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Solar Alert - wind speeds of 800 km/s expected

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by VE7DXW, Dec 8, 2020.

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  1. W6RZ

    W6RZ Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    You can get the input ionograms here. The site is a little slow though.

    https://lgdc.uml.edu/common/DIDBFastStationList

    Looks like there's quite a bit of interference on the Port Arguello ionograms at that time.
     
    VE7DXW likes this.
  2. W5EBB

    W5EBB Ham Member QRZ Page

    Swing and a miss. NASA, NOAA, and the experts were way off on this one. NOAA's predicted maximum was G3=Kp7 SEVERE geomagnetic storm. Actual maximum was Kp4 ACTIVE conditions.

    You can't always trust the "experts" to be right, even with all their data, models, simulations, and predictions.

    Someone who did get it right was the author of this excellent 2005 presentation (a HAM) about solar weather and its effects on amateur radio: https://www.qrparci.org/resource/FDIM81.pdf

    This link is also included on the page https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/hf-radio-communications

    See the last page, figure 17, which indicates that for a C class solar flare with earth bound CME, the resulting geomagnetic storm a few days later would be between ACTIVE and MINOR.

    This is exactly what happened in this case. A C7.4 solar flare with earth bound CME on Dec 7, 2020 resulted in a maximum geomagnetic disturbance on Dec 10, 2020 of Kp4 (ACTIVE).
     
    VE7DXW likes this.
  3. W1PJE

    W1PJE Ham Member QRZ Page

    Paging through the ionograms around the time of the first spike (~19 UTC) is illuminating. It confirms that RFI got bad enough to fool the F2 peak algorithm for a single record.
     
  4. W0PV

    W0PV Ham Member QRZ Page

    Observing from FL there was a significant 28 Mhz band opening late into Friday evening and seen again upon awaking at sunrise today (Saturday) which peaked near midday.

    It appeared to be typical Sporadic E layer propagation, signals quickly peaking then taking deep QSB dips. From here on the Gulf coast the range extended mostly from the USA eastern seaboard states and out to the midwest.

    However both last night and especially early this afternoon there was a time when QSO's were made within the USA/ Canada from the Southwestern & Rocky Mts states and out to the far west coast (double hop E skip?)

    Later afternoon a separate period occurred with transequatorial DX, down into SA, especially Brazil, again not unusual. No DX from Europe or Asia was copied.

    Reports from the Upper Midwest (the so called RF Black Hole) indicate they unfortunately had much less favorable propagation, which is typical of when a geo-mag disturbance takes place.

    The band is relatively quiet tonight though; just a few scattered "pings" but I did squeek out an extremely marginal contact with one CA station a few minutes ago, with 100 watts & a wire dipole.

    Hopefully todays situation at least repeats tomorrow, Sunday.
     
  5. KE0QQQ

    KE0QQQ XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    I can repeat the same observation with my 100w on a 1/4 horizontal dipole at 30 ft. With the broadsides facing south
    Only here within EN34, the destination was Southbound with one ping from Argentina on PSK reporter. Otherwise it was a solid skip that was fun to work while it lasted
    It took like 10 seconds to appear and 10 seconds to fade when it did
    I appreciate the chance for the contacts this past weekend ! 10mSun.JPG
     
  6. F5VHZ

    F5VHZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    According to Trump if we all raise our heads above the atmosphere and breath in the fresh solar wind it will clear you of the covid virus, and the dead virus cells can be blown away with a few atomic explosions.. Thanks Trump we are all saved.
     

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