Sunspot Cycle 25 Will Be a BIG One -- Latest Research for Ham Radio

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by K8QS, Sep 17, 2021.

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  1. W4HM

    W4HM XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    I visited Art in 1993 and 1994 when I lived in Cupertino, CA. He was a very intelligent and common sense type of person. He didn't believe most of the quasi scientific stuff he broadcasted on his show. It really saddened me due to his early demise at age 71.
     
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  2. W4HM

    W4HM XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    If the sun is to quiet cosmic rays can reach earth and over ionize the D layer (sporadic-D) both day and night. That would negatively impact 160 meter radio propagation.

    Borrowed from www.spaceweather.com

    .....Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.....

    Oulu Neutron Counts

    Percentages of the Space Age average:
    today: +8.7% High
    48-hr change: -0.2%[​IMG]
    Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
    Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
    explanation | more data
    Updated 20 Sep 2021 @ 0700 UT

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. N1FM

    N1FM Ham Member QRZ Page

    Your prediction is just as likely as any of the professional prognosticators.

    NOAA says: "The forecast consensus: a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24.[/b] Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months)."

    Space Systems Research says: “We predict the decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21 through 24, has come to an end,” said Lisa Upton, Ph.D., panel co-chair and solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. “There is no indication we are approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

    Solar Physics says: "In a new article published November 24, 2020, in the peer-reviewed journal Solar Physics, the research team predicts that Sunspot Cycle 25 will peak with a maximum sunspot number somewhere between approximately 210 and 260, which would put the new cycle in the company of the top few ever observed."

    "Electroverse says: "Scientists charged with forecasting the next 11-year solar cycle say that it’s likely to be weak — similar to the current one, cycle 24, which is the weakest in over 100 years."

    We should probably just get on the air and see if 15 meters is open. Much more effective tool than listening to solar prognosticators who are all over the map!
     
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  4. KC7JNJ

    KC7JNJ Ham Member QRZ Page

    Growing up during the late 70s early 80s, we had a few kids on CB sort of a small local club. We used to get so disappointed when we would turn our radios on in the morning and The conditions were so hot it was like listening to the Borg Collective. We could not even talk to one another locally as it was booming in so strong. As kids we titled that condition “Californian skip” we we’re so sure that all this “junk” on our radios was skip coming from the California lol. If I had only been a ham and know what I know now.

    Over the last 4 years I have had enough European and South American DX on 5watts SSB and a wire to keep me enthusiastic. Even if this cycle went to one 130 140 for a time I would be happy. With that said I hope it really pops and we get a whopper (Said in my best Scottish brogue)
     
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  5. W4HM

    W4HM XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    There is nothing I want more than to have my solar cycle 25 forecast be dead wrong. I so look forward to regularly operating 10 meters on CW, SSB, the myriad of digital modes, and last but not the least AM.

    Recently I've made east-west 10 meter CW and digital mode contacts pretty often. So anytime the DSSN is higher than 100 10 meters will be open. Many don't realize that 10 meters has been open and are missing out on the fun.
     
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  6. N1FM

    N1FM Ham Member QRZ Page

    Yes sir; fun times. I've worked the Middle East from my vehicle on SSB with less than 100 watts on ten meters. Hope I see another really good cycle!
     
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  7. K8XG

    K8XG XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    @HAY the late 1950s cycle was the HAY DAY of ham radio... Even the Wife brought you beer on a platter to your console Hi H ... But Yes I did experience the late 70s of talking to southwest OZ on 11 meters...
     
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  8. K8XG

    K8XG XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Well the CB folks on 38 LSB realize that, and why I have a 142 GTL on a sorta dummy load type antenna... when it starts up I know 1o is open...
     
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  9. KD7BMX

    KD7BMX Ham Member QRZ Page

    I wish Wolf Blitzer would report on this so I could invert the data. It's the only way to 100% perfectly predict the future.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2021
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  10. K8QS

    K8QS Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Could we be even more creative, using something like animal species rather than human names? And what if we named them after the fact: The Sleeping Lion, The Stinky Hound-dog, etc?

    Quin, K8QS
    Ham Radio Perspectives YouTube Channel
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3MJT8o8-XMxF8XROf7Q5GA/videos
     
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