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Good News for Amateur Radio Operators

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by KD0NDG, Nov 30, 2018.

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  1. KD0NDG

    KD0NDG Ham Member QRZ Page

    I've begun a plunge and have started extracting information from the FCC Database. The results are better than I expected, and I wanted to share it with you all! We are at about a 1.4:1 ratio; meaning 1.4 new operators for every one that leaves. I'm currently developing a system to automatically track this and other important data. You may view my full article here:
    http://www.kd0ndg.com/index.php/2018/11/30/amateur-radio-report-is-in/
    [​IMG]
     
    EA4WF, KK6JKC, W6KPR and 4 others like this.
  2. WB8LBZ

    WB8LBZ XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Wow, cool stuff. I love it when data gets pushed around.

    73, Larry WB8LBZ
    El Paso, TX
     
    KK6JKC likes this.
  3. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    I hate to be a cynic on this....but the FCC data base is notoriously behind in CANCELLING licenses. It took months and months and months for me to cancel a (defunct) club call, and that is with me actively trying!

    Basically there is up to a 2 year overall lag on cancellations, and that two years is often built into the system for deceased hams that do not renew. So the cancellation curve doesn't tell you a heck of a lot as a snapshot. Also, there are many hams who hold licenses but are essentially cancelled due to bad health or non-interest. This may take 2-5 to reflect in the curve.

    If you translate your cancellation curve by the two years, it basically tracks your growth curve right now.

    IOW, any growth, if real, is feeble.

    It will be interesting to see what 2 or three more years of data shows; I suspect real growth that is modest, but no longer feeble.

    73
    Chip W1YW
     
    KG5CJA, G3SEA, KR3DX and 5 others like this.
  4. KD0NDG

    KD0NDG Ham Member QRZ Page

    Chip W1YW,
    I moved the cancellations back 2 years this is what it looks like:
    [​IMG]
    That certainly paints a different picture. I also agree that this chart is not a true reflection of interest in the hobby, but I had to start somewhere. Thanks for your insight.


    KD0dNDG
     
    N2AMM, AG5DB, N4FZ and 1 other person like this.
  5. KQ6XA

    KQ6XA Ham Member QRZ Page

    Who else is in the running with me to be the Last Advanced Class Operator?

    Do you think you have a chance?
    There are currently about 40,000 of us.
    14 years ago, there were 80,000 of us.

    We diminished by about 3000 during 2018.

    At the present rate, we can project that we will hit zero Advanced Class Operators by year 2031.
    But, the loss rate will probably lessen by 25 years from now, as a few of us stubborn Advanceds will probably live to be at least 95 or 100 years old.

    The Last Advanced Class Operator will probably happen between the years 2045 and 2065.

    Perhaps FCC will forcibly grandmother us into some new all-encompassing license class by then.
    (If there is still an FCC by then)
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2018
    KG5CJA, N5YCK, N6RRY and 11 others like this.
  6. KG3L

    KG3L XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Should learn how to spell amateur .
     
    NE1U, 4X1ST and WN1MB like this.
  7. K3XR

    K3XR Ham Member QRZ Page

    How would you measure the number of new hams that remain active over their 10-year license term?
    How do you measure overall those who are active in the hobby? Does quantity also mean quality?
     
    KR3DX and K2DFC like this.
  8. KQ4MM

    KQ4MM XML Subscriber QRZ Page


    Im with you Bonnie ..... 57 years young and no incentive to upgrade.
     
    KR4HH, KD0QG and KE4OH like this.
  9. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    What you did was an excellent indication that US Part 97 is not in its death throws, and actually holding its own.

    As I said, I think the recent exponential tail is real and that we should tout our numbers.

    Ham radio is neither antiquated, trivialized, nor dead.

    !

    73
    Chip W1YW
     
    G3SEA, N4QX, DL6BCX and 2 others like this.
  10. KE4OH

    KE4OH Ham Member QRZ Page

    I'm in the running with you Bonnie.

    Haters hate this: We are the only license class where 100% of us passed the 13 wpm Morse Code test.

    73 de Steve KE4OH
    dit dit
     
    W4ABC, N6RRY, KR4HH and 11 others like this.

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