M6.7 Quake from Turkey effects 40 m Net in North America

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by VE7DXW, Jan 24, 2020.

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  1. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    The RF-Seismograph has picked up the strong earth quake 4 km ENE of Doganyol, Turkey. The quake was reported by USGS at 2020-01-24 17:55 UTC. It created a strong attenuation of the shortwave radio bands, especially on 40 m, in advance of the quake. In North America the popular 40 m net on 7.2835 MHz was severely disrupted. The RF-Seismograph recorded the eminent quake more than 1 h earlier at 16:30 UTC! The ionosphere is still very weak, but it is recovering now.


    We record many quakes and they do effect propagation! So if you are interested to learn more about it, join the RF-Seismograph group at: MDSR.io

    Please feel free to forward this message to third parties.

    All the best and 73;

    Alex - VE7DXW
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2020
    WP3KA, K7GYB, W7GST and 10 others like this.
  2. KA2IRQ

    KA2IRQ Ham Member QRZ Page

    Has there been any discussion on the effects of the cluster of earthquakes that occurred recently in Puerto Rico?
    KF4ZKU and KD7HCW like this.
  3. W0AEW

    W0AEW Ham Member QRZ Page

    This is the second time that I've found the milk in my refrigerator to have gone sour an hour before a major earthquake. Evidently earthquakes cause milk to sour.
    KR3DX, CA7OKD, KM4FVI and 9 others like this.
  4. KA0HCP

    KA0HCP XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    How peculiar. My Pecorino cheese turned into sheep's milk after the last earthquake! Baaa.
    KR3DX, AF9US, K4WWK and 2 others like this.
  5. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    We are releasing a daily report and it can be accessed from our group. Please join the group.


    Look at the “Messages” section and select the date that you are interested in.

    KF4ZKU, KA2IRQ and KD7HCW like this.
  6. NG9F

    NG9F Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    W4HM, KR3DX, MW1CFN and 6 others like this.
  7. KD7HCW

    KD7HCW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Correlation is not causation, but there's no harm in gathering data to see where it leads. Interesting experiment!
    VE3VXO, MW1CFN, VE7DXW and 4 others like this.
  8. KI6PMD

    KI6PMD Ham Member QRZ Page

    Here come the ALPHA HOTELS again ! & it is not 4/1/2020 yet !
  9. KD7HCW

    KD7HCW Ham Member QRZ Page

    This is a good answer to the post, NG9F; and I want to add to it because there is a severe lack of critical thinking in society today.

    The claim was "It created a strong attenuation of the shortwave radio bands" i.e., a statement of fact that it caused it when there's no proof in particular that it did - just a correlation.

    Science follows slightly different rules than logic because it is deductive reasoning (thesis) combined with experimentation and measurements (proof). So, let's say 20 people ate tomato soup and died after in the same week. Now we have statistical significance and the coroners might want to test that soup. They probably wouldn't want to say "Oh, there's correlation but I don't see the causation." They need to make sure there is no causation.

    Then there's the question of a multi-variable problem. Every time I turn the switch to "on" the lights turn on. Every time I turn it to "off" they turn off. Hmm. There is 99% correlation here (the 1% was that during a power outage it didn't work). Therefore, I can conclude that flipping the switch affects the lights. There is cause (switch) and effect (lights) directly correlated.

    Note I still don't know the underlying cause. Sometimes that's OK. Sailors watching clouds form knew a storm was coming based on the shape of the clouds without knowing the cause. And I really don't need to know that there are electrons flowing through wires to use a light switch. I just need to know that using it turns my lights on and off. Just knowing a correlation exists regularly is sometimes useful in and of itself.

    Let's pretend that when there are earthquakes, 62% (or some other statistically significant number of our invention) of the time prop is affected. So, assuming the rest of the math is done correctly, we have a correlation between earthquakes and prop. But wait! Maybe it's not the earthquake affecting the prop. Maybe there is a huge shift of magma that causes both the earthquake and prop change! Or maybe prop is affected when the dwarves who are mining and causing the quakes are having their QSO party! That part we don't know. If all I want to do is plan my battery run DXpedition, I just want to know if I should bother trying to transmit after an earthquake because I don't want to waste battery on no prop.

    Jumping to a conclusion that the correlation is the causation is wrong, but so is jumping to a conclusion that a correlation implies no causation or that a correlation itself isn't useful. The answer is: we don't know, more research required.
    W4HM, K4HPD, KR3DX and 11 others like this.
  10. W8AAZ

    W8AAZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    I would ignore/discourage someone inserting national politics into a ham radio specific discussion. Regardless, I myself had noticed such horrid propagation on 40M daylight hours during the past year, that it has seriously curtailed my operating on the band. Interrupted net? Some of the regular regional nets are practically inaudible most of the time, here!
    KF4ZKU, KK4NSF, AC8KW and 1 other person like this.

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