M6.7 Quake from Turkey effects 40 m Net in North America

The RF-Seismograph has picked up the strong earth quake 4 km ENE of Doganyol, Turkey. The quake was reported by USGS at 2020-01-24 17:55 UTC. It created a strong attenuation of the shortwave radio bands, especially on 40 m, in advance of the quake. In North America the popular 40 m net on 7.2835 MHz was severely disrupted. The RF-Seismograph recorded the eminent quake more than 1 h earlier at 16:30 UTC! The ionosphere is still very weak, but it is recovering now.



We record many quakes and they do effect propagation! So if you are interested to learn more about it, join the RF-Seismograph group at: MDSR.io

Please feel free to forward this message to third parties.


All the best and 73;


Alex - VE7DXW

 

Has there been any discussion on the effects of the cluster of earthquakes that occurred recently in Puerto Rico?

 

This is the second time that I've found the milk in my refrigerator to have gone sour an hour before a major earthquake. Evidently earthquakes cause milk to sour.

 

How peculiar. My Pecorino cheese turned into sheep's milk after the last earthquake! Baaa.

 

We are releasing a daily report and it can be accessed from our group. Please join the group.

https://groups.io/g/MDSRadio

Look at the “Messages” section and select the date that you are interested in.



A

 

post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy of reasoning:

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,_ergo_propter_hoc

my grandpa at a bowl of Campbell's tomato soup and then he died. i will never eat Campbell's tomato soup!!!!!!!!!!!

http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

 

Correlation is not causation, but there's no harm in gathering data to see where it leads. Interesting experiment!

 

Here come the ALPHA HOTELS again ! & it is not 4/1/2020 yet !

 

This is a good answer to the post, NG9F; and I want to add to it because there is a severe lack of critical thinking in society today.

The claim was "It created a strong attenuation of the shortwave radio bands" i.e., a statement of fact that it caused it when there's no proof in particular that it did - just a correlation.

Science follows slightly different rules than logic because it is deductive reasoning (thesis) combined with experimentation and measurements (proof). So, let's say 20 people ate tomato soup and died after in the same week. Now we have statistical significance and the coroners might want to test that soup. They probably wouldn't want to say "Oh, there's correlation but I don't see the causation." They need to make sure there is no causation.

Then there's the question of a multi-variable problem. Every time I turn the switch to "on" the lights turn on. Every time I turn it to "off" they turn off. Hmm. There is 99% correlation here (the 1% was that during a power outage it didn't work). Therefore, I can conclude that flipping the switch affects the lights. There is cause (switch) and effect (lights) directly correlated.

Note I still don't know the underlying cause. Sometimes that's OK. Sailors watching clouds form knew a storm was coming based on the shape of the clouds without knowing the cause. And I really don't need to know that there are electrons flowing through wires to use a light switch. I just need to know that using it turns my lights on and off. Just knowing a correlation exists regularly is sometimes useful in and of itself.

Let's pretend that when there are earthquakes, 62% (or some other statistically significant number of our invention) of the time prop is affected. So, assuming the rest of the math is done correctly, we have a correlation between earthquakes and prop. But wait! Maybe it's not the earthquake affecting the prop. Maybe there is a huge shift of magma that causes both the earthquake and prop change! Or maybe prop is affected when the dwarves who are mining and causing the quakes are having their QSO party! That part we don't know. If all I want to do is plan my battery run DXpedition, I just want to know if I should bother trying to transmit after an earthquake because I don't want to waste battery on no prop.

Jumping to a conclusion that the correlation is the causation is wrong, but so is jumping to a conclusion that a correlation implies no causation or that a correlation itself isn't useful. The answer is: we don't know, more research required.

 

I would ignore/discourage someone inserting national politics into a ham radio specific discussion. Regardless, I myself had noticed such horrid propagation on 40M daylight hours during the past year, that it has seriously curtailed my operating on the band. Interrupted net? Some of the regular regional nets are practically inaudible most of the time, here!

 

... membership requested
vy73 from Hamburg/Germany,
Dietmar, DL4HAO

 

Never underestimate the possibilities created by expending massive amounts of energy. Energy rolling through the same medium harboring it then to redistribute and reabsorb it. I guess a chain reaction of events could have some merit in the "RF seismograph" experiment thus deserving more data to nail it down to a more plausible possibility. I have built many seismographs over the years but they failed to work as expected in my localized high RF environment and adjacent truck route. Noise introduced from both ends of the spectrum is not advantageous to a sensitive seismograph. A 1960’s Popular Science magazine article on seismograph construction started it all. Maybe it's time to dust-off, resurrect and readdress the RF induced issues of the latest mid 90’s device I had built. The "RF Seismograph" caption of this article quickly captured my attention for obvious reasons. I can’t grasp a connection with 7 MHz because it seems excessively high connecting events that are inherently low in nature but at the same time I’m keeping my mind open to the possibilities. I'm seeing various links to this RF phenomena being posted so it's off to do some reading!

 

Not again.

 

You have to measure S/N not just noise.... A

 

Here's some documentation from a supposedly scientific source - https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/images/77377/quake-and-tsunami-makes-waves-in-the-atmosphere

Here's another group using post-earthquake detection of gravity waves in the ionosphere - https://earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/sensing-our-planet/warnings-from-the-ionosphere

Unfortunately, there are other things, such as large storms that can cause these waves -https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4683

The science on this is very much mixed. Some groups have documented ionospheric precursors prior to big quakes. Other groups have claimed that the observed effects were due to solar and other geomagnetic causes. Here's a very recent paper on the subject that shows the different arguments - https://www.ann-geophys.net/37/143/2019/ There are other groups of scientists who insist that the effects are mainly attributable to quakes.

I've received dozens of reports of RF precursors since I first discussed my own experience with one. I think the precursor only relates to certain types and magnitudes of quakes - it probably also depends on the location of the observing station. We don't know the mechanism for the precursor, only that it exists and mimics the post-quake effects.

My observation was prior to the 1971 Sylmar quake. Radio signals from the LA area on all bands from 160-20, received in San Jose, were 'ringing' from mid-afternoon of the day before. This ringing has since been explained as Doppler shift caused by the movement of the ionosphere created by these waves. My father, the late W6VPV, was the one who recognized it. He was a very active ham, on the air every night most of his life, and he said he'd observed these strange signals prior to two other large quakes. Dad shared it with my brother and I, but otherwise, didn't tell anybody about it, because he didn't want to be branded a 'kook'.

All I can say is "keep up the good work'.