Discussion in 'Ham Radio Discussions' started by N2AU, Jul 1, 2020.
They used lots of big words and big paragraphs. Made my head hurt!
So, their prediction of sunspot numbers for Cycle 25 is dependent on their prediction of the Cycle 24 "terminator" occurring between 2020.29 and 2020.75-- i.e., by September. If the terminator doesn't occur by September we can start saying goodbye to a rerun of 1960's like propagation conditions in the next cycle.
But I'm not really clear on if we will know in real time when the Cycle 24 termination event has occurred or whether that is something that is to be determined in a future hindcast...
My takeaway-- don't bet the farm.
Me too. Terminators? Cycles? Sunspots? I think this means when the sun comes up we will see hunter/killer robots riding into town on motorcycles. I think I saw this in a movie once.
Predictions are hard, especially about the future. I'll wait to see how things turn out.
Just in case I checked the zed database - no one named Sarah Connor with a ham license.
That one appears to have attended a few Grateful Dead concerts!
Now THAT has a basis in fact that you can sink your teeth into.
I agree. Let's see them get more accurate at predicting the past; then; maybe, just maybe we can put a little faith in their predictions of the future.
The number of June bugs in 1960 vs. the number this year leads me to predict that the peach crop may be the most plentiful in... in... in... the last three years.
I can't wait for an abundance of peach ice cream and peach cobbler. My spoon is ready!
When they say “phenomenological model”, that’s physics-speak that means "guess".