You may discount all of the below if you wish. I don't care. Pass it of as idle speculation if that makes (others) more comfortable. The vaccine is being made as we speak. If you set a date, then you will not meet the expectations of an unruly crowd of 300 million. The vaccine was created in Waltham MA, 5+ weeks ago and is , apparently, being produced in limited quantities for testing, here in the 'Boston cluster'. The effectiveness is unknown. I presume we may hear something about it in a few weeks. Right now we will hear nothing. The CDC will always veer on the conservative side rather than tout a vaccine with unknown efficacy. Better to work at killing the tendrils with quarantine. At least for the next few weeks. Likely vials will be available by June for distribution to elderly and 'preexisting conditions' in 'cluster areas' only. The objective is singular : keep the health care system working by not swamping it. IF the health care system breaks down then you get an Iran situation, with corpses piled up in the morgues and few willing to do the burial. So the US is really an archipelago of clusters that you work hard to isolate, and buy enough time to implement the vaccine within said clusters. Let's hope it stays this way in the next 2-3 weeks.
This FINALLY leaked into the media... I overheard earlier at a Belmont coffeeshop, presumably by those technically savvy.. Never sit next to a scientist(stranger) if you are a scientist. Not if you want secrets kept. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11...s-vaccine-trial-without-usual-animal-testing/
Maybe you are referring to the Moderna vaccine which is starting human trials and skipping the animal trial step. There are still many other trials which are normally done. In order to use it publicly at scale many regulatory steps and further trials would need to be waived. I'm not saying it couldn't happen. The last time a vaccine like this skipped steps was for the "swine flu" in 1976; elevated cases of Guillian Barre syndrome were a result, though still rare, and they can happen spontaneously as well. BTW, the government had to fully indemnify the vaccine producers to get them to agree to produce the vaccine, and paid for those damages. The government will have to do the same thing again.
From a preprint I saw, just submitted New England Journal of Medicine-- "We found that viable virus 36 could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on 37 cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel."
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announced a statewide order banning gatherings of 100 or more people. The restrictions apply to any gathering held in an auditorium, stadium, theater, meeting hall or outdoor venue and includes fairs, parades and festivals. https://www.clevescene.com/scene-an...-banning-all-gatherings-of-100-or-more-people
SO what? Hamvention is weeks and weeks away. The order is more than likely to be rescinded in a few weeks.
Maybe this has been pointed out already ... but I suspect many travel plans .. especially supporting companies but also individuals will be needing to make travel decisions well in advance of the Hamvention date. I would guess the go/no go decsion on having the HV by early April. You hear the term 'in an abundance of precaution' used a lot to justify various cancellations. My prediction: it will be cancelled. My other prediction: ham gear to be available at very good prices this year!
I'm going to start calling this the Chinese flu. The name should really apply particularly with what the Chinese are doing now.
