Issue #39: The Future of Ham Radio

Please join our discussion about what Ham Radio might look like in 10+ years. Our Hamvention issue has quotes from many well-known amateur radio operators who have taken their time to prognosticate on these different possible futures. If you haven't yet seen the article, it can be accessed at this link. Please join us in this discussion and add your own vision of the future! I would very much appreciate it if you could keep the constructive comments geared only to the vision of the future presented, and do not direct any venom towards the authors who took the time to help us all by stoking the discussion. Regards, W7DGJ

 

What I liked about the responses that I received and edited was the variety of both positive and negative developments seen in the ARS for the next stage. It was clear that there were some common-ground discussion points, but each of my respondents came up with their own, unique view of the future. They did so completely free of the "others" so that our readers could get the message, that our radio interests require us to participate, to actively engage in building our future. Maybe that is donating to the ARRL's spectrum defense fund, or perhaps taking more involvement in your local amateur radio club.

 

Sadly, I recommend people not donate to it. Look at the IRS 990, there is no separate Spectrum Defense Fund. Donations go in to the general fund. Anyway, they haven't shown any results, for years and years.

 

Thanks -- I'll take a look at that. I hope you'll post your comments here about the article, or your own future forecasts, after you've read the piece. Thanks!

 

Meh.
Many of the same, recycled comments as seen in the past. I did note the folks with a chance to make some $$ - seemed fairly positive about the future of ARS.

As the legacy equipment 'ages out' many of the modes supported may disappear - analog FM, for example, is seeing a real lack of use - can't say if it is the mode or the population/lack thereof.

The newer digi modes seem to have growing acceptance, for those that can figure out how to use the mode 'properly'. Certainly, the use of computers is growing in most shacks these days - if the photos seen on Zed pages are any indication. New ARS related apps or improved apps seem to pop up on a regular basis. These are a periphery item/issue set, at best.

In 10 years, I don't see any real disruptions outside of direct FedGov intervention.

This 'intervention' may take the form of adding or removing access to parts of the spectrum - mostly so the Gov't can action it off for operating $$$.
Alternatively, this intervention may/could take the form of cracking down on rigs that don't meet 'current' spectrum purity standards - with so-called Grandfathering being eliminated. With no enforcement staff, this is unlikely.

I do find it interesting that many of the 'old school' CW ops seem pretty happy with the new tech radios (QMX style/SDR/digi only) rigs popping up on the market today.

So, the future of ARS? - More of the same we see today, in the next 10 years.

.

 

I don't know where the recycling could come from, as these were all written specifically for this article, by people who are in the know. They're just hams, like you and I, however. So, we'll all see some things in common with each other that will be necessary for the discussion of such a topic. Two of them, I believe, agreed with you that it will be much the same in the next ten years. Others, some edited out, forecasted stuff like nuclear powered transceivers which belong more in the 40-50 year timeframe (if at all).

The key point, I believe, is that we make our own future. By using the spectrum we've got, as one example. Dave, W7DGJ

 

People don't talk to each other these days, they exchange data.

I see the digital modes growing even more. CW will continue only because of the game aspect and dependence on the internet and computers to make it viable. Phone, whether analog or digital will fade away.

The biggest innovation I see will be the explosion of LoRa and Meshtastic stuff. Right now, it's at the state early consumer computers were in the late 70s-early 80s. Soon,you will buy a unit and just stick it in one of your upstairs windows. Setup and connection will be as easy as your wifi setup now. Solar power, tiny antennas, no tests or knowledge needed. No license and no cost. 5 watts will be " high power".

This is where the "new guys" are playing now. No need for ham radio.

There will still be some hams around, preserving the old days. Just like flintlocks, steam engines and horse riding enthusiasts do.

 

In 10 years from now, maybe; a person interested in pursuing Ham Radio can go to their local tattoo parlor and have an FCC approved chip installed in their forehead. Go back to their ham shack or where ever, place their forehead against the latest I-phone screen, communicate with the world without speaking a word, sending a dit or punching a key. Sounds like fun to me. I can hardly wait.

 

You may have noticed that the respondents were all male. I attempted, as best I could, to get some female operators to jump in with their commentary, but we have very few high-level posts filled by women at this time. That will hopefully change. However, one contact of mine (who I am adding to the article this evening with some comments, a bit late but better than never) had an interesting comment about women hams replying to something like this: "None of the women I have recruited have stayed in ham radio for more than a year or two. They report being actively excluded or ridiculed by the wider community. They do not like the way male amateurs talk about women on the air, the dismissive way they are treated at hamfests, the patronizing or insulting comments they get when they operate, and the negative way they are often treated by amateur radio retailers or vendors at shows. Most of the women that I have personally recruited or welcomed have stayed involved technically and are getting a lot out of it but they do not consider themselves to be invested in or involved in the hobby of amateur radio in any way. They would therefore not be motivated to write much about the future of something they don't consider themselves to be part of." Look for this woman's commentary to be included in the piece no later than Tuesday afternoon. Dave, W7DGJ

 

Guess what?Those same jerks that turn off SOME women are the same jerks that turn off SOME men!

Yes, we have a lot of hams that are jerks--and a whole heck of a lot that are not.

Women in ham radio don't need to look hard to find other hams--men and women--who take them for who they are.

 

Steve Hicks, someone I have worked with and genuinely like (and who plays a smart Wizard in D&D) wrote:

"Predicting the future is a difficult business. One of the stories that we hear time and time again from amateur radio operators is that they first became interested in amateur radio in their teenage years only to spend much of their middle years of life raising a family and working on a career. Later in life, they return to find a hobby that is both different in many ways and yet the same. Oftentimes, those individuals fondly remember a piece of equipment or a capability that they could ill-afford in those prior years. Purchasing that equipment or trying out that mode or capability becomes a passion. For this reason, I expect that a fair amount of ham radio will look as it does today: the embrace of nostalgic modes, capabilities and equipment for the enjoyment of the operator.

I strongly agree.

This bimodal distribution is something that we should take full advantage of. We should not be afraid of it, we should not try and change it, and we should not be judgemental about it.

We absolutely should try and get included in high school and university curriculum, sure! I've worked really hard here and it's had clearly positive results. Clear the decks and give young people full control over a truly capable amateur radio station and then get out of the way. That often (not always) means cheap fast SDRs and messy software. Just let it happen.

We should also partner with organizations like AARP and make it a pleasure to have a turnkey station at a 55+ community, or in assisted living situations, or within an established expensive boomer-friendly HOA neighborhood. Form should follow function, and amaeteur radio really does have a bimodal distribution with respect to age. We can thrive - not just survive - if we accept and support these patterns!

My opinion is that Steve really does understand where ham radio is at in the US, and he has articulated the range of experiences clearly and well. It's totally 100% ok to pick back up where you left off.

And those of us that are picking back up where we left off find a true golden age of radio, where things are done very differently than they were in the 1950s, the 1980s, or the 1990s. There's more than enough room for everyone, and the learning curve really isn't that bad - especially if you buy a Flex. The diversity of modes on the air in the amateur radio service is found nowhere else. But, if we keep trying to enforce a one-size-fits-all mindset, then we'll kill the goose that is laying golden eggs.

Those golden eggs are people with a true passion for the hobby, that operate with joy, who teach others, who go on to have meaningful technical careers, who inform the FCC about humanitarian and high-quality regulations, and who mentor the next generation.

If we want the next 10 years to be good ones, then we do need to wholeheartedly accept and support the reality that Steve describes, while also *firmly* opening the hobby to new audiences and underrepresented people. This isn't an either/or, but a very powerful both/and.

 

Please check out the additional comments that were added to the article, from Michelle Thompson, CEO of Open Research Institute in San Diego. Here are those comments, which are clipped out of T&E issue #39:

Michelle Thompson (W5NYV, CEO, Open Research Institute):

“The fact is that this is the very best time for amateur radio in our entire history. It's never been cheaper, faster, or better. Open Source software allows a modestly priced SDR to do literally almost anything. With a couple of clicks one can get an ADS-B receiver or a spectrum analyzer or a DVB-S2 transmitter, all for free.

So . . . we should be seeing a huge uptake of interest and activity in amateur radio, like we do with software development and “coding”. The decline of interest in hardware vs. software is a big topic right now at universities as they are seeing far fewer people studying digital/hardware design. The decline is largely explained by big increases in those studying how to “write apps” and who “want to be a software developer."

This is understandable because software design has been lucrative as a career and being a developer is generally admired. But the way I see it, decreasing numbers of people studying electronics and hardware design will only worsen the existing shortage of FPGA, chips, and board-level designers in ten years. I believe this underlying trend may have something to do with the stagnant growth in hardware-related hobbies like ours.

We have seen a ~20% decline in the percentage of women licensees in the US over the past 10 years, from 15% to 11%. There has been no rebound after Covid. So, that 10-year timeline you ask about will very likely be a future with fewer and fewer women in the amateur radio services. Overall growth has been stagnant, so this isn't a case where the decline matches an overall trend. Hams are aging, becoming more male, and much more likely to be white than the general population.”

 

I have enjoyed the many upbeat and optimistic views and gee, do I EVER wish they come to pass!

But my comments in the OP were meant as a warning. I fear we are SO disconnected from the Part 97 SERVICE perception by the FCC, that we will be essentially ambushed by the FCC as a total surprise.

I hold the FCC responsible for this. For a communications agency, the COMMUNICATIONS with the 700,000 plus Part 97 licensees is remarkably modest( I can think of other word choices but don't see that as constructive).

The FCC should FREQUENTLY be addressing us in a 'how we doing?' mode.

I see none of that.

Other than raising fees and and an occasional NAL release-- what is the FCC doing to FOSTER and ENABLE the Part 97 service?

In an age where young men and women are NOW foregoing technical careers--the ultimate irony of early STEM activities-- where is the PARTNERSHIP of the FCC to the Part 97 service to ENABLE and USE ham radio as a viable TOOL?

HUGE opportunity. Its not JUST our step to take.

The FCC needs to be at Hamvention, every year. Fireside chats as video on Zed, every quarter. Some examples...

FCC suggesting TRAINING tracks in partnership with Part 97. FCC suggesting 'science exploration ' tracks in partnership with Part 97...two ideas of many. You get the idea.

Here's hopin'...

What some are interpreting as 'hands off' is more likely ' don't want to get involved'. That is a FATAL formula for Part 97 if the FCC continues in that track. And, BTW, if they scream 'resource limited', don't believe it.

Commit to progress.

Hey--FCC : wanna look at a fellow Executive branch agency where they are attacking these issues? Look no further than the USPTO. If they can do it you can do it.

73
Chip W1YW

 

Thank you , this is really well said.

As a member of FCC TAC, amateur radio came up prominently in a recent Advanced Spectrum Sharing Working Group meeting, with a suggestion from Greg Lapin (ARRL) to use publicly available data from HF contacts to advance propagation research. Propagation models are central to the discussions about regulating dynamic spectrum sharing, which is a frontline issue for the FCC.

The value of the amateur service is recognized at the FCC. However, this recognition and involvement is intermittent and situational, and because it's by definition non-commercial, it's harder to impedance-match to the commercially-oriented FCC missions. We need more amateur operators on advisory committees, more participation in the comment process, and more people involved in legislative affairs. We aren't absent from the process, but we're not present enough to truly protect what we currently have, and this means that the future is definitely at risk.

We can't do this without a functional ARRL, and ARRL can't do it alone.

Thank you for speaking up so clearly and making such a clear call to action. And, highlighting the USPTO - this is a solid model.

-Michelle

 

Michelle,

The FCC TAC are a great group who are volunteering their time for the benefit of Part 97. Thanks to all who are involved.

But its a fraction of what the FCC needs to do. A strong FCC director, as with the USPTO, can assert that direction to better partnership with the Part 97 service.

I don't see this as an ARRL issue--its larger than that. And its an FCC problem.

US colleges are losing US eng and tech students left and right and filling the classrooms with foreign students--who pay the outrageous tuition.

US students see high costs and other 'career' options. As you know, we need to give US students OTHER paths to training in eng and science. Other than college. Ham radio screams as one of those options for training

73
Chip W1YW