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Space Weather Warning

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by KG7QCK, Jun 21, 2015.

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  1. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    download.png
    SOHO LASCO C2 4-12-16 05:00:00 UTC


    Mission Manager Update: Kepler Recovered from Emergency and Stable

    Mission operations engineers have successfully recovered the Kepler spacecraft from Emergency Mode (EM). On Sunday morning, the spacecraft reached a stable state with the communication antenna pointed toward Earth, enabling telemetry and historical event data to be downloaded to the ground. The spacecraft is operating in its lowest fuel-burn mode.

    The mission has cancelled the spacecraft emergency, returning the Deep Space Network ground communications to normal scheduling.
    http://www.nasa.gov/feature/mission-manager-update-kepler-recovered-from-emergency-and-stable

    Product: Forecast Discussion
    Issued: 2016 Apr 12 1230 UTC

    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    Solar Activity

    .24 hr Summary...
    Solar activity was low. Region 2529 (N09E22, Eki/beta) produced multiple
    low level C-class flares throughout the period. Despite this increase in
    activity, Region 2529 showed indications of slight decay in its
    intermediate spots and slowed growth in its larger leader spot. Region
    2530 (N15W17, Cso/beta) was absent of significant flare activity while
    displaying signs of slight decay.

    <visible in LASCO image above>

    Other activity included two CMEs off of the south and east limbs that
    combined to produce a partial halo CME signature. Activity is first
    visible in LASCO/C2 imagery at 12/0224 UTC. A Type II (215 km/s) radio
    sweep occurred beginning at 12/0153 UTC and is believed to be associated
    with this event. Forecaster analysis determined that it is far-sided
    activity as there is a large filament eruption visible in STEREO EUVI
    imagery near the same times.
     
  2. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    20160418_004319_512_0304.jpg
    Image: SDO AIA 304 4-18-16 00:43:19 UTC

    Region 2529 is currently located on the right (west) just north of the equator which appears to be the source of several events in the past few hours. Note Alert Event times in the messages below.


    The flare reached a preliminary magnitude of M6.7 at 00:20:00 UT.

    It appears a CME is in progress but due to the location may not be Earth directed.

    When these events end visit the SWEOC-SWPC Radio Burst log:
    http://sweoc.org/Daily_Radio_Bursts.html


    SWEOC-SWPC Alert Log:
    http://sweoc.org/Alerts_and_Warnings.html

    Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt
    Issued: 2016 Apr 18 0148 UTC

    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays
    # Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
    #
    # SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
    #---------------------------------------------------------------------

    Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
    Serial Number: 525
    Issue Time: 2016 Apr 18 0053 UTC

    ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
    Begin Time: 2016 Apr 18 0034 UTC

    www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
    Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

    #-------------------------------------------------
    Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
    Serial Number: 1042
    Issue Time: 2016 Apr 18 0052 UTC

    ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
    Begin Time: 2016 Apr 18 0030 UTC

    Estimated Velocity: 1869 km/s
    www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
    Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

    #-------------------------------------------------
    Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
    Serial Number: 683
    Issue Time: 2016 Apr 18 0049 UTC

    SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
    Begin Time: 2016 Apr 18 0023 UTC
    Maximum Time: 2016 Apr 18 0024 UTC
    End Time: 2016 Apr 18 0024 UTC
    Duration: 1 minutes
    Peak Flux: 120 sfu

    Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 102 sfu
    www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
    Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

    #-------------------------------------------------
    Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
    Serial Number: 143
    Issue Time: 2016 Apr 18 0044 UTC

    SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
    Begin Time: 2016 Apr 18 0014 UTC
    Maximum Time: 2016 Apr 18 0029 UTC
    End Time: 2016 Apr 18 0039 UTC
    X-ray Class: M6.7
    Location: N10W62
    NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
    www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
    Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

    #-------------------------------------------------
    Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
    Serial Number: 260
    Issue Time: 2016 Apr 18 0027 UTC

    ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
    Threshold Reached: 2016 Apr 18 0026 UTC
    NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
    www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

    goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif

    ace-epam-e-24-hour.gif
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2016
  3. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    solar-cycle-10-cm-radio-flux.gif
    NOAA/SWPC 10.7 cm Progression Chart last updated 4-4-2016.

    Today's 10.7 cm Flux has again reached 77 for the second day. This is a smoothed data chart. Sunspot count is at 22.

    For more info on the Solar Sunspot Cycle, 10.7 cm, and AP progression:
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts
     
  4. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    synoptic-map.jpg
    Image: SWPC Synoptic Map 5-6-16 1545 UTC

    5-6-16.jpg
    Image: SDO AIA 211 5-6-16 22:24:36 UTC
    Circle and Inset: Coronal Hole (CH #78)
    Square: Region 2541

    It appears negative polarity CH #78 may effect Earth from 5-6-16 2300 to 5-8-16 1200 UTC. The peak effect around 5-7-14 1900 UTC. Solar winds should peak around 5-9-16 0000 UTC.

    Region 2541 has about a 10% probability of C level flare activity over the next 12 hours.
     
  5. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    latest_2048_HMII.jpg
    Image: SDO HMII QLC 5-15-16 12:41:15 UTC

    While transiting across the far side of the sun, old region 2537 appears to have grown in size since 4/27/16. It has rotated into better view and is now numbered new region 2546 and is classified as an Alpha (low magnetic strength). It is located about 7 degrees south of the solar equator which could pose a threat to Earth in about 6 days (May 31).


    This region is about 250 times the size of Earth.

    Old region 2533 should rotate into view just north of 2546 in a day or so along the eastern limb.

    Product: Forecast Discussion
    Issued: 2016 May 15 1230 UTC

    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    Solar Activity

    .24 hr Summary...
    Solar activity reached low levels this period due to C-class flare
    activity. Region 2543 (S05W70, Cro/beta) produced two C4 flares at
    14/1519 UTC and 15/0409 UTC which were the largest events observed this
    period. Region 2544 (N20W08, Dao/beta-gamma) underwent growth this
    period and increased in magnetic complexity while the remaining active
    regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass
    ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2016
  6. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    download.png
    SOHO LASCO C2 5-15-16 16:00 UTC
    download (1).png
    GOES 14 PTHNA @ 0.4 Seconds 5-15-16 16:45:00 UTC

    Region 2542 on the western (right) limb appears to have erupted and created a long duration flare andCME outbound westward from the surface at about 15:27:55 UTC this date. The full halo event can bee seen in both the GOES and LASCO images abovre. The magnitude of this event is about C3. Further imaging from LASCO C2 and C3 should determine any Earthbound component of this event in the coming hours.

    Region 2544 (just north of center disk) also erupted at about 19:25:00 UTC and created a CME which appears to have been re-absorbed in the sun's surface. Further imaging will be needed to analyze this event which is almost on the Sun-Earth centerline.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2016
  7. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    ace-sis-24-hour.gif ACE RTSW SIS 5-15-16 21:21:07 UTC
    ace-epam-e-24-hour.gif
    ACE RTSW EPAM Electrons 5-15-16 21:20:07 UTC

    The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft instruments are detecting a proton >10 MeV and an electron event reaching the spacecraft L1 Lagrange location (1 million miles from Earth) since the region 2542 event mentioned in the previous post.

    It takes about 8 minutes (500 to 520 seconds) for light to travel from the sun and reach Earth. Plasma (electrons and protons) ride the solar wind with a boost from the eruption.

    This event should trigger polar aurora activity and storming (G1 or greater) in the coming hours.


    More on the ACE spacecraft: http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2016
  8. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    latest_2048_HMIIC.jpg SDO HMI Continuum 6-3-16 01:30:00 UTC

    Almost Spotless sun. Last zero sunspot day: 7/7/14 (During mid solar maximum).


    Date: 6-3-16 @ 02:25 UTC
    SSN: 27
    Radio Flux: 85
    X-Ray Flux: B1.6

    Coronal Hole #83 will rotate into a Geo-effective position in the coming day.
    synoptic-map (1).jpg
    Product: Forecast Discussion
    Issued: 2016 Jun 03 0030 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center


    .Forecast...
    The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
    (03 May). Field activity is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
    geomagnetic storm levels on days two and three (04-05 May) due to the
    onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a recurrent negative
    polarity CH HSS.
     
  9. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    latest_2048_HMII (1).jpg
    SDO HMI QLC 6-4-16 00:11:15 UTC

    Referring to previous post...

    Product: Forecast Discussion
    Issued: 2016 Jun 04 0030 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    Solar Activity

    .24 hr Summary...
    Solar activity was very low and there were no active regions with
    sunspots on the visible disk. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
    (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.


    .Forecast...
    Solar wind parameters are likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
    geomagnetic storm levels late on day one (04 Jun) and early on day two
    (05 Jun) due to the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a
    negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on
    day three (06 Jun) as CH HSS influence begins to wane.
     
  10. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    ahead_euvi_195_latest.jpg
    STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 6-4-16 01:55:30 UTC

    Spotless Sun is confirmed at 0225 UTC 6-4-16. Stereo A imagery is indicating this may continue for the next several days.

    NOTE: The forecast solar minimum is 2021.

    Product: Daily Solar Data DSD.txt
    Issued: 0225 UT 04 Jun 2016
    #
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
    #

    Date: 2016 06 03
    Radio Flux: 83
    Sunspot Count: 0
    Sunspot Area: 0
    New Regions: 0
    X-Ray Flux: B1.3
     

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