MUF predicting.

Discussion in 'General Technical Questions and Answers' started by KE0ZNV, Feb 25, 2021.

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  1. KE0ZNV

    KE0ZNV XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    I'm learning a lot about solar weather. I know basic solar weather for right then and now. there's all of there predicts for different things. what I haven't seen was a predict model for the MUF for the rest of the day and for the next day. is there any sources, websites, etc. is there any hints on solar data that hints the muf is going up or down. any info is helpful to learning all about ham radio and solar weather.



    73, KE0ZNV, Lyle. any info is helpful thanks
     
  2. W1VT

    W1VT Ham Member QRZ Page

    Propagation prediction programs like VOCAP are based on monthly solar flux or sunspot number data. I've read they tried to find shorter time period correlations but they didn't find anything useful.

    This may be a great subject for new research. Especially since so much data is available today to anyone with an Internet connection.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
  3. KE0ZNV

    KE0ZNV XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    yep i agree this is a great subject to research. having a 12 or 24 hour prediction for the MUF. my father and my self wanted to have something to see when the MUF was going to be or high or low. basically a weather forecast just for the MUF.
     
  4. WB2WIK

    WB2WIK Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    I use the bandswitch on my receiver -- takes about 15 seconds to determine where the MUF is.:)
     
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  5. AI3V

    AI3V Ham Member QRZ Page

    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    AG5DB, W6MK and K0UO like this.
  6. KE0ZNV

    KE0ZNV XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    ai3v I have no clue how to read that data. I my got my general last July so I'm still very new to all of ham radio and solar weather. I'm still want to know if there a website for MUF predictions. although if there some video on how to read that chart let me know it looks interesting. it all so look to be very outdated. 1998 was when that was recorded so im not sure if it real time.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
  7. AI3V

    AI3V Ham Member QRZ Page

    Its easy!

    The horizontal axis is frequency.

    The vertical axis is height above the surface of the earth that the radio wave is reflected from.

    You usually see several distinct traces vertically, these are the "layers" of the ionesphere.

    Keep in mind that a ionogram is usually a signal sent straight up and back down from a sounder, so called "nvis".

    For stations apart, the maximum usable frequency will tend to be somewhat higher.

    For best signals between 2 stations you generally pick a frequency about 90% of the muf (maximum usable frequency) our French friends refer to the 90% frequency as "FOT" or "frequency optimum traffic"

    http://www.prc68.com/I/MWI.shtml

    Welcome to the strange world of hf radio propagation :)

    Rege
     
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  8. M0TTQ

    M0TTQ XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    The Aussie Bureau of Meteorology has a "real time" MUF map https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/5 but short term forecasting of DX propagation is a tough market. You can get plenty of forecasts of longer-term probability (eg VOACAP). Even if you learn to read ionograms and compare them to the experiences you have on the bands I expect you will find you can only draw fairly general conclusions.
     
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  9. AI3V

    AI3V Ham Member QRZ Page

    That 1998 ionagram was just the page display from the NOAA website.

    Rege
     
  10. WB2WIK

    WB2WIK Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    Here's a "near real-time" MUF map of the world that updates every 15 minutes.

    https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/5
     

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