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Space Weather Warning

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by KG7QCK, Jun 21, 2015.

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  1. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    Referring to the previous post, another flare and CME was observed on the left edge of the circled area at about 3-16-16 19:11:55 UTC visible in SDO AIA 304 imagery. Another event occurred south of this area. These events do not appear to be Earth directed at this time.

    Product: Forecast Discussion
    Issued: 2016 Mar 17 0030 UTC

    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    Solar Activity

    .24 hr Summary...

    Solar activity reached low levels due to a C2 flare from the vicinity of
    spotless Region 2522 (N14W85), which was rotating towards the NW limb.
    The flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep (853 km/s estimated
    shock speed) at 16/0645 UTC. An associated CME was first observed in
    SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at 16/0700 UTC. Analysis of all available imagery
    suggested the CME did not have any Earth-facing component. A WSA-Enlil
    run was accomplished and confirmed the CME will not impact Earth.

    Region 2519 (N05W17, Dso/beta) lost its eastern trailer spots, while an
    opposite polarity penumbral spot developed just south of the primary
    leader spot. This created an area of minor N-S aligned magnetic shear
    and a slightly enhanced magnetic gradient across the region. This minor
    increased instability likely contributed to the regions production of a
    B4 flare at 16/1955 UTC and several additional enhancements as observed
    in GOES SXI imagery
    . Region 2521 (N17W37, Cro/beta) underwent decay over
    the period and was inactive. Region 2523 (S10W22, Bxo/beta) was inactive
    and nearly decayed completely. New NOAA SWPC Region 2524 (N14E69,
    Hsx/alpha) was assigned to a spot that rotated into view, likely
    associated with an active region that was expected to rotate into view.

    No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery
    during the period.

    .Forecast...
    Active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are expected early on day one
    (17 Mar) in response to continuing CH HSS influences. Geomagnetic
    response is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels as the day
    progresses and CH HSS effects begin to weaken. Quiet to unsettled levels
    are expected on day two (18 Mar) as CH HSS effects continue to diminish.
    Day three (19 Mar) is expected to see a return to quiet levels due to a
    lack of recurrent or transient solar wind features.
     
  2. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    3-17-16.jpg
    Left image: STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 3-17-16 00:50:30 UTC (sun far side)
    Right image: GOES 13 SXI PTHNA @ 0.4 seconds 3-17-16 00:44:00 UTC

    The oval area as seen in the STEREO A image shows a region which appears to be an extension of the leading edge (GOES image end of arrow) of Coronal Hole (CH) #65. The region rotates from the left image to the right.

    The area on the far side extends well below the equator and should rotate into Earth view in 24 to 36 hours (3-18-16 UT). The leading edge of CH #65 may have a strong influence starting about 3-20-16 which could last until 3-30-16 or longer with strong solar winds.
     
  3. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    latest_4096_HMIIC c2.jpg
    SDO Colorized Intensitygram HMI QLC 3-17-16 01:45:00 UTC
    The bottom edge of image is the solar equator at the eastern limb

    The latest SDO HMI is indicating a second sunspot following newly numbered region 2524. This new region is about to rotate into view in the coming hours and appears to be larger in area that 2524. Both may have the same region number.

    This region appears very active in other imagery. They would reach the Earth-Sun centerline about 3-23-16.


    We will need a larger size calendar to show all dates and times of coming events.
     
  4. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    3-31-16.jpg
    SDO AIA 304 3-31-16 00:43:55 UTC

    A small filament eruption has occurred in the south west region of the visible solar surface this date. Based on the location, there is a very small chance of any Earth directed material from this event.


    Product: Forecast Discussion
    Issued: 2016 Mar 31 0030 UTC

    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    .Forecast...
    Geomagnetic activity is expected be at quiet to unsettled levels on day
    one (31 Mar) due to continued, but waning CH HSS effects.

    Day two (01Apr) is expected to experience predominantly quiet levels, until late in
    the day when unsettled to active levels are likely due to responses to a
    disturbed IMF from the pending SSBC and approaching CIR.

    Day three (02Apr) is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storming levels for a few isolated
    periods due to geomagnetic responses to the CIR and negative polarity CH
    HSS.
     
  5. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    [​IMG]
    SWEOC.org GRAPE Project http://www.sweoc.org/GRAPE.html
    (Chart above updates every few days or as possible when viewed)

    ahead_euvi_195_latest.jpg
    STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 3-31-16 01:55:30 UTC

    Sunspot counts continue to decline. STEREO Ahead imaging indicates almost no new regions are about to rotate into Earth view in the coming 5 or 6 days. It is possible that the count could reach 0 (zero). Usually, a zero count is registered if the total observed count is less than 10.

    Sunspot Count = 12
    The GOES X-Ray Flux today is A 5.6 (lowest level is A0.0).
    10.7 cm Radio Flux at Penticton Canada today is 84 (solar min is about 66).
     
  6. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    Product: Forecast Discussion
    Issued: 2016 Apr 01 0030 UTC

    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    Solar Activity

    .24 hr Summary...
    Solar activity remained at very low levels with no flare activity.
    Region 2526 (S05W22, Hsx/alpha) is the only spot group on the
    Earth-facing visible disk. The regions magnetic gradient remained weak
    with no shear.

    <see post #244>


    A nearly 10 degree long, curved filament centered near
    S25W65 erupted along a SW vector between 31/0020-0110 UTC as visible in
    GONG-H/alpha and SDO AIA imagery. The associated CME, first visible at
    31/0125 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C-2 imagery, was modeled and showed a clear
    miss to the west and south of Earths orbit.


    No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

    .Forecast...
    Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with only a
    slight chance for C-class flares all three days (01-03 Apr). Analysis of
    STEREO-A/EUV imagery did not reveal any active regions within a few days
    of rotating onto the Earth-facing disk, therefore, Region 2526 remains
    the most likely source.


    Geo-space Forecast...
    The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet most of day one (01 Apr).
    Late in the day, the geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled
    to active due to the arrival of an expected SSBC and CIR.

    Day two (02 Apr) is likely to reach G1-Minor storming levels, with a chance for an isolated period of G2-Moderate storming due to influences from the CIR
    and subsequent CH HSS.


    Unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for G1-Minor storming is expected on
    day three (03 Apr), due to continued CH HSS effects.
     
  7. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    latest.png
    GOES 13 SXI PTHK @ 0.4 seconds 4-1-16 03:00:15 UTC
    latest (1).png
    GOES 15 SXI PTHK @ 0.4 seconds 4-1-16 03:16:15 UTC
    Region 2526 is located just right (west) of center disk

    Low X-Ray levels are making images darker including this 0.4 second exposure from GOES 13 and 15. There are several examples for reference in earlier posts that show a "brighter" image which indicates a stronger X-Ray level.


    Latest: 4-1-16 @ 0225 UTC
    Sunspot Count = 11
    The GOES X-Ray Flux: A 3.7
    10.7 cm Radio Flux at Penticton Canada: 82
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2016
  8. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    4-8-16.jpg
    Bottom edge of image is the solar equator - Eastern limb
    Earth shown to scale (35 x 35 pixels)

    It appears old region 2524 (N14 degrees) is coming into view and should be numbered new region 2530 later today. At this angle this region is almost 4 times the diameter of Earth (7,917.5 x4 = 31,670 miles) north to south.

    There appears to be another cluster beyond the leading edge.

    The SDO AIA 171 image (upper left) is showing the relative magnetic field and a large "crater of plasma" surrounding the new region.


    This region should reach a geo-effective location (center) about 4-14-16.
     
  9. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    4-10-16.jpg Left image: SDO AIA 304 4-10-16 11:13:31 UTC
    Right image: SDO AIA 171 4-10-16 10:40:35 UTC
    Oval is showing a filament eruption
    Square is showing region 2529


    Note: The Kepler Observatory is currently in emergency mode. The Deep Space Network is supporting communications and as such some images from other spacecraft may be delayed during this effort.

    More information: http://www.nasa.gov/feature/mission-manager-update-kepler-spacecraft-in-emergency-mode

    The two images above are showing a filament eruption earlier this date which started around 10:00 UTC. This region may have discharged a small amount of material towards Earth. This event will be studied during the coming hours.

    Since the emergence of region 2529 there have been many radio bursts in the 245 MHz band. The latest on 4-10-16 started at 0026 and ended at 0408 UTC (almost 4 hours in duration).

    Note: The QRZ editor does not support the tab/column function. You can view Radio Burst List at:
    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/lists/radio/radio_bursts.txt



    Product: radio_bursts.txt
    Created: 2016 Apr 10 1310 UT
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Send comments and questions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
    #
    # Updated every 30 minutes.
    #
    # Radio Bursts in Last 45 days
    # 10cm (2695MHz) Bursts >=100% above background,
    # 245MHz Bursts > 100 flux units,
    # 245MHz Radio Noise Storms,
    # Type II, and Type IV Sweep Frequency Bursts.
    # Peak Flux Solar Wind
    # Date Start Max End Obs Q Type Freq or Sweep Speed Reg#
    #------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    2016 04 10 0026 0408 0418 LEA G RNS 245 310
    2016 04 10 0125 0125 0125 PAL G RBR 245 100
    2016 04 10 0249 0250 0300 PAL G RBR 245 190

    2016 04 09 0009 0637 0823 LEA G RNS 245 470
    2016 04 09 0032 0032 0032 PAL G RBR 245 170
    2016 04 09 0122 0122 0122 PAL G RBR 245 200
    2016 04 09 0153 0154 0154 PAL G RBR 245 160
    2016 04 09 0236 0236 0238 PAL G RBR 245 240
    2016 04 09 0241 0241 0241 PAL G RBR 245 180
    2016 04 09 0249 0249 0249 PAL G RBR 245 260
    2016 04 09 0307 0307 0307 PAL G RBR 245 140
    2016 04 09 0311 0311 0314 PAL G RBR 245 220
    2016 04 09 0347 0347 0347 PAL G RBR 245 150
    2016 04 09 0354 0356 0356 PAL G RBR 245 130
    2016 04 09 0359 0404 0413 PAL G RBR 245 460
    2016 04 09 0419 0419 0420 PAL G RBR 245 140
    2016 04 09 0501 0502 0502 SVI G RBR 245 170
    2016 04 09 0911 0911 0911 LEA G RBR 245 140
    2016 04 09 0913 0913 0914 LEA G RBR 245 140
    2016 04 09 0930 0930 0930 LEA G RBR 245 270
    2016 04 09 0938 0938 0940 LEA G RBR 245 150
    2016 04 09 0952 0953 0953 LEA G RBR 245 140
    2016 04 09 1122 1122 1122 SAG G RBR 245 150
    2016 04 09 1636 1636 1636 PAL G RBR 245 160
    2016 04 09 2253 2253 2253 LEA G RBR 245 110 2529
    2016 04 09 2301 2302 2302 LEA G RBR 245 110
    2016 04 09 2323 2323 2323 LEA G RBR 245 100
    2016 04 09 2325 2325 2325 LEA G RBR 245 100

    2016 04 08 0749 0749 0749 LEA G RBR 245 140
    2016 04 08 1217 1217 1217 SVI G RBR 245 110
    2016 04 08 1219 1220 1220 SVI G RBR 245 370
    2016 04 08 1225 1227 1227 SVI G RBR 245 120
    2016 04 08 1225 1441 2213 SAG G RNS 245 650
    2016 04 08 1314 1314 1314 SVI G RBR 245 180
    2016 04 08 1317 1319 1319 SVI G RBR 245 380
    2016 04 08 1341 1344 1347 SVI G RBR 245 550
    2016 04 08 1354 1355 1357 SVI G RBR 245 380
    2016 04 08 1411 1411 1411 SVI G RBR 245 120
    2016 04 08 1433 1434 1434 SVI G RBR 245 340
    2016 04 08 1436 1436 1437 SVI G RBR 245 200
    2016 04 08 1440 1441 1442 SVI G RBR 245 680
    2016 04 08 1450 1452 1452 SVI G RBR 245 220
    2016 04 08 1522 1522 1523 SVI G RBR 245 210
    2016 04 08 1640 1641 1642 PAL G RBR 245 480
    2016 04 08 1646 1646 1647 PAL G RBR 245 150
    2016 04 08 1653 1655 1656 PAL G RBR 245 500
    2016 04 08 1659 1701 1701 PAL G RBR 245 250
    2016 04 08 1729 1729 1729 PAL G RBR 245 110
    2016 04 08 1738 1740 1746 PAL G RBR 245 210
    2016 04 08 1758 1758 1759 PAL G RBR 245 230
    2016 04 08 1811 1811 1811 PAL G RBR 245 230
    2016 04 08 1838 1838 1838 PAL G RBR 245 290
    2016 04 08 2026 2026 2026 PAL G RBR 245 110
    2016 04 08 2103 2103 2103 PAL G RBR 245 100
    2016 04 08 2146 2146 2146 PAL G RBR 245 100
    2016 04 08 2203 2203 2203 PAL G RBR 245 100
    2016 04 08 2212 2212 2213 PAL G RBR 245 220
    2016 04 08 2243 2243 2243 PAL G RBR 245 150
    2016 04 08 2257 2257 2257 LEA G RBR 245 150
    2016 04 08 2317 2317 2317 PAL G RBR 245 110
    2016 04 08 2328 2328 2328 PAL G RBR 245 100
    2016 04 08 2334 2335 2338 PAL G RBR 245 310
    2016 04 08 2346 2346 2346 PAL G RBR 245 310
     
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2016
  10. KG7QCK

    KG7QCK Ham Member QRZ Page

    Referring to the previous post:
    Note: Region 2529 should reach an Earth directed location about 4-14-16.

    Product: Forecast Discussion
    Issued: 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC

    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    Solar Activity

    .24 hr Summary...
    Solar activity was low this period due to a long-duration C1 flare
    observed at 11/0202 UTC from Region 2529 (N09E34, Ehi/beta). Region 2529
    exhibited some intermediate spot growth and maintained a simple bi-pole
    magnetic configuration. New Region 2530 (N16W05, Cao/beta) emerged on
    this disk this period and was quiet and stable.

    An approximately 10 degree long filament, centered near N18E29, was
    observed erupting at about 10/1000 UTC. An associated CME was observed
    in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NNE limb beginning at 10/1100 UTC.
    CME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, suggests a possible
    weak, glancing blow at Earth mid to late 13 April. No other
    Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.


    .Forecast...
    Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
    (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (11-13
    Apr).

    Geospace


    .24 hr Summary...
    The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels this
    period.

    .Forecast...
    The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
    through late on day two (11-12 Apr) under a nominal solar wind
    environment. Active levels are expected late on day two increasing to G1
    (Minor) geomagnetic storms by day three (13 Apr). This is due to the
    influence of a negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible weak
    glancing blow from the 10 Apr CME mid to late on 13 Apr.
     

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