Are You Ready for the Next Solar Cycle?

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by W1YW, Feb 14, 2020.

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  1. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    solarcyle25 copy.jpg

    You probably won't have to wait too long...a few week's back, sunspots from the NEW CYCLE 25 cycle were found:

    https://www.space.com/new-sunspot-solar-cycle-begins.html

    and the consensus is that solar MAX will happen in between 2023-2025. See, for example:

    https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/co...5-predictionsforecasts-by-1-the-panel-2-nasa/

    Right now we are towards the end of the very bottom of poor HF conditions, and by the end of the year---perhaps going into late Spring 2021-- there will be a clear improvement in HF propagation: a transition from 'poor' to occasional 'fair', and much later on, 'good'. 'Excellent' will be rare-- so don't plan on 24 hour a day worldwide prop on 10m in 2024...and there will still be plenty of lousy HF prop days well into next year. But they will be less common .

    The attached graph is a --ROUGH-- rule of thumb of what to expect for the trend, and when, for cycle 25. Because predictions suggest a similar PEAK value of cycle 25 to cycle 24, I superposed cycle 24 as a very approximate prediction for cycle 25. The black demarcation is Jan 2021.

    For newbies---by the end of the Fall, we should see SOME better chances for easy DX paths at HF, and lower sky noise. Your patience will be rewarded!

    73
    Chip W1YW
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
    K0SAV, KA1BSZ, UT7UX and 22 others like this.
  2. KG4BFR

    KG4BFR XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Dream on Dream Big....
    We are actually in a Marauder Minimum and therefore we should be pulling up and see gradual Dx around the Year 2090
    73 de KG4BFR
     
    KA1BSZ, AC2FO, NI7I and 4 others like this.
  3. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Betecha a cookie DX will be better by this time next year;-)

    A big... M and M crammed, mouth watering cookie...

    maundercookie.JPG

    :)
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
    KC5JSR, NI7I, K6YZF and 14 others like this.
  4. K3LI

    K3LI Ham Member QRZ Page

    I may take that bet. Please send 2 dozen of the above cookies for samples. I cant bet unless I know what the cookies taste like.
     
    K1BQY, ZS1DX, KC5JSR and 20 others like this.
  5. NH7RO

    NH7RO Ham Member QRZ Page

    To answer the question posed by Chip; YES.

    I've been avidly following Tamitha Skov's frequent solar reports and I am also encouraged by what she's been observing in recent months. My gut feeling is that 25 will be better than what has been forecast so far.

    Since I know it will still be a good while before we can work a lot of dx fairly often I am renewing my satellite as well as my 6 meters setup to keep me busy chasing grids in the meantime. Also repairing and modifying one HF antenna for the CQ WW next month (contests are always good for getting a feel for conditions on all the major bands, too).

    I don't feel the need to make any bets on the outcome of Cycle 25, though, as I just came across a local source for really scrumptious cookies yesterday (bakery at our H.E.B. grocery store makes them).

    "SENSATIONAL BELGIAN WALNUT CHOCOLATE CHIP COOKIE EACH $1.98" is what the label reads and a whole one is almost big enough for a meal unto itself.* As I've said before, everything is big here in Texas. :D I would post a picture but I ate the cookie yesterday and need to get more...

    Thanks again for the encouraging yet realistic prediction/summation of Cycle 25, too.

    73,

    Jeff





    (*K3LI: Probably no H.E.B.s in the DFW area, but if you ever come to South Texas you will find one in almost every town. )
     
    VA3EPM, KB9VXJ, K7SKE and 6 others like this.
  6. K3FHP

    K3FHP XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    I believe that it is highly optimistic to believe the next cycle will be as energetic as this last one. Surely there will be fair days and dx will be certainly be worked on several bands....that was done recently with the SFI below 70 on cw and digimodes but low power, marginal antennas and ssb may be another story completely.
     
    KW4UP, K9RJO and KG4BFR like this.
  7. N9NY

    N9NY XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Anything will be better then we are experiencing now
     
    N4GNO, AJ6KZ, WA4CZD and 11 others like this.
  8. AF8WX

    AF8WX Ham Member QRZ Page

    Booo! No"Maunder Minimum" for me! I don't have that much time. AF8WX
     
    AJ6KZ, WA4CZD, K9RJO and 6 others like this.
  9. KB7GL

    KB7GL Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    As I wrote on my QRZ page, little did I know when I got my first Novice ticket in 1958, that those were the best propagation conditions that I'd experience in my lifetime!
     
    K6PLR, HB9EPC, N7BWB and 15 others like this.
  10. W8AAZ

    W8AAZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    Let's hope we should live so long. Looking in the back of QST in recent times, more and more seem to have run out of luck, hoping for propagation.
     
    AJ6KZ, N0YPD, KC7HDE and 1 other person like this.

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