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cycle 25

Discussion in 'Ham Radio Discussions' started by KA1BSZ, Feb 16, 2019.

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  1. KC8VWM

    KC8VWM Moderator Volunteer Moderator QRZ Page

    If you want my thinking on the subject, I think we are going to observe the current cycle start similar to where the last cycle ends.

    solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

    For example, if we were to follow the historical trend occurring from 2008 through 2010, we can see a similar pattern starting to emerge from 2018 through 2020.

    In 2010 we can observe the cycle started to peak. Similarly, I am predicting it to start elevating in the early months of 2020 in a similar manner.

    Of course, predictions are just that but we can get a good idea over the next few months if things will continue to follow historical patterns and trends. So far it seems to be doing that.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2019
  2. W1VT

    W1VT Ham Member QRZ Page

    I've worked a lot of really nice DX on 160 through 30 meters these past few days. XX9D Macao was booming in on 80M!
     
  3. K6UJ

    K6UJ XML Subscriber QRZ Page



    I like your overview and personal prediction. Makes sense. Like you said the next few months should indicate if things will follow the past patterns and trends. In the meantime I am operating mostly on 20 and 40 for DX. 40 for me is proving to be the DX money band through the low of the cycle.

    73,
    Bob
    K6UJ
     
  4. KA1BSZ

    KA1BSZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    look at the first chart.....look where the LAST solar min was, now count every year until you get to 19. Now look where the graph is now. I've been in radio communications since 1960. every time we get a solar min, yes the low bands 160,80,40 were wicked great. the solar min of cycle 19,20,21,22,23 and now 24. THIS solar min is about the worst I have ever seen. Usually we see dx stations pop up on 40 meters, not this year. EA9JE has a 4 element 40 meter bean is on 7.195 most every day and he has not been head since early last month and his signal was an s5. most times he is a strong s9 or 10 over. now look at where the solar MAX are. We are in the 11th year and as my experience tells me that the bottom of solar cycle 24 has pretty much ended. So now you ask how can you tell? well..first what is being heard on the bands. Mind you I do not have a 150 foot tower/s with 6 element yagis and rhomics,etc I have vertical and a mobile station. Last year in the winter, 30 meters was hopping with dx and 20 was ok ( europe,NA,SA, some far east ) 40 meters was hopping with a few dx stations as well as every zone in the USA including alaska and HI. THIS winter...not so much. Hardly every hear the 7's,6's 0's5's. it is mostly 4's,9's,8's and 3's. once in a great while you might hear a ve4,TG, TI. 30 meters you maybe a little bit more, but not a hell'va lot. On 20 the prorogation over the years,whereas the band would be OPEN to some where in the world. not here in Vermont. Most favorite band in all my years of hamming was 15. I haven't hear anything on that band in many years. I started in short wave radio and then to 11 meters and got my first ticket in 1974 and let expire for a while until 1978.Back when I was a young boy, I remember our first tv set and in 1959 one early summer day seeing all the tv channels 2-13 ( 2-7) had this " skip " on tv and my dad's police radio monitor ( 30-50 mc ) was packed with southern police and fire calls and those bands were open 24/7. The SKIP on 11 meters was an s9 plus every day. Couldn't talk to your friends 10 miles away, you had to wait until the sun went down. So my friend look at the charts and see where we are now. If you've been in radio as long I have, think you'll agree of these findings. however, nobody knows if and when the actual bottom will be nor the max until it's past. hay 73 and gl..de KA1BSZ/M ( 7.070,14.070 daily 2-5 pm local )
     
  5. KA1BSZ

    KA1BSZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    really? well up here in Vermont we hear receiver hiss.
     
  6. G8ADD

    G8ADD Ham Member QRZ Page

    The problem that I have with predicting from that graph is that the last sunspot minimum was unusually - even freakishly - long and deep. The prediction assumes that this current minimum will also be unusually long and deep. I don't know the basis of this prediction, but it does not strike me as sound to assume that the current minimum will be unusually long and deep just because the last one was. Look at the last century of sunspot cycles and there seems to be no evidence of a pattern in the depth and duration of minima. Gaze into crystal balls as much as you like, but sooner or later the sun will reveal its intentions!
     
  7. W4NNF

    W4NNF XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Probably a little optimistic. It took two years before conditions began to improve when 24 began. ;)
     
  8. KC3EPA

    KC3EPA Ham Member QRZ Page

    I can not control sunspots or solar cycle.
    Looking at Sun of course is not really fun spots.
    I make the best of what is available.

    I see skip on the 11 meter band daily do to just the number of people talking.
    I use 20 during day with many European contacts.
    Forty day and throughout half of night for 400 to 500 mile jumps and some European.
    Eighty is great at nite.
    I take whatever is open.

    Now when the sun is active 10 is super great and 6 can be ok.
    Actually all bands are better to a degree.

    I just use what God gives.
     
    N1VAU likes this.
  9. WD0BCT

    WD0BCT Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Couple of nights ago I wasn't sleeping well so I went down to my basement shack and listened on 40M. Band was very quiet with the exception of a HI station working a bunch of stateside stations. He was coming in very load and clear. I listened as the KH7 station responded to the the very orderly pile up (due to the hour there were only a few stations). As they dwindled I thought I would give a call with my 50W transceiver and stealth inverted Tee. I was amazed that he came right back to me with a 57 report. Shortly afterword the KH7 station started calling CQDX, no NA stations.

    I am convinced that the number of operators on the air at any given time is way down compared to my first period of being an active ham (1974-96). We may have the highest number of licensed amateur radio operators ever, but I doubt that many of them spend much time on the air. Hams complain about propagation but the real problem is that it doesn't take much of an excuse to stay off the air today.
     
    W8IXI and AD5HR like this.
  10. KI4WCQ

    KI4WCQ Ham Member QRZ Page

    Charts nice to look at, just like SWR meters. Until I got both, I didn't know that I had problems and shouldn't be making QSOs.
     
    WD0BCT likes this.

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