Are You Ready for the Next Solar Cycle?

W1YW · Mar 9, 2020

KD8SAV said: ↑

I'd be happy to see prop like I saw in 1979 when I was living in Alaska. The lower 48 was 40 over 9 on 10 and 15 meters. I don't think I'll ever see that again - I'm 71 now.
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..and you were 30 over here!

KD8SAV · Mar 9, 2020

I was operating as KL7JER. We may have worked back then. I operated my first contest in February 1979 in the Arrl Cw Contest.

K0SAV · Mar 13, 2020

W1YW said: ↑

View attachment 630062

You probably won't have to wait too long...a few week's back, sunspots from the NEW CYCLE 25 cycle were found:

https://www.space.com/new-sunspot-solar-cycle-begins.html

and the consensus is that solar MAX will happen in between 2023-2025. See, for example:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/co...5-predictionsforecasts-by-1-the-panel-2-nasa/

Right now we are towards the end of the very bottom of poor HF conditions, and by the end of the year---perhaps going into late Spring 2021-- there will be a clear improvement in HF propagation: a transition from 'poor' to occasional 'fair', and much later on, 'good'. 'Excellent' will be rare-- so don't plan on 24 hour a day worldwide prop on 10m in 2024...and there will still be plenty of lousy HF prop days well into next year. But they will be less common .

The attached graph is a --ROUGH-- rule of thumb of what to expect for the trend, and when, for cycle 25. Because predictions suggest a similar PEAK value of cycle 25 to cycle 24, I superposed cycle 24 as a very approximate prediction for cycle 25. The black demarcation is Jan 2021.

For newbies---by the end of the Fall, we should see SOME better chances for easy DX paths at HF, and lower sky noise. Your patience will be rewarded!

73
Chip W1YW
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I hope you are right with that one! I'm lucky to have operated through two excellent solar cycles. I feel I won't make it to the next one. I'd love to show newer hams what they've been missing.

NZ5F · Mar 13, 2020

one more tower to get installed and a few more antennas to go up and i am ready. inside the shack is more or less fine though a K4D would look awful sweet in here.

Are You Ready for the Next Solar Cycle?

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