Five scientists associated with National Center for Atmospheric Research, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Maryland Department of Astronomy, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, School of Engineering and Innovation are making a bold prediction about Solar Cycle 25. In the June 27, 2020 document titled “Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude” they write: “... we deduce that sunspot cycle 25 will have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude.” Their prediction is based on the use of the discrete "Hilbert transform" to explore the relationship between magnetic activity cycle band overlap (via terminator separation) and the amplitude of (resulting) sunspot cycles. (All of which I'm completely unfamiliar with.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert_transform They predict with 95% confidence that the cycle 25 amplitude will fall between 153 and 305 spots. This would be in the top five of those observed. There method predicts that SC25 will probably be among the strongest solar cycles ever observed, and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (116 spots) and most likely stronger than the previous. Their prediction model differs from most others prediction models. These other prediction models assume magnetic fields are dynamically passive with respect to the large-scale flows, or are “frozen-in,” using magnetohydrodynamical terminology. Conversely, an explanation for the hemispherically synchronized, rapid, “triggering” of mid- and high-latitude magnetic flux emergence following termination events at the solar equator, requires that the magnetic bands of the Hale magnetic cycle are strong and are dynamically important relative to the flows. Currently, very early indications of the spot pattern are appearing at higher than average latitudes. Historically, high latitude spot emergence has been associated with the development of large amplitude sunspot cycles. Is this a false hope for the coming sun spot cycle? Time will tell. If you want to read how they came about making this prediction, you can check out the details at: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf
This must surely sound confusing to those who have seen all the dire, negative predictions of a dead Cycle 25. Let me use a simple analogy-- Imagine a waveform form of three out-of-phase frequency components. You measure the overall wave and not the individual components. Note that slight translations in phase of one or two of the frequencies has a profound effect on the overall waveform: it can make it with minimum amplitude; it can produce a moderate Q but hi amplitude peak instead. That is similar to what is happening here. Nothing magic about a (fractional)Hilbert Transform ( a type of fractal analysis BTW) or a Mellin transform for that matter. Its the phasing of the components that is unknown and creating such a variety of potential outcomes--and thus the great unknown of Cycle 25 What we call the Sunspot Cycle, is a naive x vs y plot of what's going on, and its the additional aspects that drive the prediction, not sunspot numbers versus time. That X vs y is a nice way to look at it but not a good way to predict. 73 Chip W1YW
All I can say I hope they are correct on this one! I have been saying for months following Tamitha that the predictions for SS25 were complete rubbish!
Nice to have some sort of positive outlook on a very complex subject. The lads atop Haleakala on Maui will be keeping an eye out on these developments with the World's Biggest Solar Telescope. G3SEA/KH6
I can't judge the probabilities but I'm sure you all know Dr. Zharkova and her "double dynamo" theory... Just to put this new study in perspective, Dr. Zharkova says that we are on the verge of a new grand minimum. Its exact effect on the climate is also unclear, but they speak about a major cooling, a small ice age, etc. - I don't follow them. Dr. Zharkova states that her model covers 97 percent of the real data of Sun's activity we collected so far. I think the researchers of this area take her seriously, because they give 5 percent to the occurence of happening such a minimum soon as a consensus. Since this paper states it is 95 percent accurate as well, I'm really curious how big score it is going to hit there...
The models say the hurricane with destroy Florida, the models say 2.5 million will die of COVID then the models number drops to 60,000. I don't worry about the Solar Cycle. HE will take care of that. WE are doing famously to screw it all up with all the man made noise.
anything better than what we have been having is better. In all my 57 years in radio, I have never seen the propagation so bad as this cycle. There were times when even 40 meters was so limited that you could only hear and work 1,2,3,8 and 9 land stations and even the strongest stations were 1,2 and sometimes the 1 landers. No dx on any band. During the lowest of all the other cycles 19,20,21,22,23 there was always some dx on 40 and 20. 1,2,3,4,8,9,and some 5 and zero land operations. this past cycle the qsb has been so deep,never seen it like this. Lately seems it's starting to pick a bit. hearing and seeing on the waterfall the signals coming through. Ya back in the day we did not have all the modes we have now, but back then some of those bands would be so crowded more like sardines in a pill bottle on 20 meters. Then e2 season came around 11 meters, the roar of thousands of people on every channel was S 9 PLUS. 10 and 6 meters a times sounded like a contest weekend on 20. Of course we had analog tv ( loved watching for the tv skip to come in ) watching channel 4 Boston,mass and channel 4 Greenville, south Carolina would bomb in about 9 am and we got an education on the south all day until about 9 pm and then channel 4 Boston would back in time to watch MASH. Wonder what is on those analog tv channels now that there's no tv there? would be nice if we hams got 5 meters back.
As it says in the paper "This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude". Maybe Nobel Prize material, maybe not, but I'm still working on my 'Lowband' antennas. 72, Dave K3FHP
I am all for an active cycle but I'm not going to plan on Taking Down my 160 to 40 meters High Gain antennas just yet!!!
I am not A scientist , but I have been around and working HF since 1978. That means I have seen 3.8 Sun Cycles . I am hoping for the best , expecting the worse. Build A better antenna. Just Sayin. Dave Ae7xg/Ka7qno 73
