Cycle 25 Shocker

Discussion in 'Ham Radio Discussions' started by N2AU, Jul 1, 2020.

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  1. WN1MB

    WN1MB XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Coincidentally, it's that time of year again for computer modeled hurricane path predictions. Spread The Fear.
     
  2. W3ATV

    W3ATV XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Funny thing is that they still can't tell me if it is going to rain tomorrow, let alone something 93 million miles from here.

    I stopped reading after the third sentence when they said "however forecasting these features accurately in advance remains elusive." Why bother reading any further.

    One thing for certain- I will tell you with some degree of accuracy how good the next cycle will be, right after it is over. LoL! Check back on the Zed in 11 years! (If I am still alive!) :D:p:cool::rolleyes::)
     
    AG5CK, WA1GXC, WN1MB and 2 others like this.
  3. KK5JY

    KK5JY Ham Member QRZ Page

    Meanwhile, some of us have already been making good use of the propagation we have, even with zero SSN. :)

    30m and 40m have had some really nice DX recently, and the ES season has also provided some fantastic openings.

    AR becomes a lot more fun (and far more interesting) when one is willing to give up depending on 15m and 20m. ;)
     
    G8ADD, WJ4U, W2VW and 3 others like this.
  4. NL7W

    NL7W Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    You are an optimist.

    A flux of 69 is not so hot... the Sun is so dull.

    Today.PNG
     
    KA4DPO likes this.
  5. KA4DPO

    KA4DPO Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    The abstract posted by the OP says, the SC25 Prediction Panel indication that SC25 will be similar to SC24. I think he may have misinterpreted the bottom line. The green dot in the last chart represents the panels consensus.

    You might want to re-read the document. The prediction panels assessment is that SC25 will be similar to SC24, as represented by the green dot in the last chart.
     
  6. WR2E

    WR2E Ham Member QRZ Page

    I read the whole thing and though they were saying two different things... in one place they said same as last, and in another they said much higher... I don't think they know what they are saying! I need to read it again.

    It appears that the PURPLE dot is showing the prediction of this paper, and the GREEN dot is what the international NOAA/NASA co-chaired Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel is predicting.

    Oh,,, one more thing... the RED dots in Fig 4 are where they 'backtracked' their Hilbert Transform method to see how well it fit the historic reality and that's why they're saying they can predict the future. If the shoe fits...
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
    KA4DPO likes this.
  7. KK5JY

    KK5JY Ham Member QRZ Page

    My logbook says otherwise. ;)
    20m and 15m have certainly had poor performance, no doubt.

    So I just don't use them. :)

    The trick is to use the bands that work. I'm not sure why people struggle with that, but that's their station's challenge. :)
     
    NL7W, NN4RH and W2VW like this.
  8. AF2Z

    AF2Z Ham Member QRZ Page

    The prediction panel completely blew the SC24 prediction, saying it would be more active than SC23. So much for consensus.
     
    KA4DPO likes this.
  9. W2VW

    W2VW XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Additionally, there are a lot of older operators who believe the coat hanger works as well as a monobander on 10 when it's open fallacy.
     
    AG5CK likes this.
  10. WR2E

    WR2E Ham Member QRZ Page

    I think the most basic premise of that paper could be stated as:

    The smaller the deltaT, the greater the next cycle.
     

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