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The RF-Seismograph measures massive radio blackout during California earthquakes

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by VE7DXW, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. VU2DK

    VU2DK Ham Member QRZ Page

    For a number of years now--I have observed a very peculiar & sometimes frightening band noise---soon after, if you check the news you find an earthquake taken place somewhere in the world, no matter how small or big on the Richter scale--its happened all the time & needs more observing to make sure its just not a coincidence !
     
    VE7DXW likes this.
  2. W4HM

    W4HM XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Where are the x-rays and protons causing the radio black out coming from? Are they coming from the fault line?

    We are talking about D layer absorption increasing. Lower RF frequencies are effected first and the absorption works upwards in frequency depending on the strength of the x-rays and protons.
     
    VE7DXW likes this.
  3. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

  4. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    This is exactly what we found, here are our reseach papers:
    Access to Study for 2017, 2018 (2019 is part of 2018)
    http://www3.telus.net/public/bc237/MDSR/Matches-RF-Seismograph and Seismic data for 2017.pdf
    http://www3.telus.net/public/bc237/MDSR/Earthquakes visible with RF-Seismograph 2018.pdf
     
  5. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Earthquakes are not energetic enough to create X-rays but they do create field lines that change or bend the the ionosphere. In the process existing radio path get disrupted or new ones are created.
    This is what the RF-Seismograph measures...
    A
     
  6. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    I think this is false, unless you can show reference to a peer reviewed paper in a reputable journal on geophysics or related field showing with data and theory that earthquakes “create field lines that change or bend the ionosphere” strong enough to disrupt radio paths.

    As I previously posted, measured magnetic field strengths at the surface near earthquakes are on the order of less than 1/100000 of the earth’s natural field, and the USGS has said that despite decades of research there is no reliable electromagnetic precursor to earthquakes.
     
    KA0HCP likes this.
  7. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Read this:
    Sergey Pulinets, Kirill Boyarchuk, Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes, ISBN 3-540-20839-9 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York

    A
     
  8. AG6QR

    AG6QR Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Well, with about 500,000 detectable earthquakes per year, pretty much everything is fairly closely preceeded and followed by an earthquake.

    Of course there aren't that many that make the news, but many of those that can be felt make the news at least locally, and there are an estimated 100,000 per year that can be felt. There are only about a hundred damaging quakes per year, but that's still around two per week.

    So yes, more analysis is needed to determine whether it is statistically significant.

    source of stats: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/facts.php
     
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  9. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    How about YOU read it and quote the relevant data and conclusions within which support your hypothesis of 80m noise precursors to earthquakes.

    BTW that’s quite a dated book, from 15 years ago.
     
    KA0HCP likes this.
  10. K4MJA

    K4MJA XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    it is called seismo-electomagnetics; see for instance this wikipedia article:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismo-electromagnetics
    Eyeballing the curves seems to be a preferred way of research in the area, for ex:link

    I am not completely unfamiliar with the method: as a young scientist, I use to work in the area of geophysics in the 8os in Soviet Russia and there they where...the curves...the peaks and the valleys...back then a friend of mine told me that there are 2 types of research in USSR: conscious pseudo-science and unconscious pseudo-science.
     
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  11. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    Total Electron Content of the ionosphere has been studied in relation to earthquakes for many years and there is also a lot of satellite data available from GPS signal delay effects. From my very brief perusal of the literature, this seems to be the main focus of research on ionospheric effects from earthquakes and possible precursors. It seems to me that many papers have been published with post hoc analysis showing supposed effects in TEC and hypothetical mechanisms by which TEC might be affected by earthquakes, but few with good statistics. ( HF propagation in general is related to TEC/ion density).

    However, here is a fairly recent paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, supported by USGS, doing statistical analysis on a long record of M=>6 earthquakes and TEC measurements. They don’t find any precursor relationship, nor much of a co-relationship to the earthquake itself.

    It’s instructive to read the abstract, introduction, and conclusion even if you don’t read the rest. The paper is open access.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016JA023652
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2019
    KA0HCP likes this.
  12. KJ6CA

    KJ6CA Ham Member QRZ Page

    Beats me.
     
  13. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    Here’s the abstract of the paper (emphasis mine):

    “There are many reports on the occurrence of anomalous changes in the ionosphere prior to large earthquakes. However, whether or not these changes are reliable precursors that could be useful for earthquake prediction is controversial within the scientific community. To test a possible statistical relationship between ionospheric disturbances and earthquakes, we compare changes in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere with occurrences of M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes globally for 2000–2014. We use TEC data from the global ionosphere map (GIM) and an earthquake list declustered for aftershocks. For each earthquake, we look for anomalous changes in GIM-TEC within 2.5° latitude and 5.0° longitude of the earthquake location (the spatial resolution of GIM-TEC). Our analysis has not found any statistically significant changes in GIM-TEC prior to earthquakes. Thus, we have found no evidence that would suggest that monitoring changes in GIM-TEC might be useful for predicting earthquakes.”
     
    KA0HCP likes this.
  14. K6MFW

    K6MFW Ham Member QRZ Page

    I didn't know the MF cafeteria had waitresses, or was that the Navy Officers Club? Anyway I sure enjoy some of the "theories of earthquake predictions" people have been posting.

    All kidding aside, so far the best predictions it seems are sensor systems that give few seconds warning. Problem is how best to alert the general public. There are also systems that detect the high frequency "p-waves" (or something like that) and can give up to 30 or so seconds of warning. Obviously there are problems of false alarms that can lead to alarm fatigue.

    There are some interesting things that happen before earthquakes. A friend said the day before the Loma Prieta earthquake her koi fish were acting strange which animal behavior can be an indicator. But getting a reliable indicator is an issue, i.e. the dog barking situation. Difficult research for sure but I think more valuable than missile alert systems (alerting Hawaii of a pending ICBM strike from North Korea is useless).
     
    K7GYB and N0TZU like this.
  15. WN1MB

    WN1MB Ham Member QRZ Page

    Did your friend happen to feed the koi fish any chicken 'round that time?
     

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