A 12 Month Report Of the ARS Growth Trends

There has actually been a 2.5% increase in the last 2 years, with 1.7% increase in just the last year alone. That 3% decrease is from the all time high, back in 03. There are a lot of reasons that we started losing licensees at that time, one was expiration of techs licensed back in the early 90's.

Joe

 

I am aware that the total number has increased but I was using the posted figures:

Year Population # Hams Growth Rate
1930 123,202,624 - 19,000
1940 132,164,569 - 56,000 +194%
1950 151,325,798 - 87,000 +55%
1960 179,323,175 - 230,000 +164%
1970 203,211,926 - 263,918 +15%
1980 226,545,805 - 393,353 +49%
1990 248,709,873 - 502,677 +28%
2000 281,421,906 - 682,240 +36%
2008 303,000,000 - 658,648 -3.5% (Est. population)
2009 306,684,279 - 671,525 -2.0% (Est. population


The average age of a ham in 1985 was 46. (FCC database)

It is my assertion that because of the high estimated average age of US amateurs (The Boston Globe estimated in 2008 that the average age of the 659000 licensed ham operators in the United States is in the 60s, and the Scripps Newspaper Group said 60 in 2007) and the lack of young people getting into ham radio* , a downward trend in ARS % vs the general population after decades of double digit growth is not a good sign. The average age increasing by about 20 years in 20 years will make us "endangered" in 20 more years.

*"as of April 2008, of the 655,138 American hams that held licenses issued by the Federal Communications Commission; 30,000 of those licenses were held by hams under age 18", according to Bill Morine of American Radio Relay League

The average age estimates shown above seem reasonable but I thought that for privacy reasons age was no longer an available database, so I am not sure where the ARRL got it's 2008 figures.

.

 

Yes the numbers are going down in the grand overview but there have been many successes. The Rochester Institute of Technology club has seen a dramatic change in the last two years. We went from 1 remaining member to 18 active members who show up at least a few time per quarter and participate. Our club has been steadily growing, even in the recent years it's seen a few here and there go. We nailed our approach to "selling" the club, getting interest and keeping new members in. My local club WB1GOF has seen great strides too. I left for college last summer only to return to what seems like a double of the membership, we almost have no chairs left and that room fits alot of people, alot! What do the two clubs have in common? Enthusiasm to operate and promote. In my local club the average age in not nearly as high as surrounding clubs.
So why not accept the numbers for what they are and go out and have fun! Lets bring the enthusiasm back to the hobby and stop worrying about getting 8 years olds active, a 25...30 year old new ham is just as good, in fact if someone in their late 90's gets licensed let 'em have fun, that's what its all about hihi! No ones going to want to join a hobby that has already signed its fate, go out and help someone else enjoy what we do so much and you never know, they may end up like me along with much of the community and choose to pursue electronics as a career!

 

Since you are successful, might I surmise that you (R.I.T Club) are:
a. not whining about the loss of the morse code requirement
b. encouraging high tech and the merging of technologies
c. not whining about IRLP, Echolink, and D-Star not being "real" ham radio
d. not whining about using the internet to control remote stations
e. in fact encouraging the use of the internet to compliment ham radio.
f. not whining about incentive licensing...still
g. not whining that the digital modes are not real ham radio as only cw and am phone could possibly be real radio
h. not chastising, demeaning, or otherwise being rude to newer hams just because they didn't have the opportunity to pass a cw test or take the "harder"" written test like you did

Sure, Amateur Radio is savable; but this very large and vocal group who wants HR to be the way it was socially and technically in the "old days" needs to stop living in the past or shut up. Otherwise the young computer savvy people we need are going to 'roll their eyes' and move on.

 

I do remember Limerick. We flew in there one afternoon in one of those rare underpowered Comanche 180's. Did you ever fly into the Flying W?

 

Depending on what part of the "Broad Band" spectrum you are talking about, it has been available for consumer use since the late 1980's. During that time, it was taken out of just a military and scientific environment, to an academic and commercial environment. Internet broadband was first commercialized in 1996, and became widely used in about 1998. The actual pieces of, and the first concoctions of broadband actually appeared in the mid 1960's.