Sunspot Prediction Model Analysis

Discussion in 'Ham Radio Discussions' started by KC8VWM, Jun 14, 2019.

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  1. KC8VWM

    KC8VWM Moderator Volunteer Moderator QRZ Page

    This is our current prediction model as of 01 Jun 2019 - NOAA

    Predicts we are not yet at minimum until late 2022 or greater.

    Chart A:

    [​IMG]


    Current prediction model as of 01 Jun 2019 09:42 UTC - Australia Bureau of Meteorology.

    Chart B:

    [​IMG]

    This chart is my own modified NOAA prediction model as of 05 Feb. 2019

    Chart C:

    Sunspot_Cycle-predict.jpg

    In February, I hypothesized and modified NOAA chart C to propose to others how cycle 24 will end, and cycle 25 will begin; similar to how cycle 23 ended, and cycle 24 began as observed between late 2009 and early 2010. (circled in red)

    Note the current prediction model shown in chart B seems to be consistent with my earlier conclusions shown in chart C, yet not with the current NOAA prediction model chart A.

    What are your thoughts and/or past experiences about various prediction models?
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019
    KA4DPO, VK2WP and KY5U like this.
  2. WF4W

    WF4W Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    I know nothing of scientific modeling; however, I always learned that it was an 11 year cycle. . . we had high sun spots in 1989 when i began my radio hobby (working japan on 10m regularly) -- so my assumption is that we'll be on the upswing again soon for some decent sunspot activity in 2022-ish
     
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  3. VA3VF

    VA3VF Ham Member QRZ Page

    Hi Charles...good to 'see' you again.

    I don't know anything about Sunspot Prediction Model Analysis, but it totally agrees with my own predictions. Low numbers until the end 0f 2022, then things get better by the hour. I heard the next cycle is called retirement.:)

    Looks like the timing will be perfect for me. Can't wait... for both.:D

    Raptors greetings.;)
     
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  4. KC8VWM

    KC8VWM Moderator Volunteer Moderator QRZ Page

    How 'bout the Raptors huh? ...Good show!

    Not sure I am in agreement with 2022, but in any event it's good to see you too. :)
     
  5. WF4W

    WF4W Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    what is your methodology for predicting sunspot activity?
     
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  6. KC8VWM

    KC8VWM Moderator Volunteer Moderator QRZ Page

    Methodology is based on surveying current and historical data however, the hypothesis proposes the current NOAA model isn't accurately depicting typical, or an otherwise expected cyclic trend.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019
  7. WF4W

    WF4W Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    what about this cycle isnt fitting the typical model? Number of sunspots?

    The problem with trying to model sunspot cycles is the relative lack of data. We have 300 years of data from a billion yr old star :) -- perhaps THIS cycle is part of a greater pattern/cycle that we simply have not yet had the opporttunity to observe. Perhaps the Maunder Minimum corresponded to a particular point in the cosmic year?

    The best we have to go on is the 11-ish year cycle so my predictions stands - we're beginning an upswing that will peak in 2022-2023 :)
     
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  8. NL7W

    NL7W Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Interesting thread!
    Congrats to the Raptors!
    Speaking of radio-electronics and predictive analysis, I use an RF terrain analysis tool, called RAPTR, to model and show me my public safety radio system's coverage areas. :)
     
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  9. KC8VWM

    KC8VWM Moderator Volunteer Moderator QRZ Page

    According to the latest prediction model from the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, we are already on our way.

    I am not convinced you have arrived at adequate conclusion suggesting this issue relates to a lack of data spanning over a 300 year period.

    Rather, one might argue and derive it may be the result of a lack of inadequate analysis and interpretation. I base this observation on the finding of conflicting data observed in various prediction models which are often published concurrently from the same scientific community. Clearly a conflict exists between prediction model A and prediction model B and this isn't suggestive of any lack of data existing over the stated 300 year period.
     
    W2AI likes this.
  10. NL7W

    NL7W Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    I think Charles knows what I'm worried about, and that's an upcoming "dud" of a cycle and successive cycles after that.
    Is a Minimum upon us? We shall see soon enough.

    So another couple of years of excellent low-band prop is to be had. Good! :)
    I haven't spent much time DX'ing on the low bands, and want to in the near term.
    I see a 2 or 4-element 80M phased vertical array in my future. Such would negate tower climbing.
    Perhaps a 40 and 80M 2-element phased array, if I can get the phasing and switching arrangement correct for the half and quarter-wave spacing.
    I'll have to investigate this. It's only a thought at this time.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019

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