thanks Dave. Super interesting comments, notably on air travel and space travel. Dave, W7DGJ

 

Thanks Ed, got a laugh out of this one. Yes, you are a positive thinker for sure. But one serious and good point is your comment above about hams with go-boxes -- they will be popular people. Mine has QRP radios, but the guy with an IC7300 or equivalent in his go-box will be like the full 1.5 kw operator with the huge tower, Dave W7DGJ

 

I have pondered this question several different times over the years. And then reading the accounts of the problems encountered with telegraph lines and railroad tracks, which were the only two significant long distance conductive / electrically connected systems at the time. And plus considering that there was negligible electrically conductive paths within households at that time either.

So, I have concluded that the overall strategy would be to isolate and break up all electrically conductive paths wherever possible. So it would basically take the form of opening up any and all circuits that would look like (part of) a transformer coil to a changing magnetic field. Keep in mind that these "coils" could be many miles big. It is that changing magnetic field that induces current into things.

So this isolation would include opening all the circuit breakers in the main service panel that you possibly can at a minimum. And depending, perhaps even the main circuit breaker if the event is progressing in a sufficiently intense way. Also unplug everything possible from all wall outlets, and for the cords that are detachable from the device, like computers for example, unplug both ends of the power cord. Same for "wall warts". And disconnect things like speaker wires from the stereo system at both ends, let those wires be un-terminated at both ends. Same for all copper Ethernet cables (both ends), antenna feedlines and coaxes etc, etc. And also all the interconnections between different pieces of gear on the radio desk, all of them. And if I still had POTS phone service, I'd open the connection at the NID, those on copper CATV would be wise to do the equivalent.

And in my case I would turn off the gas valve on the propane tank. Or at least monitor and assess that as the event is occurring should it be winter.

While I don't believe that we'd be taken back to the stone age, there will be some lengthy and widespread power outages. My already present generator (which would be isolated when such an event would be occurring) will be a great thing to have after it has passed. However from what I have read the lessons learned from the 1989 event have been melded into utilities thinking and preparations for such an event. Now whether they have done so to the level that would be truly required is open for some debate.

I haven't seen anything to suggest that the induced currents in 1859 were accompanied by very high voltages, so I believe that isolation measures as described above are practical things to do. Unlike lightning where isolation has pretty limited benefit, a Carrington like event I think it would be very helpful.

Since this kind of event would have some decent period of warning ahead of time, there would be time to do all of those items above within your own home etc.