The Future of Ham Radio

The Dayton Hamvention 2013 is now over, an exciting , fun,eyeball extravaganza enjoyed in good weather and no hitches. There was only oneproblem: few people showed up, and those that came left early. A quick scan ofHara (and the parking lot) confirms that attendance was way down, perhaps asmuch as 40-50% from top numbers<o></o>
What happened?<o></o>
The answer was obvious if you scan heads: a sea of gray andskin overwhelmed the view. We are old (as least as active hams). That will comeas no revelation to anyone, but the implications to us, as hams (at least inthe US) is profound in ways we may not have thought about, and this will leadto quick changes that may prove unexpected and even kill off many of the attributesof the amateur radio service we’ve learned to assume and love over decades.Here I highlight the effects on several aspects which will inevitably happenover the next 5 years. This is ‘news’ that can motivate us to prepare and correctthe consequences.<o></o>
<o> </o>1) MEMBERSHIP COLLAPSE. More than a decade ago, we were all abuzzabout the coming rise of retiring hams--many off the air for decades-- lookingto renew their active status in the world’s first and original ‘social network’.We are now slightly past the top of that phenomenon, and if you look at yourlocal clubs, on the air groups, and even the ARRL, you see this in a very bigway. Control and contributions are dominated by those over 60, and even 70. This,unfortunately, has the effect of biasing actions to serve the needs of thegrowing ‘experienced’ membership, which in turn alienates those in youngerdemographics. It is also unfortunate that the hand of time cannot be stopped,and the participation of those experienced hams will fall off quickly anddramatically, mostly from health, logistics, and mortality reasons. This bodespoorly for clubs, who in the next 5 years will see a dire collapse ofleadership and membership.<o></o>
2) ON THE AIR COLLAPSE. Contest operation (at HF) isway up, and so are the old hams doing so. They are sharp, and having a greattime! Unfortunately the same factors that affect club membership will taketheir toll on OTA activities. Aging hams will either be unable or logisticallyhampered in operations on HF, and at least in the US, you will see a collapse inthe number of U.S. stations in contests. Ironically, a temporary solution isalready being experienced: multi operator contest stations. They will continueto grow, but expect that for every multiop station the single ops will decline by a huge margin. Off contests, the HF bandswill often be mostly dead of U.S. signals,despite times of good band conditions.<o></o>
3) USED HAM MARKET COLLAPSE. This is happening now.In fact, the used market is dominated by the ‘experienced’ hams. But as theyage, they buy less and they or their estates sell more. Don’t be surprised tosee gear that has gone up in price catastrophically collapse to 30-50 cents onthe dollar in the next few years.<o></o>
4) NEW HAM MARKET COLLAPSE. As the used market becomesbargain rich, the pressure to buy new will also collapse. The implication isfar fewer companies serving us with even fewer offerings.<o></o>
It is not my intention to spread panic nor bad thoughts, butrecognizing how the hand of time has affected us lets us prepare, choose, andeven alter. How can we change and guide the amateur radio servicefor a healthy future?<o></o>
<o> </o>

 

Just so everyone knows, this was edited (or squashed by a translating computer (not person) editor), and in particular, the run-in paragraphs, word run-ons, run-on sentences, and ">>'s" were NOT what I submitted. I spent some time getting this just right.

What you are seeing is not it.

In any case, I do hope we can get past that and concentrate on the issues, which are our aging service--and what we can do moving forward. Note that I very much am one of the 'old persons' discussed here.

73,
Chip W1YW

 

The interest in ham radio was there back when I was a kid, but I never got around to pursuing it. Last winter at the ripe age of 59, I finally came back and investigated ham radio again. What you state here about the US ham radio community matches exactly the first thing I noticed about it. It is dominated by a bunch of old guys with almost no "kids" anywhere in sight. To anyone from "outside" the hobby, it's even more glaring to them. I made this same observation about the US ham community to my daughter some months ago and her comment was "geeze Dad, what did you expect?". She continued with "we (meaning her generation) have phones."

Just recently I made another observation while I was researching radios. I will read short written reviews. But, regardless of the product or type of product, if I am given the opportunity to listen and watch a youtube video of someone doing the review, I will take the youtube clip over the 3 pages of text and a couple of pictures. What surprised me about the youtube video reviews and presentations of the various radio models was, most if not the vast majority of them were done by people outside the US. When I compare that to the last time I was investigating Norelco razors, the youtube razor reviews were mainly done by younger Americans.

I think your projections Chip are valid and most likely dead nuts on the money. You are not predicting anything different than the effects of age and mortality of a specific group of aging people. There is only one way to change those projections and that is to change the makeup of the target group you are discussing.

Another Chip
KC9YAJ
73s

 

Aloha Chip,

I really hate when people use the term "aging" as a reason people aren't participating in events such as this. Cost, hassle & travel time of all travel (especially air) has increased drastically
in recent years, as has the danger of US roadways (including Hawaii). Age has nothing to do with it. Just because a person has greying hair or bald, 50 or 90 years old I really believe has
no effect generally on any ham radio events. ALL of us are getting older every day, and that's all people in all hobbies & ventures.

For vendors it is no longer a good investment due to most of us buy online, which is nothing new.

The reason they came early and left early is what they came for was the swap tables. Besides, who
wants to miss lunch?

Your perspective on this is I believe is somewhat flawed though not totally untrue.


Tommy KH6TA

 

Of the group of 7 hams I meet up with at Dayton, and Field Day, I am the second oldest.
I just turned 40.

Perhaps the younger ones were too busy working and supporting their families to head off for
a weekend of fun.

Luke VE3LDJ

 

Tough to compete against Cellphones and the Internet for kids interest!

 

Economy and Expense

When I was growing up in the 60s (born in '54) my dad tried for the longest time to get me and my brother (NO8X) interested in Ham radio. He bought books, code oscillators, and other things to spark our interest but we weren't interested in learning Morse code. We both eventually joined the Air Force (me in '71 and my brother in '73). We both got our Ham tickets in 1983 and eventually upgraded to Extra while code was still required. I have been an Elmer for a guy at work. Eli got interested while I was looking for a new 2-meter rig for MARS operation. Eli passed the first two exams in one session back in Dec '12 and he passed his Extra on 21 May '13. Never really asked Eli (KB7EHL) if he ever had a previous interest in Ham radio but I do know he's been around communications all his life (retired Army). Anyway, I honestly feel, at least for this year and possibly in the near term, the economy is hurting everyone and the trek to Dayton would dent anyone's wallet. I'm sure they're a lot of Hams, old and new alike, that would love to experience Dayton. Let's just hope the economy doesn't kill it before we can once again afford to make the trip without selling the farm... 73, Charlie - NO8X (Ex: HL9FY, KA2FY (Japan), and KG4FY (Guantanamo Bay, Cuba))

 

My 2 cents worth from a slightly greying amateur radio enthusiast....location, location, location....sorry to say but the reviews I have read about the Dayton facility and accommodation really put me off from attending. I'm certainly not going to drag my family and kids there. For a premier US Ham radio event it really needs to be hosted at a city that supports conventions with an event center, reasonable priced accommodation and excellent transportation options.....make it a destination location and the family and kids can come along and just maybe the kids may become interested in the hobby. 73, Mike - NZ1MT

 

Mike, This was my first trip to Dayton. City or ham-thing (as my wife calls it).

Hara is a bit dingy but, save for the slightly gross lavaratories, was more than acceptable. In fact I found it kinda cozy and very, very friendly. In fact, I found everyone I met in Dayton--ham or otherwise-- friendly.


Dayton itself is a combination of vital city and urban blight. Welcome to the United States in 2013. Not Detroit or Gary, for sure. More like Pittsburgh.

I didn't find anything on the pricey side. Maybe because I live in Boston...where a hotel is $200+ a night.

As for not bringing the family to Dayton...well, they have one of the very best museums in the world--the Air Force Museum. Think Smithsonian Air and Space...now multiply by 10! This is a destination in itself: clean; modern; huge; fascinating.

I am looking forward to going to the Hamvention next year. The only thing that turned me off was that United lost my luggage(with a bunch of demo stuff), and I had to give a Forum talk without it. Luggage showed up three hours later. I did what all hams do: I improvised

73,
Chip W1YW

 

I have to agree with Luke, VE3LDJ. Maybe the younger ones, 20-somethings and 30-somethings, finally got something right. Support your family because it'll be the one to take care of you if something happens to you. Ham radio won't.

I think a lot of hams, both younger and older have finally realized that this hobby is a monetary sinkhole. My wife told me to take from the budget whatever I need (you read it right) and do it all right -- the first time -- with new equipment. I stopped -- when the cost of an HF vertical and a VHF/UHF discone, with full lightning and surge protection went past $1,500.

If i get back on the air from the new QTH, fine. If I don't, fine. I've got better things (and a heck of a lot of them) to worry about.

73!

Jerry, N9LCD