MUF predicting.

I'm learning a lot about solar weather. I know basic solar weather for right then and now. there's all of there predicts for different things. what I haven't seen was a predict model for the MUF for the rest of the day and for the next day. is there any sources, websites, etc. is there any hints on solar data that hints the muf is going up or down. any info is helpful to learning all about ham radio and solar weather.



73, KE0ZNV, Lyle. any info is helpful thanks

 

Propagation prediction programs like VOCAP are based on monthly solar flux or sunspot number data. I've read they tried to find shorter time period correlations but they didn't find anything useful.

This may be a great subject for new research. Especially since so much data is available today to anyone with an Internet connection.

 

yep i agree this is a great subject to research. having a 12 or 24 hour prediction for the MUF. my father and my self wanted to have something to see when the MUF was going to be or high or low. basically a weather forecast just for the MUF.

 

I use the bandswitch on my receiver -- takes about 15 seconds to determine where the MUF is.

 

Why try to guess when you can get real time ionosound data?

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/iono/grams.html





More links:
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=ionosounder+&t=fpas&ia=web

Rege

P.S. Some of the signals you see (or hear) sweeping across the band are ionosounders (also called chirpsounders)

If it's only in a ham band its probably somebody checking vswr, if you watch it go across the whole (open) hf spectrum you are seeing a chirpsounder.

 

ai3v I have no clue how to read that data. I my got my general last July so I'm still very new to all of ham radio and solar weather. I'm still want to know if there a website for MUF predictions. although if there some video on how to read that chart let me know it looks interesting. it all so look to be very outdated. 1998 was when that was recorded so im not sure if it real time.

 

Its easy!

The horizontal axis is frequency.

The vertical axis is height above the surface of the earth that the radio wave is reflected from.

You usually see several distinct traces vertically, these are the "layers" of the ionesphere.

Keep in mind that a ionogram is usually a signal sent straight up and back down from a sounder, so called "nvis".

For stations apart, the maximum usable frequency will tend to be somewhat higher.

For best signals between 2 stations you generally pick a frequency about 90% of the muf (maximum usable frequency) our French friends refer to the 90% frequency as "FOT" or "frequency optimum traffic"

http://www.prc68.com/I/MWI.shtml

Welcome to the strange world of hf radio propagation

Rege

 

The Aussie Bureau of Meteorology has a "real time" MUF map https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/5 but short term forecasting of DX propagation is a tough market. You can get plenty of forecasts of longer-term probability (eg VOACAP). Even if you learn to read ionograms and compare them to the experiences you have on the bands I expect you will find you can only draw fairly general conclusions.

 

That 1998 ionagram was just the page display from the NOAA website.

Rege

 

Here's a "near real-time" MUF map of the world that updates every 15 minutes.

https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/5