2nd X-class X-ray Flare of Sunspot Solar Cycle 25 (October 28, 2021)

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by NW7US, Nov 3, 2021.

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  1. NW7US

    NW7US Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    This imagery captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO link) covers a busy period of activity in October, during which we witnessed an X1.0-class X-ray flare.

    [​IMG]

    From late afternoon October 25 through mid-morning October 26, an active region on the left limb of the Sun flickered with a series of small flares and petal-like eruptions of solar material.

    Meanwhile, the Sun was sporting more active regions at its lower center, directly facing Earth. On October 28, the biggest of these released a significant flare, which peaked at 15:35, 28 Oct 2021 UTC.

    This X1.0 X-ray flare that erupted from Active Region 12887 (we typically drop the left-most digit when referring to an active region, so this is AR2887) is the second X-class flare of Solar Cycle 25, as of the time this video goes live.

    The first X-class flare occurred on 3 July 2021 and measured X1.59. It, too, caused an HF radio blackout. These blackouts will occur more often as the cycle activity increases, because the higher sunspot activity leads to many more flares, and thus cause the geomagnetic storms as the typical CME is erupted out into space, possibly colliding with Earth's magnetosphere.

    Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation. Harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth’s atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground. When intense enough, they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and communications signals travel. Some of these disturbances to communications are called radio blackouts. They cause the lower layers of the ionosphere to become more ionized, which results in the absorption of shortwave radio frequency signals.

    This flare on October 28 was classified as X1.0 in intensity. X-class denotes the most intense flares, while the number provides more information about its strength. An X2 is twice as intense as an X1, an X3 is three times as intense, and so on. Flares that are classified X10 or stronger are considered unusually intense.

    This was the second X-class flare of Solar Cycle 25, which began in December 2019. A new solar cycle comes roughly every 11 years. Over the course of each cycle, the Sun transitions from relatively calm to active and stormy, and then quiet again; at its peak, known as solar maximum, the Sun’s magnetic poles flip.

    Two other eruptions blew off the Sun from this active region: an eruption of solar material called a coronal mass ejection and an invisible swarm of solar energetic particles. These are high-energy charged particles accelerated by solar eruptions.

    The video:



    Credit: NASA/GSFC/SDO

    Thanks for liking and sharing!

    73 de NW7US dit dit
     

    Attached Files:

    GI0LDI, AJ6KZ, W1YW and 3 others like this.
  2. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Yet another reason to make sure you ONLY look at the sun AT NIGHT!

    ;-)
     
    M0MNE, K4WNY, W9MRH and 3 others like this.
  3. W3AMT

    W3AMT Ham Member QRZ Page

    Another reason to use Vintage Tube gear! No EMP problems here. Also back up generator with points ignition.
     
    HB9EPC, VE3EEI and M1WML like this.
  4. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    My KWM-2 has been sitting in the shelf since 2007....if I don't find a reason to use it soon, its sell-it time....

    I wonder what the 'mean time between Carrington-events' is....
     
    M1WML and W3AMT like this.
  5. KQ9I

    KQ9I Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Apparently it's about a 2% chance for the next decade. See https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38918-8

    A Carrington-class event would be bad, but it wouldn't end civilization. I think whatever part of the globe it hits hardest will suffer Hurricane Katrina-like disruption. I.e. no power, no internet, no phone for some time until the big transformers can be replaced. I'm not a prepper, but it's always a good idea to keep a supply of negotiable currency and food and water on hand: a lesson I learned as a medic in Sarajevo during the war (where there was no electricity for 3 years, and people still managed to survive).

    No, what scares me is this: https://eos.org/research-spotlights...newly-identified-extreme-solar-activity-event

    That will be bad. The Carrington event didn't even cause a blip on carbon-14 levels in the atmosphere. The fact that we can detect solar-fricken-storms from over a thousand years ago in a tree ring tells me Mr. Sun can do some nasty, nasty things when he gets ornery. That would almost certainly wipe out most satellites, and blast the entire powergrid on the sun-facing side of the earth. Hopefully, though, we'd have enough warning to just power down the entire national grid and avoid a lot of the damage.
    See https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/finalBoulderPresentation042611 (1).pdf

    Also, solar events don't cause EMP-like damage in consumer electronics. HV power transformers and transmission lines are grounded to earth, providing a path for current to flow. It burns out transformers because the flow of geomagnetically induced currents through the transformer can rapidly heat components that were not designed to withstand this extra energy. I haven't seen anything that suggests that household electronics or ham antenna systems grounded to earth would be adversely affected, but I'm not an expert.
     
    HB9EPC, KE8CCD, K6RWM and 5 others like this.
  6. W4SOU

    W4SOU Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    I remember seeing a documentary on history channel or similar several years ago about a carrington like event happening in current times. I just hope humanity has enough sense to shut off power for a couple of hours to negate it being off weeks or months. Imagine it happening now with the supply chain issues we are having. I have a kx2 i keep in a faraday cage, for the prepper in me.
     
    N1IPU, M1WML and K7YB like this.
  7. M1WML

    M1WML Ham Member QRZ Page

  8. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    You mean the present supply chain fiasco WASN'T caused by a Carrington Event?

    Surely other reason, like the stupidity of 'lean' manufacturing, 'dependence-on-a-distance', and greed weren't the reasons..it MUST be an ACT OF GOD.

    I blame SUNNY!

    (Man, I can't believe I used to TEACH 'lean manufacturing'...as a requirement of the course.)

    ;-)
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
    M1WML and W0PV like this.
  9. GM4BRB

    GM4BRB Ham Member QRZ Page

    Hey guys!! Stock up on peanut-butter sandwiches; these are surely 'the end-times'.
    Now, buy my book: 'How I survived SDR burnout', by investing in used tube gear.
    Available on all good trestle tables for 26¢. No obligations to purchase, cancel anytime.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
    M1WML likes this.
  10. N1IPU

    N1IPU Ham Member QRZ Page


    My biggest concern would be satellites first grid second. People don't understand the criticality of losing GPS for just a short period of time. Most everything now get's its timing from gps so expect banking, navigation and comms to go seriously sideways if not down completely. Even if its quickly restored the shock would be significant to the world economy. We should have a feel for how bad it can get from the Covid fiasco with things like shipping and farming looking at years to recover to a semblance of what it was before. Governments are slow to react and most likely to move in the wrong direction so that drags it out even more.
    Sad thing is most people see things in Movie time and don't get the long term effects and the damage over time. As it stands right now the world is on the knifes edge and economies are hanging by a thread. We cannot withstand another major disruption. It's not 1929-1945 where tech wasn't required for most industries anymore. We don't know how to handle going dark these days. Societies far to dependent on tech. As its seen throughout history 72 hours is the window when society's go haywire and become lawless. It's not a Carrington event that would end societies. It's just a trigger and so far there are other triggers already pushing the slide along. Were already far into the fourth turning today making the next decade a critical point.
     
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